A protester in Kiev did an IAmA on Reddit: http://www.reddit.com/r/IAmA/comments/1w17qn/iama_protestor_... According to him, "Russia is trying to keep all the former Soviet Union satellite countries under control, and that is the root cause of the rioting."
it's a 100 eur bet.
i'd hate to win actually, but fuck, it's getting closer and closer. the eastern provinces are russian vs. the west, which is sort of european/polish. civil war is close.