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Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

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Re: Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

#291
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? I don't see any sign yet that the flight 370 hijacking involved unusual danger, difficulty or expense for the culprits: so far, as best we can see, it looks like stealing candy from a baby. Obviously to get people off it alive you'd need manpower and infrastructure, but either a dusty old Soviet-era airbase in metaphorical or literal Kazakhstan, or a ship to pick people up after a ditching in calm water somew…

Hijacking airplanes after 9/11 is much more risky. Until 9/11, there was never a plot that involved intentionally hijacking an airliner with the intent of using it as a weapon and killing everyone on board. The assumption was "Oh, if we just give them what they want they'll let us all live." Post-9/11, if anyone tries to hijack an airplane they're going to have every able-bodied male between the ages of 18 and 40 com…

Also after 9/11 every plane would be just blown away from the interceptors.

Re: Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

#292

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or they were hijacking a plane to stuff it full of chemical weapons / radioactive material (think dirty bomb) with the intent of flying it over a major city and detonating it. It would be hard to do it in a western nation, but if you were aiming at a city near the "frontier" of India, Pakistan, etc. a bad actor could likely execute the plan before the jets they scramble could intercept the jet. There's a lot of bad s…

Except your plan has one fatal flaw: assuming the plane was stolen to be used as a missile. If this were ISI or a state level actor, the absolute riskiest part would be hijacking a plane in flight with passengers. You risk them uprising, getting the word out about the hijacking, and then you'd have to execute them once you land. Why not steal an empty plane at an airport or buy an older plane through an intermediary?

I don't think it was a state level actor. I think the most likely explanation in the event of a hijacking is rogue elements within the ISI (which is pretty common -- there are lots of factions within Pakistan, almost none of whose first loyalty is to the nation of Pakistan) providing cover and funding to a terrorist group. None of this would be unheard of; elements within the ISI protected bin Laden for years.

Stealing an empty plane from an airport would likely get you shot down before you made it 100 miles; air traffic is heavily controlled at passenger airports. If you want to break free of the air traffic system, you do it in the air over a sparsely populated and/or mountainous region. Older planes are expensive, especially large ones in working order with the range and cargo capabilities of a 777 (a working 777 would cost more than $200 million and be accompanied by a lot of paperwork.)

All of this is speculation anyway; we don't even know if it was hijacked or if it even landed if it was. It's just fun to play armchair intelligence analyst in the absence of good information.

Re: Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

#293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or they were hijacking a plane to stuff it full of chemical weapons / radioactive material (think dirty bomb) with the intent of flying it over a major city and detonating it. It would be hard to do it in a western nation, but if you were aiming at a city near the "frontier" of India, Pakistan, etc. a bad actor could likely execute the plan before the jets they scramble could intercept the jet. There's a lot of bad s…

Er, if the ISI wanted a 777, there are much closer places to steal one from and repaint. http://www.piac.com.pk/

Anything they'd steal from within Pakistan is likely owned by people with strong ties to the Pakistani government. The kind of people who would have the connections to find out who did it and hold them personally accountable. You don't shit where you eat.

Re: Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

#294
post #56

There is a realistic possibility that those piloting the plane used this and/or other stealth techniques and landed intact. There are lots of groups around the world that would love to have a working $250M aircraft. Maybe there is a massive airplane chop shop that this went to, or someone wants to load it up with explosives and fly it to some country they disagree with. Unfortunately, whether it landed or not, the od…

I think it's highly unrealistic. The plan simply involves too many risks. First of all how could the potential hijackers know that the Malaysian military wasn't properly monitoring the radar? There would have been a huge risk of the Malaysian military discovering it and scrambling jets. The collision avoidance system only works when the transponder is enabled. So flying in the radar shadow of another aircraft would t…

Personally, I find the whole military radar thing to be extremely suspicious. The fact that this plane flew over the whole country without being noticed even though it was tracked on military radar is just too implausible. Yet it happened.

Personally, I think perhaps somebody on duty was involved somehow. Perhaps bribed, perhaps threatened, maybe both, or just a co-conspirator.

It's a crazy idea and pretty unlikely. But to me it seems like the least unlikely scenario, for now.

I don't think it would take too much skill to merge your radar blip with another airliner. Just pull up behind it and slightly above it (to avoid the wake turbulence) and get close. Radar doesn't have superb spatial resolution, so you don't have to pull perfectly in line with the other plane. As long as you're fairly close to it (within a couple of plane-lengths, I would imagine) then the two planes will show up as a single radar contact. Sitting right behind another plane like that while it's cruising would not be too difficult.

Re: Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

#295
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't understand what the twenty Freescale employees have to do with anything and I keep seeing this fact mentioned in every discussion about MH370. How could they be important/valuable/dangerous enough to justify the hijacking or destruction of a commercial airliner containing hundreds of passengers? That sounds completely insane to me.

I also doubt that the employees had anything to do with it, but the most likely scenario I can think of that would involve the engineers is a country with sanctions imposed wanting to fabricate chips. On the other hand, any country capable of this probably could manage to get hold of as many chips as they wanted without kidnapping Freescale employees.

If you were a nation-state you could just create a start-up 'front' company, seeded with laundered money, and hire the best of those that apply.

And if you didn't have the money to actually continue funding a start-up, you could create the front, offer to fly all the employees to some destination-team-building exercise and kidnap them from there.

Re: Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

#296
post #174

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? I don't see any sign yet that the flight 370 hijacking involved unusual danger, difficulty or expense for the culprits: so far, as best we can see, it looks like stealing candy from a baby. Obviously to get people off it alive you'd need manpower and infrastructure, but either a dusty old Soviet-era airbase in metaphorical or literal Kazakhstan, or a ship to pick people up after a ditching in calm water somew…

Hijacking airplanes after 9/11 is much more risky. Until 9/11, there was never a plot that involved intentionally hijacking an airliner with the intent of using it as a weapon and killing everyone on board. The assumption was "Oh, if we just give them what they want they'll let us all live." Post-9/11, if anyone tries to hijack an airplane they're going to have every able-bodied male between the ages of 18 and 40 com…

Assuming the hijackers weren't already in the cockpit. It seems to me that the most likely people taking control of the plane in the situation stipulated were the people already in control of the plane when it left the ground.

Re: Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

#297
post #2

This is almost exactly how a plot device in Neal Stephenson's REAMDE plays out. In almost exactly the same part of the world. Bizarre.

Stephenson specialises in seeing the possible and articulating it.

The world of Snow Crash and Diamond Age is a very palpable future.

Re: Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

#298
post #244

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the level of sophistication required increasingly points to a much simpler explanation than terrorism.

why do people underestimate what terrorist groups are capable of? Some have training from various countries and quite a few have financial and material backing. If anything, the common theme on this site was to find every possible explanation other than terrorism. Sorry to be the party pooper, but there are people out there who operate without regard to our beliefs and at times love to exploit the stories we tell our…

Why do terrorists only get to be guys in caves? What was the difference between a pirate and a privateer in the 19th century? A government endorsement?

Re: Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

#299

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why do people underestimate what terrorist groups are capable of? Some have training from various countries and quite a few have financial and material backing. If anything, the common theme on this site was to find every possible explanation other than terrorism. Sorry to be the party pooper, but there are people out there who operate without regard to our beliefs and at times love to exploit the stories we tell our…

Yes, but I think what Herbig is saying is that the increased sophistication of assumptions means decreased likelihood that this was a deliberate hijacking. We get further away from Occam's razor in order to satisfy that. As of yet we haven't seen any group take responsibility, no claims of hostages or anything remotely indicative of this. So if it was taken by a terrorist group, where is the terrorism they plan to co…

When, on that sliding scale, does a hijacking become a theft?

Re: Did Malaysian Airlines 370 disappear using SIA68/SQ68 (another 777)?

#300
post #213

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a theory that the rapid ascent to 45,000 feet was done to deprive the passengers of oxygen and incapacitate them.

From what I've read that theory is bullocks because 45k is still in the safety margins the plane was designed for.

Wikipedia puts the service ceiling at 43,100 ft (13,140 m).

I imagine it could surpass that though without depressurization.

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