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Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

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Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#11

Post by hrkristian »

That is probably the best prediction I've seen anyone do.

He greatly overestimated our capability to store/generate power, the reason is apparent in his Foundation series as what he got wrong (cordless appliances and hovering transportation) basically comes down to this; we don't have miniature nuclear fusion devices. Well, actually we do, they just aren't commercially viable to the extent you'll see them in a blender, yet.

I don't know if our most beloved word is "Work!", "Growth!" seems more applicable to the western world, the two are tied pretty close together, though.

Very interestingly our foray into holographic projection so far is in fact just as he describes them: fully transparent cubes where an image is rendered.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#12

Post by JonnieCache »

JeffL wrote: post #6

A lot of it is really good, but the part about boredom is interesting: “[M]ankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014.” One thing we haven't had any trouble with in terms o…

The entertainment "possibilities" are a symptom of the boredom.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#13

Post by JonnieCache »

adamnemecek wrote: post #2

Some of these are actually pretty prescient. Particularly this one "Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence." Rest is pretty hilarious. E.g. "Any number of simultaneous conversations between earth and moon can be handled by modulated laser beams, which are easy to manipulate in space. On earth, however, laser beams will have to be led through plastic pipes, to avoid material…

I'm pretty sure that is exactly what does go on, dude. Apart from the living on the moon bit, obviously.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#14

Post by adamnemecek »

JonnieCache wrote: post #13
adamnemecek wrote: post #2

Some of these are actually pretty prescient. Particularly this one "Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence." Rest is pretty hilarious. E.g. "Any number of simultaneous conversations between earth and moon can be handled by modulated laser beams, which are easy to manipulate in space. On earth, however, laser beams will have to be led through plastic pipes, to avoid material…

I'm pretty sure that is exactly what does go on, dude. Apart from the living on the moon bit, obviously.

I was specifically talking about the communication with moon. I find it funny how back in the day, futurologists were obsessed with it.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#15

Post by binarymax »

edward wrote: post #4

I like this one: “The appliances of 2014 will have no electric cords, of course, for they will be powered by long- lived batteries running on radioisotopes.”

I found that one particularly interesting, as That was a core theme of his "Foundation" novels. Those who were able to gadgetize nuclear energy were at a distinct advantage over others.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#16

Post by The_Double »

adamnemecek wrote: post #2

Some of these are actually pretty prescient. Particularly this one "Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence." Rest is pretty hilarious. E.g. "Any number of simultaneous conversations between earth and moon can be handled by modulated laser beams, which are easy to manipulate in space. On earth, however, laser beams will have to be led through plastic pipes, to avoid material…

10/22/2013 NASA Laser Communication System Sets Record with Data Transmissions to and from Moon

http://www.nasa.gov/press/2013/october/nasa-laser-communicat...

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#17

Post by JonnieCache »

adamnemecek wrote: post #14
JonnieCache wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm pretty sure that is exactly what does go on, dude. Apart from the living on the moon bit, obviously.

I was specifically talking about the communication with moon. I find it funny how back in the day, futurologists were obsessed with it.

Indeed. While there was the famous http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lunar_Laser_Ranging_experiment apparently most space communication happens via the usual parabolic/phased array antennae: http://www.ri.cmu.edu/pub_files/pub1/bapna_deepak_1996_1/bap...

KISS is doubly important in space I suppose.

EDIT: reading that wiki article it seems the first lunar laser experiments happened in 1962, so we may have found Asimov's inspiration.

EDIT2: nope, apparently he was spot on after all ;)

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#18

Post by thelettere »

sillysaurus2 wrote: post #7

Note that this article is a lightweight edit of Asimov's original piece: http://www.nytimes.com/books/97/03/23/lifetimes/asi-v-fair.h... In particular, the article is edited to only show you reasonable predictions, rather than all his predictions. I thought his mistakes were just as interesting, because they give us a window into what life was like in 1964. Asimov predicted that moon colonies would be common by now,…

Population growth has slowed fairly dramatically and for most of the 90's the concern was underpopulation, based on the finding that as economies develop fertility drops.

It's called the fertility transition (1), and the current below replacement fertility in countries like Spain and a few others were seen as the future. For a while the US was thought to be exempt from this trend, but recent headlines suggest otherwise (2).

(1) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition

(2) http://money.cnn.com/2013/09/06/news/economy/birth-rate-low/

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#19

Post by salient »

adamnemecek wrote: post #2

Some of these are actually pretty prescient. Particularly this one "Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence." Rest is pretty hilarious. E.g. "Any number of simultaneous conversations between earth and moon can be handled by modulated laser beams, which are easy to manipulate in space. On earth, however, laser beams will have to be led through plastic pipes, to avoid material…

We have laser connection to the moon now, actually. And he was right about fiber optic cables, too.

Re: Isaac Asimov Predicts in 1964 What the World Will Look Like in 2014

#20

Post by deletes »

All the high-school students will be taught the fundamentals of computer technology will become proficient in binary arithmetic and will be trained to perfection in the use of the computer languages that will have developed out of those like the contemporary “Fortran.

I wish that was the case.

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