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A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#421

Post by phaemon »

fat0wl wrote: post #417
phaemon wrote: post #408

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> My intuition says that the storeowner has no reason to accept. Well, of course they don't. Things have just got worse for them. But that's exactly what happened to many local retailers when their customers realised they could get stuff cheaper by ordering over the Internet than they could buying locally. It's just how things go. > However, I do not believe Bitcoin is a stock, so I'm not sure what it is. It's an inf…

eh you lost me, man. he still has the option to only take USD or use a 3rd party payment processor. At the moment, it seems that this approach is not costing any businesses in sales, since Bitcoin is still used infrequently as currency. The only point it actually becomes a currency itself is when the shop owner stops using a 3rd party processor and says "you know what? I'm comfortable just holding onto these". With t…

> eh you lost me, man. he still has the option to only take USD or use a 3rd party payment processor.

Uh, no he doesn't. He only takes Units. We're talking about your hypothetical melon salesman, remember?

> Better solutions will emerge and could just co-opt the Bitcoin infrastructure.

Probably. I would certainly hope so! That doesn't stop Bitcoin being valuable right now and new solutions being more valuable in the future. There's no reason not to have several competing digital currencies on the go.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#422

Post by kdeforche »

jasonwocky wrote: post #301
kdeforche wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sounds like nonsense to me: if you buy 1 BTC from me, then at the same time I've sold 1 BTC? That makes it by definition as equally hard (or easy) to buy as to sell?

No. Try buying an iPhone 3g right now on Craigslist. I bet it takes you all of two minutes. Then try selling it. I bet it takes quite a bit more time. Asymmetry.

That would imply there are currently more people wanting to sell an IPhone 3G than people want to buy it. Certainly the price of IPhone 3G's isn't rising. And that makes sense.

Currently (and for the last years), the price of BTC has been rising implying that's actually easier to sell BTC than to buy? Moreover there are exchanges that are entirely symmetric (when opening accounts you do not need to qualify as a buyer or seller).

Asymmetry is a nice word but I don't see what's asymmetric here?

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#423

Post by dinkumthinkum »

geoka9 wrote: post #348
dinkumthinkum wrote: post #342

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well gold has this one minor benefit test it is intrinsically valuable ... That and you don't have to. A nerd to understand how to use it.

> gold has this one minor benefit test it is intrinsically valuable You can't explain the high price of gold merely by its intrinsic value. OK, it's shiny, but there are other sniny metals. It can be used in electronics, or as filling/crown material - but it was valuable before people started using it for that. So much for the intrinsic value. So it must be something else that makes gold as valuable as it has always…

You just waved your hands around a little. Gold has intrinsic value. You say other metals are shiny ... Well ... wow ... They have intrinsic value as well.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#424

Post by eliwjones »

gress wrote: post #280
eliwjones wrote: post #183

Bitcoin is "doomed" to fail (as a currency) by the simple fact that the supply is capped at 21 million. This relegates it to the status as a "virtual collectible" (as someone so humorously put it). Maybe Bitcoin 2.0 will be smart and remove a cap (or build in the ability to allow itself to float).. but Bitcoin as it is isn't flexible enough.

Bitcoins are divisible to 8 decimal places. Why are more needed?

Hmm, thanks for this bit (pun?) of information.

So, I guess the question becomes.. is there a (or what is the) difference between:

1. [0, ∞)

2. (0,1]

when it comes to a currency?

I think that the traditional "boil the frog" approach of monetary inflation is psychologically easier for people to take.

A central authority just sort of wills new currency into existence as it is demanded.. Which, presumably, allows for price stability.

To me, the fact that it is hard to get "1 bitcoin" makes it too unstable. Someone could will 0.001 bitcoin into existence and pay $1 for it.. but, that 0.001 bitcoin may be worth $0.50 tomorrow (but then worth $3 the next week). So.. what's the point (presuming I desire an alternative currency).

One needs a clever way to create an "algorithm" (seems people think this stuff is as magical as the idea of a central bank).. that people trust to sell currency units.

The system would just run and sell 1 bitcoin (or 1 mystery coin or whatnot) for $1 to anyone who wanted it. The goal would be to achieve parity with the dollar (and maybe any other currency).

The thing this magic algorithm would NOT do is.. it would not BUY its mystery coins back. It would just create a verifiable.. non-counterfeit coin for anyone who desired one for a set price.

If a deflationary spiral set in on the dollar.. well, magic algorithm learned from Soros and the Bank of England.. you don't fight that..

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#425

Post by alttab »

eru wrote: post #366
alttab wrote: post #320

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The bitcoin price won't stabilize until it's operation literally dictates demand. Once for all practical purposes everyday life is handled in satoshis, how does an economy expand?

Just like gold standard economies expanded in the 19th century?

How was that? Not being snarky, I'm just wondering what you mean.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#426

Post by mercer »

kens wrote: post #156

My prediction is that bitcoins are midway through a short-lived bubble and then rapidly fall to approximately 0, and in a few years people will look back with the disbelief now reserved for pets.com. The hype - get in right now and get rich, or you'll miss out and kick yourself - reminds me of 1999. My in-laws were talking about bitcoins yesterday, so bitcoins are getting the attention of the public at large; I take…

What I think a lot of people are missing when comparing bitcoin to the dot-com bubble is that while it was followed by a spectacular crash, not only did the internet 'succeed' anyways, just later, a whole bunch of companies succeeded right along with it.

I think there's a big crash coming, but I think that won't say much about the long-term success of bitcoin. The most likely case I see for bitcoin failing is that it's replaced by another cryptocurrency, and that's still great in my book.

(I got my original investment back with btc to spare, so thankfully my finances will be unaffected either way)

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#427

Post by jasonwocky »

kdeforche wrote: post #422
jasonwocky wrote: post #301

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No. Try buying an iPhone 3g right now on Craigslist. I bet it takes you all of two minutes. Then try selling it. I bet it takes quite a bit more time. Asymmetry.

That would imply there are currently more people wanting to sell an IPhone 3G than people want to buy it. Certainly the price of IPhone 3G's isn't rising. And that makes sense. Currently (and for the last years), the price of BTC has been rising implying that's actually easier to sell BTC than to buy? Moreover there are exchanges that are entirely symmetric (when opening accounts you do not need to qualify as a buyer…

I'm not familiar enough with Bitcoin to engage in dialogue about its market dynamics specifically. I only wanted to point out that the mere fact that all sales involve both a buyer and a seller doesn't make it "by definition as equally hard (or easy) to buy as to sell".

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#428

Post by waps »

eru wrote: post #363
waps wrote: post #253

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes it does seem like bitcoin is lacking in a few places. You could (try to) add things like * disconnected operation (solve the double spend problem in a disconnected setting) (this would really make something gold-equivalent) * a provably correct, but cryptographically secure ledger (meaning real anonymity) * proof of work based on a single crypto standard seems risky. Use 5 of them. * provably no way to compromise…

Zerocoin is trying to solve the second problem. Combining 5 proof of work standards just gives you 1 new one. (There might be some robustness to be gained, though.)

Cool, I didn't know about zerocoin. There goes my afternoon.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#429

Post by interstitial »

Aqueous wrote: post #401
reginaldjcooper wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nice observation. Yes bitcoins are exactly like tulips but moreso. In fact, in the future, bitcoin prices will drop below zero and these idiots will have to pay others to get rid of them. I'm looking forward to the expressions on their dumb faces when they realize they are in a pyramid scheme balanced on top of a bubble resting on top of a bridge over some swampland in Florida.

That would probably be the case if any of us were stupid enough to put our retirement savings or anything that we critically need into BitCoin. The smart money is on putting an early investment in, waiting till it doubles or triples then pulling the initial investment out. That way you literally can't lose - at the very worst you break even. Most people have put a quite expendable amount of money into BitCoin. Even w…

Well, you are doing it right. We know from all bubbles past, though, plenty do it wrong -- all in and even all in on credit cards.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#430

Post by eru »

alttab wrote: post #425
eru wrote: post #366

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just like gold standard economies expanded in the 19th century?

How was that? Not being snarky, I'm just wondering what you mean.

I'm not sure how to answer that question. An answer would either be horribly generic or extremely long (or both). I suggest you start reading some history books (or just start on Wikipedia).

Basically, a full bitcoin economy is a bit like an economy on a gold standard. Not perfectly, since gold is still being mined, and the rate of mining depends on its price.

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