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Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

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Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#61

Post by caprad »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

Note that this article is a lightweight edit of Asimov's original piece: http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/03/23/lifetimes/asi-v-fair.h... In particular, the article is edited to only show you reasonable predictions, rather than all his predictions. I thought his mistakes were just as interesting, because they give us a window into what life was like in 1964. Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now,…

> Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now, for example. The overoptimism may have been due to the rate of technological growth leading up to 1964.

I think it is more likely a sad indication of how we have moved away from spending money on space exploration, and instead spending it elsewhere. We certainly could have moon bases if we had continued spending and researching into space.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#62

Post by Tloewald »

caprad wrote: post #61
sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

Note that this article is a lightweight edit of Asimov's original piece: http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/03/23/lifetimes/asi-v-fair.h... In particular, the article is edited to only show you reasonable predictions, rather than all his predictions. I thought his mistakes were just as interesting, because they give us a window into what life was like in 1964. Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now,…

> Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now, for example. The overoptimism may have been due to the rate of technological growth leading up to 1964. I think it is more likely a sad indication of how we have moved away from spending money on space exploration, and instead spending it elsewhere. We certainly could have moon bases if we had continued spending and researching into space.

We could have moonbases but what use would they be? In general any futurist has been ridiculously optimistic about energy generation/storage, robots, and transportation, and hopelessly pessimistic about (or even oblivious to) computers, communication, and anything biological (except perhaps for sanguine predictions about curing cancer, ageing, or the common cold). Arthur C. Clarke, whose predictions are linked from the article, completely missed miniaturization. Asimov was one of the few who foresaw miniaturization but oddly, as a biologist, seemed completely oblivious to genetic engineering etc.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#63

Post by Tloewald »

tcbawo wrote: post #58
barrkel wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm of the opinion that SF is a poor place to look for predictions about the future, and that it is primarily about the present it's written in, a playground for changing the fundamental assumptions of that mundane present. But this one interests me: Mankind will therefore have become largely a race of machine tenders. I think, by and large, this is true in western society. We, here on this site, mostly tend to machi…

I had a conversation with some friends earlier this week regarding the reduction of labor due to automation and artificial intelligence. What happens to our society when our Walmarts and McDonalds stop needing a significant human workforce? My friend, who is a teacher, suggested that his field might be exempt from the trend. But, I imagine the purpose and methods of education will be radically different in the next f…

The question is, if walmart and macdonalds sre run by robots, who will their customers be? At some point we'll need to decide whether we're happy to be a society comprising a few shareholders in Mom's Friemdly Robot Company living in an fortified compound and a vast multitude of impoverished rabble foraging in the surrounding landfill.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#64

Post by genwin »

caprad wrote: post #61
sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

Note that this article is a lightweight edit of Asimov's original piece: http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/03/23/lifetimes/asi-v-fair.h... In particular, the article is edited to only show you reasonable predictions, rather than all his predictions. I thought his mistakes were just as interesting, because they give us a window into what life was like in 1964. Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now,…

> Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now, for example. The overoptimism may have been due to the rate of technological growth leading up to 1964. I think it is more likely a sad indication of how we have moved away from spending money on space exploration, and instead spending it elsewhere. We certainly could have moon bases if we had continued spending and researching into space.

I'd rather have more national parks than space exploration. But yeah, no pointless wars would be nice.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#65

Post by taitems »

ahomescu1 wrote: post #39

I found this one funny: “Ordinary agriculture will keep up with great difficulty and there will be ‘farms’ turning to the more efficient micro-organisms. Processed yeast and algae products will be available in a variety of flavors.” Reminds me of Soylent Green (wasn't the original Soylent in the movie supposed to be processed algae?)

This formed a large part of Asimov's Robot series, with the first being "The Caves of Steel". To support a "huge" world population (roughly equal to our current size) food rations are cultivated in yeast farms outside the city domes.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#66

Post by redthrowaway »

I'm always fascinated when reading articles like this that no one predicted general purpose or networked computers, or the implications thereof. It's always a gadget for this and a gadget for that, but never a gadget for everything that communicates instantaneously with every other gadget for everything on Earth. It speaks to the limits that the society around us places on our imagination -- these things were, quite literally, unthinkable.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#67

Post by notdang »

redthrowaway wrote: post #66

I'm always fascinated when reading articles like this that no one predicted general purpose or networked computers, or the implications thereof. It's always a gadget for this and a gadget for that, but never a gadget for everything that communicates instantaneously with every other gadget for everything on Earth. It speaks to the limits that the society around us places on our imagination -- these things were, quite…

In an interview Asimov said that the humanity had the opportunity to explore the space, but got advertisement managers and iphones instead.

Update. I am terrible sorry, it was in Ray Bradbury's interview.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#68

Post by nwzpaperman »

derleth wrote: post #54
thelettere wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Population growth has slowed fairly dramatically and for most of the 90's the concern was underpopulation, based on the finding that as economies develop fertility drops. It's called the fertility transition (1), and the current below replacement fertility in countries like Spain and a few others were seen as the future. For a while the US was thought to be exempt from this trend, but recent headlines suggest otherwi…

> for most of the 90's the concern was underpopulation Heh. When the birth rate is much above replacement, we worry about overpopulation. AND THAT'S TERRIBLE. When the birth rate is near or below replacement, we worry about underpopulation. AND THAT'S TERRIBLE. It wouldn't be nearly as funny if it weren't the same people worrying each time.

It would appear that fear sells and academics are more salesmen than would first appear, no?

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#69

Post by Houshalter »

derleth wrote: post #54
thelettere wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Population growth has slowed fairly dramatically and for most of the 90's the concern was underpopulation, based on the finding that as economies develop fertility drops. It's called the fertility transition (1), and the current below replacement fertility in countries like Spain and a few others were seen as the future. For a while the US was thought to be exempt from this trend, but recent headlines suggest otherwi…

> for most of the 90's the concern was underpopulation Heh. When the birth rate is much above replacement, we worry about overpopulation. AND THAT'S TERRIBLE. When the birth rate is near or below replacement, we worry about underpopulation. AND THAT'S TERRIBLE. It wouldn't be nearly as funny if it weren't the same people worrying each time.

Both are worrying. Overpopulation obviously has problems with dividing up natural resources among more and more people and/or trying to find jobs for them all.

But too low birth rates mean there won't be enough kids to replace the current workers, and we will have fewer people supporting a larger population of retired people (though this might be possible with technology and of course, immigration.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#70

Post by Houshalter »

JonnieCache wrote: post #12
JeffL wrote: post #6

A lot of it is really good, but the part about boredom is interesting: “[M]ankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014.” One thing we haven't had any trouble with in terms o…

The entertainment "possibilities" are a symptom of the boredom.

I wouldn't say it's increased boredom. People still work about the same amount. It's just technology now makes video games and the like possible where they weren't before.
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