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Virtual Reality is going to change the world

notch.net

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Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#101

Post by ekianjo »

wernercd wrote: post #95
ekianjo wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When it doesn't make you nauseous? When it's so close to face-to-face contact that you can replace 10 or 20 percent of your business travel? That's what I am saying, we are FAR from being there. If we even get there.

We are far? Really? 15 years ago, how far were we from having a 6 inch super computer in my pocket that can communicate immediately with anyone in the world? A choice of a million apps? Music on demand? Movies? All in a touch screen device? And Palm/BB/MS are bit players? If we get there? not if... when. Maybe not next year, but you have to be BLIND if you can't see how far CELL PHONES have come in 5, 10, 15, 20 year…

Yeah, we are far from what was refered to in my answer :

> What about when the device is $20 instead of $400? When it doesn't make you nauseous? When it's so close to face-to-face contact that you can replace 10 or 20 percent of your business travel?

We are FAR from having a very cheap VR solution. The VR gear is likely to be 300 or 400+ USD for a while and that will prevent mainstream adoption because it's a peripheral.

We are far from having solved all the problems related to discomfort, nausea, eye strain and stuff that goes with VR systems. Have you had a rift on your heard for 5 hours in a row ? If you had, you'd know what I am talking about.

So close to simulating real human contact? We are not even there YET in terms of 3D technology, we are far from photo realistic human representations on screen, let alone VR.

So yes, we are far from these objectives.

EDIT: and your comment regarding mobile phones to drive VR is senseless. mobile phones are too limited to drive any kind of complex 3d environment, they are limited by battery size, by watts and how temperature they can cope with, and by the size of their processors. The past few years should clearly indicate the pace in mobile phone processing power is slowing down rather than accelerating. You don't get 2x performance every 6 months anymore on a new mobile phone.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#102

Post by interpol_p »

prawn wrote: post #51
interpol_p wrote: post #35

From Notch: > Don’t get me wrong, VR is not bad for social. In fact, I think social could become one of the biggest applications of VR. Being able to sit in a virtual living room and see your friend’s avatar? Business meetings? Virtual cinemas where you feel like you’re actually watching the movie with your friend who is seven time zones away? Do people really see this as the mainstream use of VR? Do people really se…

I can see myself, a few years in the future, using a VR headset daily. Watching movies, reading articles in a different format (just lying there rather than having to hold a book, Kindle or phone/tablet), watching something like TV with augmented social info, playing games, etc. Years beyond that, if the resolution is there, I think virtual displays will replace the way many of us currently do work.

I don't share your opinion, but have some colleagues who do. I love VR and own the dev kit. I love playing with it.

I like to watch movies and TV shows with friends and family, not alone.

I cannot see VR as advantageous for the work I do: design, programming, painting, writing. I enjoy working outside or in cafes, where there are people and noises and things to eat and drink. Places to walk.

Most of my programming happens when I step away from computers. When I'm at a computer all I am doing is transcribing code and design, not being creative.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#103

Post by joelrunyon »

smacktoward wrote: post #42
arasmussen wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who ever said those people aren't going to get the product? Why do you think the product will get swallowed up? > "Oculus will continue operating independently within Facebook" --Mark Zuckerberg

Yes, just as every CEO of every big company that has just acquired a smaller company has ever said, back unto the dawning of the world. Nothing is ever going to change, until suddenly it all does.

Disney picked up pixar and didn't screw it up (too) much.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#104

Post by jjoonathan »

hackinthebochs wrote: post #62
interpol_p wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you are suggesting that most people will strap on a headset to consume social information of the type they currently consume on Facebook? (Photos of real life events, the thoughts and feelings of others, commentary on recent news, memes.) Edit: just because social is a bigger area than gaming, does not mean VR is more likely to take off in that area. It entirely depends on how you actually use it and what experien…

>So you are suggesting that most people will strap on a headset to consume social information of the type they currently consume on Facebook Why do you think it would look anything like what we currently consider social networking? Why are people so painfully short-sighted? I have said many times that facebook won the social network wars long before google even released google+. Anything that comes along to kill face…

> Why do you think it would look anything like what we currently consider social networking? Why are people so painfully short-sighted?

Why do you think the fact that "next-gen" social networking will look different excuses three massive friction points of VR (buying the VR gear, buying a decent computer, and strapping on an ungainly headset)?

It's not short-sighted to see problems, it's short-sighted to ignore them. Unless you have a reason to think you can. Do you?

> I have said many times that facebook won the social network wars long before google even released google+.

I don't see how that's remotely relevant.

> Anything that comes along to kill facebook will look nothing like what we consider social networking today.

You're wandering in circles, still not addressing the friction problem. VR has huge friction points and dubious value-add outside gaming. Either argue that the friction isn't as bad as we think or argue that the value-add is larger.

"The sensation of 'being there' is so powerful that it will make 'virtual family gatherings' possible in a way that video conferencing and facebook haven't"

That's an argument (albeit not one I'm convinced by). See the difference?

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#105

Post by nl »

interpol_p wrote: post #49
lnanek2 wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Social seems like a more mainstream use, honestly. 73% of adults are on a social network. Only 49% of homes have a game console. Owning a game console is a choice. Owning something like a webcam and a way to browse Facebook is almost a default by now. While what happened is bad for the gaming focus, it is much more likely to end up with broad stream VR adoption just like how webcams are built into most phones and lap…

So you are suggesting that most people will strap on a headset to consume social information of the type they currently consume on Facebook? (Photos of real life events, the thoughts and feelings of others, commentary on recent news, memes.) Edit: just because social is a bigger area than gaming, does not mean VR is more likely to take off in that area. It entirely depends on how you actually use it and what experien…

"Social Networking" is really about shared social experiences.

Instagram became popular because photos are a richer way of saying some things than Twitter.

Your point about text messaging misses that this isn't an "either/or" thing.

I can imagine a VR app that lets you share your experience of standing in the Grand Canyon or jumping from a plane or being at a concert.

The hardware is a big problem though. I can see Google Glass growing quicker because of that.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#106

Post by rpdillon »

ekianjo wrote: post #91
weixiyen wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're going to read this in 10 years and look like the guy who predicted the iPhone to be a flop. Usable VR is absolutely world-changing.

Haha. Then I'll hope I'm wrong, but come up with clear reasons why this will be mainstream and mass market.

Simple: it provides a hyper-compelling experience that is completely unavailable through any other means, and does so for merely the price of a peripheral. Doubters will visit a friend's house and use it and be instantly sold. VR is a Big Deal.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#107

Post by nitrogen »

joelrunyon wrote: post #103
smacktoward wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, just as every CEO of every big company that has just acquired a smaller company has ever said, back unto the dawning of the world. Nothing is ever going to change, until suddenly it all does.

Disney picked up pixar and didn't screw it up (too) much.

I've wondered whether Pixar would have ventured into making more grown-up movies if they hadn't been bought by Disney (not that I don't enjoy their current stuff, even as an adult).

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#108

Post by rpdillon »

NextUserName wrote: post #54

> Virtual Reality is going to change the world Just like 3D televisions/displays did? I have heard this for over a decade and I am still not convinced.

3D TVs never made sense. VR is a wholly different analysis. I wrote a bunch about this back in 2012: http://killring.org/2012/08/14/the-vr-revolution-begins-now/ http://killring.org/2012/08/30/virtual-reality-creating-imme...

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#109

Post by nitrogen »

samstave wrote: post #85
ekianjo wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He is right - "social", especially in the way Facebook is doing it at the moment, is terrible for VR. Terrible for any technology that has such an incredible potential to change the world. It's not just that. VR is not going to be a product that appeals to masses. I don't think it will change the world. It could impact the world of gaming, potentially, and only CERTAIN areas of gaming only. There are several reason…

> I don't think it will change the world When you have a clear visor that you're looking through that will seamlessly super-impose exactly matched visuals to reality with enriched data... yes it wil change the world. Follow the calendar of the Mayans; everthing in cycles. Observe these cycles for great benefit! In this case, industry cycles around new tech will revolve. Certain circles will reach maturity, age and co…

When you have a clear visor that you're looking through that will seamlessly super-impose exactly matched visuals to reality with enriched data... yes it wil change the world.

We need hybrid LCD/OLED displays that give us an alpha channel.

Re: Virtual Reality is going to change the world

#110

Post by [deleted] »

smacktoward wrote: post #42
arasmussen wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who ever said those people aren't going to get the product? Why do you think the product will get swallowed up? > "Oculus will continue operating independently within Facebook" --Mark Zuckerberg

Yes, just as every CEO of every big company that has just acquired a smaller company has ever said, back unto the dawning of the world. Nothing is ever going to change, until suddenly it all does.

[deleted]
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