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Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

nytimes.com

41–50 of 116 posts

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#41
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

speculation != investment

I keep hearing this but I never see any angle to this statement where it could possibly be true.

An investment is productive - buying a share in a company allows that company to increase production, which should increase their profit.

Lending money to a company allows that company to invest, and increase their profits.

Buying BTC is nothing like that. It's speculation - hoping that the price will go up, nothing more.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#42
post #39

Wow, this has really got the attention of the Chinese authorities. This only alludes to how incredibly disruptive bitcoin is going to be. Time to go all-in if you haven't already...

> Time to go all-in if you haven't already... If every possible outcome confirms your hypothesis, you are not considering the evidence properly. If China hadn't moved against Bitcoin, would you think that would make Bitcoin a less attractive speculation?

going all in is probably not adviseable in any technology investment, but I get his point, the Chinese Government see bitcoin as a way that its citizens can circumvent currency controls and it also affects the exchange rate of the RMB, which is very closely controlled byt he Chinese Government. This doesnt mean that bitcoin is "going to the moon" this means that as a disruptive technology it is making itself known and coming up against predictable barriers.

The comment you responded to was a bit "buy buy buy" but the sentiment is just another way of saying "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win"

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#43

I came here for some opinions on where the dive ends. Will we see the BT under 200$?

Comparison to previous bubbles (with standard disclaimer about past performance not being an indicator of future results): http://m.imgur.com/i5w3yPj

$200 is certainly possible, if not likely.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#44
post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Time to go all-in if you haven't already... If every possible outcome confirms your hypothesis, you are not considering the evidence properly. If China hadn't moved against Bitcoin, would you think that would make Bitcoin a less attractive speculation?

going all in is probably not adviseable in any technology investment, but I get his point, the Chinese Government see bitcoin as a way that its citizens can circumvent currency controls and it also affects the exchange rate of the RMB, which is very closely controlled byt he Chinese Government. This doesnt mean that bitcoin is "going to the moon" this means that as a disruptive technology it is making itself known an…

That sentiment is also often a way to cover for the incoherent belief "P(A|B) > P(A|-B) > P(A|B)".

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#45

In April, I watched the price of bitcoin every day. When it approached $200 I said "f*ck it," took out a student loan and bought in at $225. The VERY NEXT DAY the price collapsed. I watched bitcoin slide to $50 in a state of complete and utter devastation. I felt so stupid. I decided not to sell, and just considered the loan to be a write-off. Point being, you should assess the quality of your investment in years, no…

There's a few things weird about this story. Are you really proud you have a leveraged position in bitcoin? Isn't that among the riskiest positions you can take on a very volatile, illiquid, and possibly illegal asset? That's totally a personal choice, but it's certainly not one I would or a typical retail investor should ever take. Your decision to buy-and-hold during a sell off in the Spring is at best an anecdote…

i love how you are telling him it was a dumb idea, when you have no idea if he sold enough at $1100 to cover his student loan, or that right now he is still in a position where he has doubled his money in a matter of months regardless of this crash.

Too many people offering investment advice in hindsight round here.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wrong question, I think. This thing is barely a currency. It has built-in deflation, which makes it a great long-term store of value (assuming it isn't killed somehow) in a world of depreciating alternative stores of value, but a bad currency. If you want a currency for day-to-day use, USD is what you want. If you want to hedge against USD depreciation, BTC is one option.

> It has built-in deflation, which makes it a great long-term store of value It also has a very large risk premium, which makes it inferior to other options for solely a long-term store of value. > If you want to hedge against USD depreciation, BTC is one option. Bitcoin is an imperfect hedge against U.S. dollar depreciation. There are valid reasons for investing in Bitcoin, but this should not be one of them.

>It has built-in deflation, which makes it a great long-term store of value

Besides, so far, Bitcoin has been highly inflationary. In a bit more than a year, the number of bitcoins in circulation has doubled.

https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=all&s...

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a few things weird about this story. Are you really proud you have a leveraged position in bitcoin? Isn't that among the riskiest positions you can take on a very volatile, illiquid, and possibly illegal asset? That's totally a personal choice, but it's certainly not one I would or a typical retail investor should ever take. Your decision to buy-and-hold during a sell off in the Spring is at best an anecdote…

i love how you are telling him it was a dumb idea, when you have no idea if he sold enough at $1100 to cover his student loan, or that right now he is still in a position where he has doubled his money in a matter of months regardless of this crash. Too many people offering investment advice in hindsight round here.

Err isn't ivanplenty doing the opposite of offering hindsight investment advice? He's saying it was stupid despite it ending up being a profitable investment.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#48

Wow, this has really got the attention of the Chinese authorities. This only alludes to how incredibly disruptive bitcoin is going to be. Time to go all-in if you haven't already...

Not sure if you are being ironic. Regardless of the merits or lack thereof, it would be nice to be able to have an intelligent discussion online about Bitcoins, without being clusterbombed by the army of shills and speculators.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#49
Unregulated capital flight is really not a feature of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin is money with the ledger built into it. It's not for hiding wealth, but for tracking it. This is a market correction that had to take place.

People get confused right now because the ledger is more or less blank. It won't be. (As a slightly dystopian side note, BTC with very little history may become very very valuable.)

In the future, it is going to be preferable to pay for anything large with cryptocurrency. It's overkill to buy a coffee with Bitcoin. But a house, a car, maybe even rent? What better way to prove you own or have paid for something? The currency knows when and how it was used.

We currently live in a world where banks try to foreclose on homes that aren't even mortgaged. Bitcoin and the like will end that. But even more importantly, Bitcoin is about wealth protection. The average Joe will have very little of the deflationary income. But large banking institutions will.

Re: Bitcoin Value Sinks After Chinese Exchange Move

#50

Wow, this has really got the attention of the Chinese authorities. This only alludes to how incredibly disruptive bitcoin is going to be. Time to go all-in if you haven't already...

> Time to go all-in if you haven't already...

I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men Sir Isaac Newton

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