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Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

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161–170 of 217 posts

Re: Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

#161
post #158

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problems at Fukushima had to do with design and siting of the overall plant, which is, in fact, very much an element of engineering. Truth is, there are lots of ways for a nuke to fail, and the small comfort that Fukushima didn't fail in the same way Chernobyl did doesn't make Fukushima any less of a failure. The Japanese have also exhibited some spectacularly poor nuclear management in the past (a criticality in…

poor management -- it's a major risk factor This is true of any field in which, in the words of Feynman in his report on the Challenger disaster, "reality must take precedence over public relations, for nature cannot be fooled". the man who made that happen argued strongly against nuclear power. As the Rickover quote you give shows, Rickover thought of "radiation" as having magical powers, like many members of the un…

This is true of any field

There are some technologies which are inherently riskier than others. A solar meltdown or wind fuel spill isn't going to risk tens of thousands to hundreds of millions as a nuke plant incident could.

[Rickover's] arguments on such grounds are not cogent.

Y'know, blithely saying that of someone who spent 35 years in the nuclear industry, pretty much creating it, shows ... a certain hubris. I'm unpersuaded by your argument.

Your nuclear alternative universe omits the one glaring limitation of conventional nuclear: there's not enough fissible material to run nukes for more than a few decades, and much less than that if the fraction of energy produced from nuclear is increased. The alternatives are breeders (weapons, proliferation, and processing risks) or thorium MSR (MOX designs don't achieve the fuel utilization rates necessary to achieve a long-term sustainable energy source status). Thorium MSR suffers from the slight limitation that some 40 years after initial and very preliminary exploration, it's still at least 25 years from commercial deployment -- by the assessment of the usually optimistic Chinese: http://www.reddit.com/r/dredmorbius/comments/1uy239/energy_c...

I'll omit the other glaring omission: that oil provides fuel for transport, while nuclear doesn't. Synthesis of transportation fuels is a challenge of engineering, complexity, and scale.

Rickover actually addressed aspects of this in a 1956 speech:

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2006-12-02/energy-resource...

I'd recommend reading it in full (he articulates and builds his argument well), but:

For it is an unpleasant fact that according to our best estimates, total fossil fuel reserves recoverable at not over twice today's unit cost, are likely to run out at some time between the years 2000 and 2050, if present standards of living and population growth rates are taken into account. Oil and natural gas will disappear first, coal last. There will be coal left in the earth, of course. But it will be so difficult to mine that energy costs would rise to economically intolerable heights, so that it would then become necessary either to discover new energy sources or to lower standards of living drastically.

(Global Warming wasn't yet a thing in 1956).

Re: Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

#162

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was curious, so I looked at US fertility rates by state. Fortunately, wikipedia has a nice chart. The birth rates do appear to be higher in Western states than in the east. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territo...

It may be cultural, but it may just be economics. I'd like to see that list controlled for cost of living. States away from the East and West Coasts tend to be much more affordable, which makes having extra kids more feasible. http://www.missourieconomy.org/indicators/cost_of_living/ind... EDIT: Scroll about halfway down for a ranked list similar to the one on Wikipedia.

I was referring mostly to Mormons, though there's a large Catholic population from the Hispanic population in the southwest.

Re: Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

#163
post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What in rural Wyoming would ever justify spending half a million dollars for a single water well? I do not think an example like the massive urban conglomeration of Mexico City (greater area: 21.2 million people) naturally analogizes to such areas.

They redirect water from Northern to Southern California. Why not from rural Wyoming to, say, Colorado? We may have 5M people here, and are chronically short of water. The water from Colorado (via the Colorado River) also supplies Utah, Arizona, Southern California, Nevada, and Mexico with water. All of those areas need more water; even if Colorado stays at its current demand level, you could imagine one or more of t…

> Why not from rural Wyoming to, say, Colorado?

I think pretty much any other solution will work better than digging a well in rural Wyoming and building a pipeline somewhere. For example, getting water from all the other places around Colorado. Why is this one particular spot in Wyoming so important?

Re: Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

#164
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that average over the kilowatt-hours nuclear might be safer than coal. But the problem is that the risk is HIGHLY concentrated. I can self-insure my computers because if one ever fails I have the cash to handle it. It's not a financial crisis. I don't self insure my car (for collision/comprehensive) because it's too big of an expense for me to absorb at any one time without severe hardship. Nuclear reactors (…

LFTR reactors have physics on their side in that if containment is lost, so is criticality. But loss of criticality isn't sufficient for the reactor to be "safe". Even with the reactor no longer critical, there are still a lot of radioactive fission products left. The way to prevent them from escaping is secondary containment, which Chernobyl did not have, as I said (Fukushima, and indeed every other reactor ever bui…

A loss of criticality ensures that you don't end up with a positive feedback cycle that lets the problem spiral out of control faster than you can react, and possibly faster than you can comprehend.

A pressurized water reactor relies on the pressure vessel not being breached in order for the passive decay cooling to work, if that happens we're right back to Fukushima/Chernobyl style problems.

I am talking about short-term "everyone evacuate the building" types of disaster scenarios. You can do precisely that with a LFTR because of the passive decay heat cooling combined with the loss of criticality that happens when the freeze plug melts.

On a longer term the fission products might be a problem with an abandoned LFTR but because of the loss of criticality and the passive decay it's 100% acceptable to just wait for everything to cool down, fix the problem and restart. Or if things are so broken you can't fix them at least you don't have to keep putting people in harm's way to try and prevent a wider-scale disaster. Once things have cooled you go collect the nuclear material and send it to another plant to be used.

The best way for me to explain this is with analogies using potential energy.

1. The nuclear power plants we have now are a big heavy rock precariously balanced on top of a fairly narrow peak. Small movements to one side or the other can be recovered from but at some point that rock has started to move and will move aggressively. It will eventually reach the bottom of the hill but not before crushing everything in its path. We don't really even know how bad the damage can get.

2. A LFTR is like a big heavy rock perched about 10 feet up a shallow hill. It requires some energy to keep it there or else it'll roll down hill. You can't really push it up further so it's safe from disturbances in that direction. If you push it down hill (or cease holding it up) it only rolls 10 feet before it naturally hits the bottom and comes to a stop.

The majority of the things in the world act more like 2 than 1 and thus we aren't terribly scared of them. Yes there are a great many things you can do to ensure that 1 doesn't get away from you, but ultimately you're still fighting gravity.

Let me reiterate, I'm not against nuclear power. I just REALLY don't like the idea of the balancing act that has to be performed in 1 and far prefer the kind of intrinsic safety that you get from 2. I'm all for building plants like 2 even if they're not LFTR based. I don't have religion about the form, I just want as much safety as I can get.

Re: Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

#165
post #157

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that average over the kilowatt-hours nuclear might be safer than coal. But the problem is that the risk is HIGHLY concentrated. I can self-insure my computers because if one ever fails I have the cash to handle it. It's not a financial crisis. I don't self insure my car (for collision/comprehensive) because it's too big of an expense for me to absorb at any one time without severe hardship. Nuclear reactors (…

This is a positive feedback cycle rather than a negative one. It occurred to me on re-reading that you might have been referring here to the fact that the Chernobyl reactor had a number of features that acted to increase rather than decrease reactor power as actions were taken to try to shut it down. Those features are not present in any current reactor designs that weren't made by the Soviet Union. Certainly they we…

I was more referring to the idea that once you lose the ability to pump coolant, the reactor starts to heat up. Then as it heats up, it starts to melt itself. As it melts, it re-attains criticality and begins to generate more heat, which leads to more melting, which leads to more heat, ad nauseum.

We don't really even know when this stops or how it stops or whatever because the only time (so far) that it really started to get away from us (Chernobyl) a bunch of brave men gave their lives and dumped boron straight on the exposed reactor core to stop it. By doing so they spared us from gaining the very painful knowledge of how a meltdown ends naturally, at what point an equilibrium is reached.

EDIT: spelling

Re: Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

#166
post #113
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Three step process: 1) buy perrows book "normal accidents" 2) read the nuclear accident chapters 3) begin marching in the streets at the sign of any new old-style nuclear plants, or the continued operation of the existing ones. optional: 4) wonder in amazement how a chernobyl or fukushima isn't happening every year. That type of nuclear power generation really is that terrible. (note - I am actually pro-nuclear-power…

wonder in amazement how a chernobyl or fukushima isn't happening every year. Comparing Fukushima and Chernobyl is like comparing apples and turds. The debacle at Fukushima had nothing to do with the reactor design; it was due to the braindead siting of the backup diesel generators and their switchgear behind a seawall that got overrun by the tsunami. The reactor design itself was fine, and in fact has withstood loss…

The real difference between Chernobyl and Fukushima are the earthquake and tsunami which killed tens of thousands and leveled much more infrastructure. Fukushima makes for a very poor counterpoint to nuclear energy; the nuclear accident pales in comparison to the real disaster.

Re: Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

#167
post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Desalination for personal use is cheap . Cheaper than killing, even.

Cheaper than birth control?

That come for free with water contamination. http://m.livescience.com/20532-birth-control-water-pollution...

Re: Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

#168
post #6

Funny for this to come up now. I'm reading Cadillac Desert by Marc Reisner now which is all about water policy in the western US. The short answer is that we consume WAY more water than all of the precipitation on the entire region can support so we end up depleting the aquifers. Eventually (likely within my lifetime) those will dry up and they we will have to either start diverting water from Canada and Alaska, or d…

Pump seawater to Nevada and cover it in desalination greenhouses. http://www.seawatergreenhouse.com/

I spent years volunteering with Seawater Greenhouse and Charlie Paton, the inventor, including working in one of the pilot plants in Australia for a short while.

They are very interesting technology and if I wasn't working on the organization I am working on now I would probably be working with a large scale Seawater Greenhouse installation somewhere today.

Re: Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

#169
post #151

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LFTR reactors have physics on their side in that if containment is lost, so is criticality. But loss of criticality isn't sufficient for the reactor to be "safe". Even with the reactor no longer critical, there are still a lot of radioactive fission products left. The way to prevent them from escaping is secondary containment, which Chernobyl did not have, as I said (Fukushima, and indeed every other reactor ever bui…

A loss of criticality ensures that you don't end up with a positive feedback cycle that lets the problem spiral out of control faster than you can react, and possibly faster than you can comprehend. A pressurized water reactor relies on the pressure vessel not being breached in order for the passive decay cooling to work, if that happens we're right back to Fukushima/Chernobyl style problems. I am talking about short…

Yeah, absolutely. We need reactor designs that don't melt down when they fail and lose power. LFTR and perhaps pebble-bed reactors would be far safer than what we have now, and safer than coal in many ways.

Unfortunately, it's complicated to explain that to people. People don't really want anything to do with nuclear after all the issues of the past, and it's hard to blame them. Nuclear really needs a rebranding and safer designs.

Some common sense would help too. We should shut down nuclear power plants that are on earthquake faultlines.

Re: Message from Mexico: U.S. Is Polluting Water It May Someday Need to Drink

#170

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>comments like the one you replied to are exactly the kind we don't need. GP here. :) I'm 100% in favor of using technology "to offset much of what we've done, largely as a fault of technological advancement." After all, rainwater collection is technology! But desalination isn't that kind of technology — it's the destructive kind. My question was genuine. What advantage does plastic greenhouse desalination have over…

> But desalination isn't that kind of technology — it's the destructive kind. But is it really? You're effectively doing what occurs in nature. Clearing land and building a distribution infrastructure is destructive, but certainly no more than what is already going to happen regardless of whether or not desalinization is used. Pumping from salt water aquifers might qualify as well. > My question was genuine. It was,…

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