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Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

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Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#81

Post by ijk »

Tloewald wrote: post #62
caprad wrote: post #61

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now, for example. The overoptimism may have been due to the rate of technological growth leading up to 1964. I think it is more likely a sad indication of how we have moved away from spending money on space exploration, and instead spending it elsewhere. We certainly could have moon bases if we had continued spending and researching into space.

We could have moonbases but what use would they be? In general any futurist has been ridiculously optimistic about energy generation/storage, robots, and transportation, and hopelessly pessimistic about (or even oblivious to) computers, communication, and anything biological (except perhaps for sanguine predictions about curing cancer, ageing, or the common cold). Arthur C. Clarke, whose predictions are linked from t…

In general, futurists tends to overestimate trends from technologies that are at the middle of an s-curve and underestimate technologies at the beginning of the s-curve. I expect future predictions to shift along the same trends, overestimating trends that are currently skyrocketing.

And of course, which technologies the futurist is personally familiar with can vary widely. Asimov, for example, had a blind spot for robots.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#82

Post by sigsergv »

Well, predictions are always inaccurate, there is also some kind of current-time-bias. For example, people in later 18 century believed that in the future all carriages will move without horses, literally: usual 18 c. carriages that moves by itself. And no one predicted automobile as we know it today (since 192* it hasn't changed conceptually).

So all these predictions are not came true at all, their authors dreamed of absolutely different things (except ideal concepts like “total boredom” for example).

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#84

Post by BrandonMarc »

Tloewald wrote: post #63
tcbawo wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I had a conversation with some friends earlier this week regarding the reduction of labor due to automation and artificial intelligence. What happens to our society when our Walmarts and McDonalds stop needing a significant human workforce? My friend, who is a teacher, suggested that his field might be exempt from the trend. But, I imagine the purpose and methods of education will be radically different in the next f…

The question is, if walmart and macdonalds sre run by robots, who will their customers be? At some point we'll need to decide whether we're happy to be a society comprising a few shareholders in Mom's Friemdly Robot Company living in an fortified compound and a vast multitude of impoverished rabble foraging in the surrounding landfill.

"Having to decide" assumes we'll be given a choice in the first place. Technological advances have a mind of their own, as it were, and simply deciding not to be affected by them is not a strategy.

Over a century ago, stop signs and traffic lights were optional for some locations / situations / vehicles, and traveling long distance without using roads was permissible. Now, whether you choose to use a car or not, you must obey traffic laws or else. You don't get a choice in the matter.

Kevin Kelly wrote pretty well about this, a few years back:

http://kk.org/thetechnium/archives/2009/02/the_unabomber_w.p...

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#85

Post by dredmorbius »

triangleman wrote: post #78
dredmorbius wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for most of the 90's the concern was underpopulation Among a rather select set of those interested in the subject. Yes, a great deal of fairly short-term (on a civilization/species perspective) issues arise when your birthrate suddenly falls, especially if it had previously been rising markedly. But concerns over the Earth's carrying capacity and how many humans can be supported, sustainably, and at what level of per…

John Doerr investing $200 million in green energy while simultaneously lobbying for California to cap carbon emissions? No conflict of interest there...

I don't mind conflicts of interest which happen to work for the greater good.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#86

Post by dredmorbius »

ximeng wrote: post #80
dredmorbius wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

for most of the 90's the concern was underpopulation Among a rather select set of those interested in the subject. Yes, a great deal of fairly short-term (on a civilization/species perspective) issues arise when your birthrate suddenly falls, especially if it had previously been rising markedly. But concerns over the Earth's carrying capacity and how many humans can be supported, sustainably, and at what level of per…

What was posted a few weeks back? I can't find anything.

"The shakeup of Kleiner Perkins exposes the short comings of venture capital" (gigaom.com)

Posted 18 days ago -- December 14.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6906635

http://gigaom.com/2013/12/13/the-shakeup-of-kleiner-perkins-...

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#87

Post by hatu »

beshrkayali wrote: post #8
JeffL wrote: post #6

A lot of it is really good, but the part about boredom is interesting: “[M]ankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014.” One thing we haven't had any trouble with in terms o…

One can argue that too much entertainment is no entertainment really. I feel that we are yet to witness the effects of boredom on humanity.

I agree, I think he was talking about way in the future when robots do all the work and unemployment stops being "unemployment".

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#88

Post by hatu »

taitems wrote: post #65
ahomescu1 wrote: post #39

I found this one funny: “Ordinary agriculture will keep up with great difficulty and there will be ‘farms’ turning to the more efficient micro-organisms. Processed yeast and algae products will be available in a variety of flavors.” Reminds me of Soylent Green (wasn't the original Soylent in the movie supposed to be processed algae?)

This formed a large part of Asimov's Robot series, with the first being "The Caves of Steel". To support a "huge" world population (roughly equal to our current size) food rations are cultivated in yeast farms outside the city domes.

His prediction about cities being underground too. I guess it makes sense he would write fiction about his favorite ideas.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#89

Post by hatu »

DonGateley wrote: post #75
ams6110 wrote: post #72

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A lot of things haven't changed at all. Televisions (apart from the screen itself), most kitchen and household appliances, all almost exactly as they were 50 years ago.

You must live in a museum. :-)

Maybe your oven has a touchscreen and apps on it but it basically still heats your food by converting electricity to heat.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#90

Post by DonGateley »

hatu wrote: post #89
DonGateley wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You must live in a museum. :-)

Maybe your oven has a touchscreen and apps on it but it basically still heats your food by converting electricity to heat.

And people do seem to love to contradict and argue.
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