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India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

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Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#41
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how access to medicine makes any difference Look over the history of the Industrial Revolution -- roughly 1750 - 1950. At the start of that we had no real working engines, transportation systems, concept of energy or thermodynamics, understanding of evolution or germ theory, and a whole host of other concepts, as well as practical technologies: steam engines, metalurgy, steel, chemicals, electricity, comm…

> I don't see how access to medicine makes any difference That's not quite what I said. > but the first two alone provided the lion's share of life-expectancy gains in England and the US. Longer lives => contributing to pollution for a longer period... Are you making the point that modern medicine has contributed to global warming? > The other thing we're very well aware of now is that 1) continuing to extract fossil…

That's not quite what I said.

It's a direct (though partial) anchoring quote to identify what portion of your comments I was addressing. You said it. Exactly.

Longer lives => contributing to pollution for a longer period

That's one effect.

Another is that life becomes far more predictable. Risk and uncertainty are both factors which tend to work against the development of a rich and advanced culture. If a family can be reasonably assured that the children it births will live to maturity, the costs of food, housing, education, etc., are more likely to reach fruition and payoff. That's a large part of the dynamic that's though to lead to the demographic transition (see Hans Rosling and others). I've got my own concerns about DT, and theories about the reduced birthrates of highly concentrated cultures (Western Europe, non-hispanic US, Japan, Hong Kong, and elsewhere), but as a first order approximation it seems to hold. Once you've stabilized the population you can look at both reducing it (critical to long-term survival) and enriching it.

Are you making the point that modern medicine has contributed to global warming?*

There's very little in the history of the past 250 years that hasn't contributed in some way. It's complicated. My overarching point, however, is that we now know far more about what our limits are and can address them.

So I think you're responding to something I said.

Fossil fuels are the primary driver toward anthropgenic global warming, which is in fact the matter at the heart of this HN article. They've also been the driver of most economic (and population) growth of the past 250 years, by making a vast, clean[1], reliable[2], readily utilized, and highly fungible form of energy available. So yes, it's complicated. And it's a question I'm looking into at more length. And it's specifically fossil fuel use curtailment which India is fighting in international accord proceedings.

Indus Valley Civilization

An instance of the collapse of an advanced culture which happens to be proximate to your presumed location (I take it you're in India or have spent considerable time there). There are others. I strongly recommend Joseph Tainter's The Collapse of Complex Societies (his work is referenced strongly in Jared Diamond's Collapse).

Greer

He's not an orthodox thinker. I won't speak to all of his beliefs, but I've found his blog to be useful reading (and recommend you look at it) and the concept of catabolic collapse specifically useful. As I indicated, it's got credence in Marc Andreesen's "software eats everything" concept, in financialization, see books of the past decade or two on Wall Street / financial market shenanigans from Mark Lewis, and others (The Big Short, Hollowing Out America, etc.).

Orthodox economics certainly has its own set of fantastical beliefs (and gross distortions). Something I've more than a passing relationship with (I majored in the subject).

______________________

Notes:

1. As compared with animal power for transportation. "Mud", a/k/a dung, was a huge pollution and public health problem prior to motorized transport. The polluting effects which are experienced from fossil fuels occur at levels of utilization which simply had not been attained by its precursor fuels and energy sources. That said, yes, in sufficient quantity it can be quite bad (acute effects) and the chronic effects of CO2 release are now understand to be of vast significance.

2. Not subject to seasonal or other variability as with growing fuelwood, grains, water, wind, or direct solar energy. Until the point at which stocks of fossil fuels are practically exhausted.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#42
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how access to medicine makes any difference Look over the history of the Industrial Revolution -- roughly 1750 - 1950. At the start of that we had no real working engines, transportation systems, concept of energy or thermodynamics, understanding of evolution or germ theory, and a whole host of other concepts, as well as practical technologies: steam engines, metalurgy, steel, chemicals, electricity, comm…

I was driven to sign up and comment by your snide remark about cholera being "imported from India, as it happens". But you do make some important points too, though spoiled somewhat by the introduction of John Michael Greer, whose involvement with what I call 'non-evidence-based healing techniques' does not make him much credible. About your important points: yes, the industrial revolution (roughly 1750-1950 as you s…

your snide remark about cholera being "imported from India, as it happens"

Not snide. A statement of historical fact, noted for irony given the nationality of the person I was responding to. I was relying principally on James Burke's statement in episode 7 of The Day the Universe Changed, "What the Doctor Ordered": http://fixyt.com/watch?v=wM2UZ26b1EQ (19 minutes)

It's readily corroborated:

http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/intro/bio_cholera.htm

Cholera is a disease caused by the bacteria Vibrio cholera. The disease first emerged in the 1800s from Calcutta, India where it had caused disease for centuries. Since then, 7 cholera pandemics have swept through the world.

I'll note that even recent epidemics are traced to south Asia. The cholera epidemic in India was imported from Bengali UN relief workers:

Cholera strains isolated in Haiti were genetically most similar to strains detected in Bangladesh in 2002 and 2008; thus, cholera was most likely introduced into Haiti from southern Asia (2). Despite the genetic similarity in the strains, no attempt was made by the researchers to ascertain and rule out the source of the outbreak in Bangladeshi policemen stationed at Mirebalais between September and October 2010. Another, although less likely, source for the introduction of cholera into Haiti could have been travelers or relief workers who may have recently been to southern Asia.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3310591/

I'm not blaming India for the epidemic, and I'm well aware that England was engaging in uninvited management activities in the region at the time. Though it's interesting to note that one of the first effects of globalization was importation of a mass epidemic -- we're dealing with similar issues today (various influenzas, SARS, AIDs), and there were earlier and other cases (syphilis imported from the New World, smallpox exported to it).

On Greer: he's very unorthodox. I'd suggest weighing his concepts on their own merits, and as I've noted in another response, the idea of catabolic collapse is really him putting an identifier and mechanism on a trend and mechanism others have noted.

it was not as if these changes were driven solely by a spirit of inquiry or general altruism

I am making absolutely no assertion that this is the case generally. The question of why industrialization emerged where and when it did is a fascinating one. I've been revisiting Burke's Connections and viewed The Day the Universe Changed both of which spend a great deal of time covering this period. I'm well aware of the social inequities which accompanied the transition.

In the large view, though, that's incidental to the larger problem: we (humans) have to figure out how the hell we're going to get past a confluence of multiple impinging crises: dwindling fossil fuels, climate change, other resource limits (water, topsoil, phosphorus, copper, "peak everything"), and underlying all of it, a fundamental problem of population, per-capita resource consumption, and equity in allocation both within and between nations. I'm very strongly pessimistic for the future, spanning a period probably roughly paralleling the duration of the Industrial Revolution -- the next 250 years. Though depending on what decline scenarios you subscribe to the fall could be more or less gradual.

One very real possibility is that the developed world make concessions to the undeveloped / developing world in terms of carbon emissions. Another is that the parties fight it out. Pursuing growth for its own sake will, simply put, backfire in the worst possible way. It's one of the larger prisoner's dilemma games ever constructed.

On Greer, what specific references do you have to his "non-evidence-based healing techniques"? I haven't run across those myself yet (he's a recent discovery of this past year).

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#43
post #34
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India was also colonized. You aren't being unbiased when you point out medicine and technology, but not colonialism.

So was Ireland, were not doing too bad now, thank you

And for anyone who discounts the affects of English dominion over Ireland, look up the history of the Irish Potato Famine, during which England continued exports of grain and beef from Ireland to England. This was while one million people died of starvation, and a million more emigrated (most to the US and Canada), a fifth to a quarter of the island's population. A classic case of distribution inequity. The implications in terms of home rule and ongoing political strife between Ireland and England persist to the present time.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Famine_(Ireland)

Similar circumstances accompanied the Holodomor -- the Ukranian famine (then part of the USSR) from 1932-1933 in which 2.4-7.5 million people died, again while food was being exported to support the Russian SSR.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ukrainian_famine

The point: history is rife with inequities. Addressing the problems we face now is going to have to involve setting those aside. I've speculated that it might be literacy (allowing records of the inequities to be preserved) which has a certain relationship with perpetrating the memory of such injustices (though it's also been pointed out that ignorant societies can be mobilized by demagogues).

In the instant case, I think it's fair for India to call for concessions by industrialized nations, but it's ultimately self-defeating to pursue a "growth" policy which will be anything but.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#44
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Bullshit, dude. You are being a coward. Does Rome or France conquering England have an effect on the way we should manage global emissions policy or not? Because if it doesn't, why are you mentioning it? Do the different circumstances that India has during industrialization mean they should take a greater role in limiting their emissions or not? Because you mentioned just two items, medicine and technology, which are…

I'm pretty confident you could have expressed what you think is wrong with the parent, without being insulting. "Be civil." http://ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Absolutely not.

"Civility" when discussing colonialism is just stacking the deck in favor of the colonists.

Read my post again. What is insulting? Describing behavior as cowardly, and then backing it up with two points that remain unanswered?

I could understand if the posts were baseless rants directly insulting the person I replied to with no content whatsoever, but that is not what happened.

All of the words in that post were appropriate, given the thesis.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#45

Logically speaking for India to reduce its total emissions one of two things should happen: a huge number of people in India should die or Indians should consume almost nothing (everything else being equal.) I don't understand how anyone can fault India for its current stance given that the state we are in was caused by the developed countries. The only way anyone can fault India is by asserting that an Indian life i…

The problem is that climate change could create much more damage to India than to other, more developed countries.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#46
post #30
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I was driven to sign up and comment by your snide remark about cholera being "imported from India, as it happens". But you do make some important points too, though spoiled somewhat by the introduction of John Michael Greer, whose involvement with what I call 'non-evidence-based healing techniques' does not make him much credible. About your important points: yes, the industrial revolution (roughly 1750-1950 as you s…

Exactly. So if the greens' claims about solar power are true, then the -major part of- the pollution will soon stop. If they're false, it's a lost cause. People are not going to lower their living standard, especially not in India, to comply with new limitations. So let's see.

If renewable energy doesn't live up to hopes, what's at fate is the future of industrialized civilization (and possibly the human species).

I've got my own very serious doubts as to how much energy can be delivered, and at what EROEI, from renewable / sustainable sources. The good news is that we've got technology, science, and understanding now which we didn't have 250 years ago, and the odds are very good that they'll survive even a profound decline in industrial and economic capacity. But to think that national and/or global economies will continue plugging away without energy sources of some stripe (and fossil fuels are going to become untenable whether for environmental, supply, extraction cost, EROEI, or other bases) is sheer fantasy.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#47
post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So was Ireland, were not doing too bad now, thank you

And for anyone who discounts the affects of English dominion over Ireland, look up the history of the Irish Potato Famine, during which England continued exports of grain and beef from Ireland to England. This was while one million people died of starvation, and a million more emigrated (most to the US and Canada), a fifth to a quarter of the island's population. A classic case of distribution inequity. The implicati…

The general point "history is rife with inequities" is not going to mean anything to any developing nation. "History is rife with inequities" only means something to rich westerners.

You are not going to get India on board by claiming Ireland had it just as bad. India's GDP per capita is $1500. Ireland's is $45000. That's a factor of 30.

China is going to think the same way. They are going to see any bluster from western countries about emissions as thinly veiled attacks on their ability to industrialize. That's a perfectly reasonable opinion.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#48

Logically speaking for India to reduce its total emissions one of two things should happen: a huge number of people in India should die or Indians should consume almost nothing (everything else being equal.) I don't understand how anyone can fault India for its current stance given that the state we are in was caused by the developed countries. The only way anyone can fault India is by asserting that an Indian life i…

for India to reduce its total emissions one of two things should happen

There are two other possibilities you don't consider:

1. India could prevail in negotiating for carbon emission reductions elsewhere (the US, EU, Japan). Technology transfers greatly increasing India's GDP/bbl wouldn't hurt either -- it's presently around $400/bbl, the US sees $1000/bbl, most of Europe is in the $1500-$3000/bbl range.

2. Stunning advances in renewable, sustainable, and/or low-carbon energy technologies could allow for growth in India's standard of living without additional carbon emissions. I put the likelihood of this as low.

Long run: there's a balance of population and per-capita resource consumption. The total sustainable rate is fixed. The question is: do you wish for a future with a very high population, or a for one with a high per-capita standard of living? They're at odds.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#49
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly. So if the greens' claims about solar power are true, then the -major part of- the pollution will soon stop. If they're false, it's a lost cause. People are not going to lower their living standard, especially not in India, to comply with new limitations. So let's see.

If renewable energy doesn't live up to hopes, what's at fate is the future of industrialized civilization (and possibly the human species). I've got my own very serious doubts as to how much energy can be delivered, and at what EROEI, from renewable / sustainable sources. The good news is that we've got technology, science, and understanding now which we didn't have 250 years ago, and the odds are very good that they…

Curated:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/06/07/1214314/-World-s-La...

A remarkable statement from the largest coal company in the world. Coal India produces more than 80 percent of India’s coal, and not only is it turning to solar as an efficient business practice, it understands India cannot power itself by coal.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#50
post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And for anyone who discounts the affects of English dominion over Ireland, look up the history of the Irish Potato Famine, during which England continued exports of grain and beef from Ireland to England. This was while one million people died of starvation, and a million more emigrated (most to the US and Canada), a fifth to a quarter of the island's population. A classic case of distribution inequity. The implicati…

The general point "history is rife with inequities" is not going to mean anything to any developing nation. "History is rife with inequities" only means something to rich westerners. You are not going to get India on board by claiming Ireland had it just as bad. India's GDP per capita is $1500. Ireland's is $45000. That's a factor of 30. China is going to think the same way. They are going to see any bluster from wes…

"history is rife with inequities" is not going to mean anything to any developing nation.

There are plenty of developing nations with their own histories of conflict. India and Pakistan come to mind. Much of Africa. Much of SE Asia and (take your pick) Japan and/or China (I'm omitting the colonial cases of Britain, France, the Netherlands, and the US here).

So: you're wearing LDC blinders. And my broader point is we need to get over this. Not ignore it, but get over it.

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