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2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

annualletter.gatesfoundation.org

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Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#161

Post by humanrebar »

sp332 wrote: post #141
humanrebar wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm surprised he chose Mexico as an example as well, but because of the issues it has with corruption, emigration, and violence. Even a middle-class country with those problems seems like a bad example of progress.

Does Mexico still have an emmigration problem? I know that for the last few years, the USA has had net-negative immigration from Mexico, as people are moving back.

I'm not an expert, but I understand that was more a function of the economic downturn than anything.

Relevant: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/24/us/immigrant-population-sh...

That article reports that immigration from Mexico may be on the rise again. It also cites that half of the undocumented immigrants in the U.S. (about 6 million people) were born in Mexico.

I guess my point is that Mexico has significant issues to deal with and therefore it may not be a good anecdote and instead be a better candidate for the special-considerations bucket.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#162

Post by scarmig »

slurry wrote: post #155
mikeash wrote: post #7

This is a fascinating letter that helps combat some of the "doom and gloom" that's so prevalent in... well, everything. I kept coming back to one thought while reading this: why are people so mistaken about Africa in particular? The article covers misconceptions all over the place, but it keeps coming back to Africa, and it seems that the disparity between what people think and what's actually the case is far larger…

Two points: I still perceive India as a "shithole". Whereas China's elite has used its newfound wealth to finance widespread infrastructure and especially sanitation projects, India's has not, not on a mass countrywide scale. Fallen prey to coordination problems is the best gloss you can put on it but I still find it scandalous. Second, South America's recent progress has mostly been under governments of the left, us…

It's easy to overstate how leftist many of the governments there are. Outside of Venezuela (and Cuba), I wouldn't consider anything they have done surprisingly or inappropriately leftist. Photo-ops with Chavez or Castro are meant more for domestic PR than anything policy related.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#163

Post by chime »

crazygringo wrote: post #149

It's an excellent piece. I'll admit to being a bit confused by the assertion, however: > "letting children die now so they don’t starve later—doesn’t actually work, thank goodness. It may be counterintuitive, but the countries with the most deaths have among the fastest-growing populations in the world. This is because the women in these countries tend to have the most births, too." I spent five months in Kenya, and…

I think it is important to distinguish between the different method of aids and different causes of deaths here.

Let:

P1 = % of human population who live in tribes and will die in droughts

P2 = % of human population who are children, live in villages/urban areas, and will die without vaccinations/medicine

M1 = Multiplier for P1 (to replace the tribal people who died of hunger)

M2 = Multiplier for P2 (to replace the children who died due to lack of medication)

If we give food to P1 and medicine to P2, the population will be: 100%

If we don't do anything, Earth's population will be: 100% - P1 - P2 + M1xP1 + M2xP2

So basically if M1 or M2 are > 1, the population due to P1 or P2 will rise. M1 might be 0 if the entire tribe dies out. But it could be > 0 if another tribe now takes over the land. M2 is most likely > 1, even as much as 3-4 depending on the location as the letter pointed out.

This letter was primarily addressing P2 population. Sir David Attenborough has spoken out against foreign food aid for P1.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#164

Post by spikels »

agarwlGaurav wrote: post #64

Yesterday I read the Oxfam report that 85 people own half of the world's wealth. http://www.oxfam.org/en/pressroom/pressrelease/2014-01-20/ri... Now this is amazing and simple fact. This shows we have completely failed at distribution of wealth. If we could fix this many many problem will vanish. Now instead of what Gates has written this extreme inequality is blocking the progress of poor.

You misquote the OXFAM claim. They actually say:

The bottom half of the world’s population owns the same as the richest 85 people in the world.[1](p2 bottom)

See the difference? The richest 85 people have about $1.7 trillion in wealth[2]. To put that in perspective the world stock market capitalization is $63 trillion[3], world bond market capitalization is around $100 trillion[4], world investment grade real estate $26 trillion[5]. That already $189 trillion of world wealth and ignores most real estate, commodities, durables, government owned assets, etc. So the richest 85 people actually own much less than 1% of the world's wealth. The problem is that the bottom 50% also own much less than 1% of the world's wealth.

You will have a very hard time solving the world's problems if you can't even get basic facts straight. Gates, the world's second richest man, could give his entire fortune away to the bottom 50% and they would only get $19.00 each (=$67B/3.5B). Of course he would then have to shut down the Gates Foundation.

[1] http://www.oxfam.org/sites/www.oxfam.org/files/bp-working-fo...

[2] http://www.forbes.com/billionaires/list/

[3] http://www.businessinsider.com/wfe-world-stock-market-capita...

[4] http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1212h.pdf

[5] http://www.investmentmanagement.prudential.com/documents/pim...

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#165

Post by caublestone »

crazygringo wrote: post #149

It's an excellent piece. I'll admit to being a bit confused by the assertion, however: > "letting children die now so they don’t starve later—doesn’t actually work, thank goodness. It may be counterintuitive, but the countries with the most deaths have among the fastest-growing populations in the world. This is because the women in these countries tend to have the most births, too." I spent five months in Kenya, and…

"When children are well-nourished, fully vaccinated, and treated for common illnesses like diarrhea, malaria, and pneumonia, the future gets a lot more predictable. Parents start making decisions based on the reasonable expectation that their children will live."

The data seems to support the notion that healthier lives for children leads to a decrease in birth rate and family size. The size of the children population decreases as the overall quality of life for them improves because parents don't shotgun approach procreation. Also, from the piece, millions of women are unaware of contraceptives so as education increases so does the use of contraceptives.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#166

Post by XorNot »

crazygringo wrote: post #149

It's an excellent piece. I'll admit to being a bit confused by the assertion, however: > "letting children die now so they don’t starve later—doesn’t actually work, thank goodness. It may be counterintuitive, but the countries with the most deaths have among the fastest-growing populations in the world. This is because the women in these countries tend to have the most births, too." I spent five months in Kenya, and…

The point is that it's not like famines stop happening once a suitable number of people die. People keep reproducing, famines keep happening - the population bounces each time.

If you cut all food-aid, then you just set the boundary lower - and you know, condemn a bunch of people to a painful death. You don't solve the underlying problems - and it's worth nothing that this type of population bounce is very much the historical normal for human civilizations. Our ability to organize and plan is what alleviated it - and we were thorough since granary-like enterprises can be found in the ruins of every previous human civilization that has ever existed.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#167

Post by sdegutis »

MartinCron wrote: post #122
sdegutis wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't. Not because I don't have legit reasoning (I'm convinced I do). But for a far more interesting reason: I'm one of the 0% in this community who hold this position. This means there's no chance for a fair debate. Socially speaking, I think this is far more interesting than my disagreement itself. EDIT: Ignore this, I have already responded. See the rest of the thread.

You're right in that holding a position that is extremely divergent from the consensus view is an interesting place to be. I don't know if that necessarily follows that having a "fair" debate is impossible. There's nothing unfair about a majority of people disagreeing with you. Objective truth isn't determined by majority vote. It is unfair to say "you're the only one who thinks that, so you must be wrong" but I don'…

I'm thinking more of those who fall prey to the argumentum ad populum, and inspired with that confidence, they cite respectable-looking sources and consider them to be irrefutable proof. These people always win their arguments.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#168

Post by hamburglar »

chrisgd wrote: post #120
ori_b wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where did he say that there was no poverty? "Look at the progress we've made" is a far cry from "Ok folks, we're done here".

Perhaps I extrapolated too much, but the line "There are still slums and pockets of poverty, but by and large when I visit there now I think, Wow, most people who live here are middle-class. What a miracle." just because this particular area had less poverty, doesn't mean there are less people living in poverty, it just means they may be more hidden. Actual stats would have been helpful.

Actual stats would have been helpful where? For Gates to make the conclusion that significant progress has been made? Because I am pretty well convinced that Bill sits around chewing through "actual stats" as a hobby and doesn't just pull this stuff out of his ass. If you're saying that actual stats would have made this illustration a little more compelling, then I also disagree, since the difference between Mexico City appearing to be one giant slum and having to go looking for extreme poverty is pretty compelling in my book.

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#169

Post by sdegutis »

mikeash wrote: post #138
sdegutis wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"No, you're stating your opinion without appealing to religion, but you haven't argued for it at all." I'm stating my perspective and trying to back it up by my reasoning: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7097722 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7097478 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7097670 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7097627 But maybe all I'm doing is stating my opinion and that I just don't…

You're just telling us what you feel. You're not giving us any reasons why we might agree with you.

I thought I was. Which means there's a disconnect somewhere, either in your brain or mine. I won't venture to guess which, considering it could be in mine, rendering my reasoning invalid. (Assuming that makes sense.)

Re: 2014 Gates Annual Letter: Myths that block progress for the poor

#170

Post by humanrebar »

mikeash wrote: post #138
sdegutis wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"No, you're stating your opinion without appealing to religion, but you haven't argued for it at all." I'm stating my perspective and trying to back it up by my reasoning: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7097722 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7097478 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7097670 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=7097627 But maybe all I'm doing is stating my opinion and that I just don't…

You're just telling us what you feel. You're not giving us any reasons why we might agree with you.

His case, concisely stated is:

1. All births are good things. 2. Contraception causes fewer births. 3. Therefore contraception is not good.

...of course, correct me if I'm wrong.

It's a philosophical argument, not an empirical one, so it might be a little alien compared to the typical discussion thread on HN and similar venues.

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