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India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

slate.com

11–20 of 65 posts

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#11
A counter argument - http://swaminomics.org/a-climate-summit-that-matters-little/

From the perspective of India or for that matter any developing nation aspiring to free its people from the shackles of poverty the above argument is commonsensical (sic) while the Slate article is condescending and biased in favour of developed countries.

Excerpts from the above article -

Copenhagen hardly matters. If it doesn’t produce an agreement, it clearly won’t matter. But even if it yields an agreement, that will matter very little.

Why? Because reducing carbon emissions by 80% from the 1990 levels – the target for 2050 for rich countries – depends on technological breakthroughs, not political pledges at Copenhagen.

...

In the Kyoto treaty on climate change, 37 rich countries pledged to reduce their carbon emissions to 5% below their 1990 level. But most actually increased their emissions. These very treaty-breakers now propose another treaty!

...

Despite climate uncertainties, it makes sense to mitigate emissions as insurance against a disaster that may never happen. Treaties are often signed to provide mutual insurance against political and economic risks. But if the insurance premium becomes costly enough to threaten economic distress, governments will abandon the treaties (a la Maastricht). No government will create a recession today to avoid a future disaster that may not happen anyway.

The lesson for Indian strategy at Copenhagen is clear. India should talk tough and not worry about being called a deal-breaker. When a deal’s value is so uncertain, it matters little whether it’s broken or not. India should keep its commitments light, and be ready to jump ship if others do. Never assume that others will actually implement climate pledges.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#12
post #2

The problem with these talks are that from a developing country's perspective it looks like developed nations used cheap energy to get ahead. Now they want to curb usage of cheap energy in developing nations because: 1. Suddenly, they're affected by climate change, or claim to be. 2. It's just a ploy to increase energy costs for developing nations and keep them behind. This may or may not be true but with this kind o…

Yeah. Bang on. That is how it is. Climb the ladder and then throw it away so that others can't get to where you are. That fact of the matter is that every economy goes through this cycle (of growing up). Child labor, poor health-care, now pollution and soon patents. While not being pertinent to this discussion, the country with the greatest patent lobbying bodies is also the country that committed the greatest IPR vi…

It's not a perfect cycle. LA's terrible smog was not a result of not caring, it was a result of the catalytic converter not existing.

Guess what, the catalytic converter exists now.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#13
post #2

The problem with these talks are that from a developing country's perspective it looks like developed nations used cheap energy to get ahead. Now they want to curb usage of cheap energy in developing nations because: 1. Suddenly, they're affected by climate change, or claim to be. 2. It's just a ploy to increase energy costs for developing nations and keep them behind. This may or may not be true but with this kind o…

...developing country's perspective it looks like developed nations used cheap energy to get ahead. Now they want to curb usage of cheap energy in developing nations because:

1. Suddenly, they're affected by climate change, or claim to be.

2. It's just a ploy to increase energy costs for developing nations and keep them behind.

You're spot on, there.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#14
The dilemma: the GDP growth of China and India are almost wholly accounted for by increasing energy consumption, as I've detailed on G+:

https://plus.google.com/104092656004159577193/posts/LyQx8fcv...

You can see the relationship between GDP and energy via Wolfram+Alpha:

China: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=china+total+primary+ene...

India: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=india+total+primary+ene...

That said: the entire planet's got a bit of a problem, and the truth is that growing the economies of China and India through yet more increased fossil fuel consumption (much of both nation's energy comes from the worst possible source: coal), will have tremendously bad consequences.

Another factor is that the promise of economic growth has long stood in for efforts to produce greater equity -- with a growing pie, a promise of a better future can be made to all. When the pie stops growing (or even slows markedly) that relief valve is no longer available. Worse, the dynamics of various systems and institutions, including liberal democratic ones (but also "free market" systems) appear to behave pathologically under resource constraint circumstances (not that non-democratic ones behave better in all cases). It's a rather sticky problem (and for the record: I happen to like many of the features of democratic and liberal institutions).

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#15
post #9
post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

India has also been given opportunities never available to western countries during their period of industrialization, such as access to a wide variety of medicine and technology. I would just like it to be clear that India is in a different situation than what many others were at comparable levels of development.

I don't see how access to medicine makes any difference to climate change policies. I'll leave that aside. I don't quite get what you mean by "during their period of industrialization". Industrial progress does not work that way. One can't just pick a number (e.g. 25) and say India is 25 years behind the developed countries in its path to industrialization. Some Indians are still living in the stone age [1]. Others,…

I don't see how access to medicine makes any difference

Look over the history of the Industrial Revolution -- roughly 1750 - 1950. At the start of that we had no real working engines, transportation systems, concept of energy or thermodynamics, understanding of evolution or germ theory, and a whole host of other concepts, as well as practical technologies: steam engines, metalurgy, steel, chemicals, electricity, communications, fertilizers, drugs, information technology.

The countries modernizing now do have all of these things, and the possibility of avoiding many of the mistakes which were made by the countries which pioneered the transition (England, the US, Germany, France, and the rest of Western Europe).

As late as 1860, cholera epidemics were killing millions of people throughout Europe and tens of thousands in London alone (imported from India, as it happens). Sewerage systems, water treatment, antisceptics, anesthesia, and eventually antibiotics came out of this -- but the first two alone provided the lion's share of life-expectancy gains in England and the US.

The other thing we're very well aware of now is that 1) continuing to extract fossil fuel resources at the rates we've been doing will drastically change the climate and living conditions on Earth, possibly irrevocably and fatally to no only the economy but humans and most large animal species, and 2) those fossil resources will be too difficult to find and extract for net energy gain within the forseable future regardless. And those are only two of many impinging constraints humans face.

The recycling economy of which you write is only one change which will likely become far more widespread. John Michael Greer's notion of "catabolic collapse" -- which explains both much of the financialization and "software eats everything" aspects of the past two decades -- extends that idea:

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2011/01/onset-of-cata...

http://www.ecoshock.org/transcripts/greer_on_collapse.pdf

Look to your own Indus Valley Civilization for an earlier instance (an no, this time is not different).

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#16
post #5

Logically speaking for India to reduce its total emissions one of two things should happen: a huge number of people in India should die or Indians should consume almost nothing (everything else being equal.) I don't understand how anyone can fault India for its current stance given that the state we are in was caused by the developed countries. The only way anyone can fault India is by asserting that an Indian life i…

From a climate change perspective, yes. But from just a general air pollution perspective, a lot of effective regulation needs to happen for industries to stop pumping noxious gases into the atmosphere. There are hardly any limits on industries and they can pump whatever they feel like into the air. Catalytic convertors for factories ? Almost non-existent! I know that the discussion of general air pollution is slight…

Actually India is going to be hard-hit by climate change on several fronts. Firstly, many parts of southern India are low-lying and will be affected by rising sea levels. Then there's the effect that India is in the tropical zone - they've already experienced devastating monsoons and this is only predicted to get worse (see Typhoon Yolanda) as time goes by. Lastly, those glaciers aren't far away, they're right there in the Himalayas - India can expect to have major problems with drinking water supplies as those glaciers melt.

I'm not up with Indian politics, but I rather suspect that the current refusal to deal with emissions is more about climate change denialism mixed in with a sense of anti-colonial defiance than anything else. Don't forget that it's actually easier, politically speaking, for a developing country such as India to adopt renewable energy than it is for the developed world, goodness knows they have the engineers to make it happen! We need baseload power, our society has been constructed expecting it to exist, but as Indian populations get electricity, it's not going to be a major drama if electricity supply is intermittent - that's still way better than no electricity at all.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#17
post #2

The problem with these talks are that from a developing country's perspective it looks like developed nations used cheap energy to get ahead. Now they want to curb usage of cheap energy in developing nations because: 1. Suddenly, they're affected by climate change, or claim to be. 2. It's just a ploy to increase energy costs for developing nations and keep them behind. This may or may not be true but with this kind o…

on the topic of Delhi, perhaps it is pertinent to read this - http://blog.ksidc.org/cng-cleans-up-delhi-air-kerala-awaits-...

or this

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/bharat-stage-iii-vehicles-...

There are enough of us trying to change the system from within (notwithstanding the Delhi election day after tomorrow). This has resulted in pollution being one of the main aspects of all three major political parties manifesto ([1] vs [2] vs [3])

So let's not say that "it isn't a cause for concern".

[1] http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/we-will-work-free-delh... [2] http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/congress-manifesto-pro... [3] http://www.downtoearth.org.in/content/bjp-manifesto-taps-pub...

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#18
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't see how access to medicine makes any difference to climate change policies. I'll leave that aside. I don't quite get what you mean by "during their period of industrialization". Industrial progress does not work that way. One can't just pick a number (e.g. 25) and say India is 25 years behind the developed countries in its path to industrialization. Some Indians are still living in the stone age [1]. Others,…

I don't see how access to medicine makes any difference Look over the history of the Industrial Revolution -- roughly 1750 - 1950. At the start of that we had no real working engines, transportation systems, concept of energy or thermodynamics, understanding of evolution or germ theory, and a whole host of other concepts, as well as practical technologies: steam engines, metalurgy, steel, chemicals, electricity, comm…

> I don't see how access to medicine makes any difference

That's not quite what I said.

> but the first two alone provided the lion's share of life-expectancy gains in England and the US.

Longer lives => contributing to pollution for a longer period... Are you making the point that modern medicine has contributed to global warming?

> The other thing we're very well aware of now is that 1) continuing to extract fossil fuel resources...

You replied to me. So I think you're responding to something I said. I don't see to what.

As for the Indus Valley Civilization, there are many hypotheses about its collapse, but there is little consensus in academia for its contributing factors. Each person seems to float his own pet theory about the matter, quickly contradicted by another person showing evidence to the contrary. Maybe "catabolic collapse" is a real phenomenon. I looked up John Michael Greer on Wikipedia, and lost all interest in it for now.

Re: India blocking climate talks: Warsaw, Bangkok, and Kyoto negotiations

#20
post #4

Logically speaking for India to reduce its total emissions one of two things should happen: a huge number of people in India should die or Indians should consume almost nothing (everything else being equal.) I don't understand how anyone can fault India for its current stance given that the state we are in was caused by the developed countries. The only way anyone can fault India is by asserting that an Indian life i…

India has also been given opportunities never available to western countries during their period of industrialization, such as access to a wide variety of medicine and technology. I would just like it to be clear that India is in a different situation than what many others were at comparable levels of development.

India was also colonized.

You aren't being unbiased when you point out medicine and technology, but not colonialism.

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