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Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

nytimes.com

61–70 of 116 posts

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#61
post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the price of Bitcoin has taken a noticeable dive. Don't judge on one day. Wait for a week, 10 days before making conclusions on the price of Bitcoin. Bitcoin has shown to be pretty resilient to news that were considered bad by the media. We'll see.

> Wait for a week, 10 days before making conclusions on the price of Bitcoin My conclusion is that it's pretty fucked up [1]. Nov 15 $US430 Nov 22 US$843 Nov 29 US$1137 Dec 6 US$552 Dec 13 US$869 Dec 18 US$584 Pick one of those dates before today and imagine saying "wait for a week ... before making conclusions on the price of Bitcoin". [1] https://coinbase.com/charts

Wait for a year. Two years. Three years.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#62

In April, I watched the price of bitcoin every day. When it approached $200 I said "f*ck it," took out a student loan and bought in at $225. The VERY NEXT DAY the price collapsed. I watched bitcoin slide to $50 in a state of complete and utter devastation. I felt so stupid. I decided not to sell, and just considered the loan to be a write-off. Point being, you should assess the quality of your investment in years, no…

There's a few things weird about this story. Are you really proud you have a leveraged position in bitcoin? Isn't that among the riskiest positions you can take on a very volatile, illiquid, and possibly illegal asset? That's totally a personal choice, but it's certainly not one I would or a typical retail investor should ever take. Your decision to buy-and-hold during a sell off in the Spring is at best an anecdote…

Please spare us the lecture on what an investor should and should not do. What someone does with their money is their choice and the consequences of what happens with that money is their consequence.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#63
post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

going all in is probably not adviseable in any technology investment, but I get his point, the Chinese Government see bitcoin as a way that its citizens can circumvent currency controls and it also affects the exchange rate of the RMB, which is very closely controlled byt he Chinese Government. This doesnt mean that bitcoin is "going to the moon" this means that as a disruptive technology it is making itself known an…

That sentiment is also often a way to cover for the incoherent belief "P(A|B) > P(A|-B) > P(A|B)".

I think that depends on your entry point. Perhaps if you got in at $1000 you may be trying to convince yourself, or others, that holding long term makes sense. However if you got in at <$3 and have been holding bitcoin for a period of over 18 months then actually it is not an incoherent belief that it will be worth over $1000 again, it is a projected outcome based on the historic performance of the technology as a currency.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#64

Predictable outcome is predictable: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6818821 Anyone who thought the Chinese government were going to ignore a mechanism that allowed people to bypass capital controls with impunity was pretty naive. Bitcoin fanboys have classic tunnel vision - they're so enamoured of the libertarian ideal of an anonymous crypto-currency that's not controlled by any government, that they ignored all…

I think the comparison to moon bases is a little dramatic. The infrastructure exists already for Bitcoin, and there is a thriving Bitcoin ecosystem. Whether or not it continues to grow is the question.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#65
post #39

Wow, this has really got the attention of the Chinese authorities. This only alludes to how incredibly disruptive bitcoin is going to be. Time to go all-in if you haven't already...

> Time to go all-in if you haven't already... If every possible outcome confirms your hypothesis, you are not considering the evidence properly. If China hadn't moved against Bitcoin, would you think that would make Bitcoin a less attractive speculation?

> If China hadn't moved against Bitcoin, would you think that would make Bitcoin a less attractive speculation?

Yes. Didn't I just say that?

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#66

Predictable outcome is predictable: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6818821 Anyone who thought the Chinese government were going to ignore a mechanism that allowed people to bypass capital controls with impunity was pretty naive. Bitcoin fanboys have classic tunnel vision - they're so enamoured of the libertarian ideal of an anonymous crypto-currency that's not controlled by any government, that they ignored all…

I think the comparison to moon bases is a little dramatic. The infrastructure exists already for Bitcoin, and there is a thriving Bitcoin ecosystem. Whether or not it continues to grow is the question.

He's just salty that he didn't mine any. Bitcoins are almost as cool as Elon Musk, but the Muskoin will go where no cryptocurrency has gone before...Mars! Hold your breath y'all.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#67

Predictable outcome is predictable: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6818821 Anyone who thought the Chinese government were going to ignore a mechanism that allowed people to bypass capital controls with impunity was pretty naive. Bitcoin fanboys have classic tunnel vision - they're so enamoured of the libertarian ideal of an anonymous crypto-currency that's not controlled by any government, that they ignored all…

Indeed it's predictable that if the biggest buyer stops buying the prices will drop. You don't have to be a genius to figure that out.

The adoption of p2p technology, a protocol or a network has less to do with the quality of the technology itself, and more with the size of the network. Couldn't there be a better social network than FB? A better snapchat? A better Twitter? A better protocol than http?

Besides, too flawed from an economic perspective? Too inefficient? This is the rhetorical equivalent of "Spray and Pray"..

The current regulatory environment will not just disappear but itself. Bitcoin might win, bitcoin might lose, but there will be blood.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#68

In April, I watched the price of bitcoin every day. When it approached $200 I said "f*ck it," took out a student loan and bought in at $225. The VERY NEXT DAY the price collapsed. I watched bitcoin slide to $50 in a state of complete and utter devastation. I felt so stupid. I decided not to sell, and just considered the loan to be a write-off. Point being, you should assess the quality of your investment in years, no…

Should a currency be an investment?

One of the greatest investors of all-time, George Soros, made billions betting against the British Pound. A pretty old currency.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/2773265/Billionaire-who-b...

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#69

Predictable outcome is predictable: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6818821 Anyone who thought the Chinese government were going to ignore a mechanism that allowed people to bypass capital controls with impunity was pretty naive. Bitcoin fanboys have classic tunnel vision - they're so enamoured of the libertarian ideal of an anonymous crypto-currency that's not controlled by any government, that they ignored all…

Bitcoin fanboys have classic tunnel vision - they're so enamoured of the libertarian ideal of an anonymous crypto-currency that's not controlled by any government, that they ignored all the practical, economic and legal challenges it would need to overcome before it could become a real currency.

I am always amazed by the condescending tone of know it all speculators who think they've got it all figured it out. Labeling bitcoin enthusiasts as fanboys is a trite rhetorical tactic to marginalize their opinions, but what's really hilarious is that your tense (they ignored all challenges, an obvious falsehood btw) seems to imply that you've somehow definitively demonstrated that bitcoin is destined for failure. Guess what? Bitcoin was chugging along just fine before the Chinese hit the scene, in fact, black market merchants had no problem accepting bitcoin as their primary source of payment long before the financial world had even heard of bitcoin. I applaud your risky predictions though (bitcoin will fail, the price will drop if a government clamps down on bitcoin, bitcoin technology will be used in future financial systems), truly marked insight, you should recommend a reading list.

Anyway, I expect you to headline the inevitable "Bitcoin Once Again Breaks 1k" thread with a post linking to your comment here, explaining why you were full of shit... Though, I won't hold my breath since intelligent individuals like yourself will always find a reason to consider bitcoin a failure until its adopted as legal tender (something that the "fanboys" realize is completely unnecessary for the success of bitcoin).

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a few things weird about this story. Are you really proud you have a leveraged position in bitcoin? Isn't that among the riskiest positions you can take on a very volatile, illiquid, and possibly illegal asset? That's totally a personal choice, but it's certainly not one I would or a typical retail investor should ever take. Your decision to buy-and-hold during a sell off in the Spring is at best an anecdote…

Thank you captain obvious. I had ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA that using student loans for unauthorized investments is a violation of the contract. Gee willakers! I better go turn myself in!

Your reply makes me think: You should buy more. Invest as much as you can!
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