A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail • Hacker News Board

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#361

Post by c0n5pir4cy » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 10:19 AM UTC

ceol wrote: post #310

dcc1 wrote: post #99

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you remember when computers used to take whole rooms and apparently "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." and "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." Now iam replying to this from a phone Just saying technologies improve over time, bitcoin is a very interesting mix of technologies, probably the most exciting thing to come along since email, web, bittorent and social ne…

The most exciting thing since the web? Really? It's an interesting technology, but let's not forget Foursquare launched the same year and has had more of an impact on business, and Instagram launched a year after and has had more of an impact on the general population.

Bitcoin was engineered to take time, it wouldn't be as popular as it is now if things played out differently.

In fact the whole value of the currency is based on the fact it takes work, and therefore time, to create.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Post by eru » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 10:27 AM UTC

jpindar wrote: post #184

rimantas wrote: post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did you forget about wire transfers? At least where I live it is possible to live without touching physical money for a long long time, we have pretty advanced e-banking and m-banking (and we never had checkbooks). Yes id does involve the bank, but from the end user perspective it is almost no overhead and sometimes even saves the trouble. Is stuff like direct-debit even possible with bitcoin?

I haven't heard of any, but AFAIK there's nothing preventing someone from writing a wallet that allows automated payments or the equivalent of direct-debit, with or without the involvement of a bank.

Direct-debit is undoable. That's one of its key-features.

You can add direct-debit to bitcoint with a trusted third party. (And there might even be clever ways to do direct debit in bitcoin without that third party.)

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Post by eru » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 10:34 AM UTC

waps wrote: post #253

reflectiv wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly... Even if you take the assumption that bitcoin will fail, the problems/issues the protocol or something similar solves are far too beneficial to ignore. So basically if bitcoin fails, some other similar form of digital currency will rise up in its place. I feel as though its a 'cat is out of the bag' scenario.

Yes it does seem like bitcoin is lacking in a few places. You could (try to) add things like * disconnected operation (solve the double spend problem in a disconnected setting) (this would really make something gold-equivalent) * a provably correct, but cryptographically secure ledger (meaning real anonymity) * proof of work based on a single crypto standard seems risky. Use 5 of them. * provably no way to compromise…

Zerocoin is trying to solve the second problem.

Combining 5 proof of work standards just gives you 1 new one. (There might be some robustness to be gained, though.)

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Post by hcho » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 11:04 AM UTC

michaelochurch wrote: post #297

BitCoin has one egregious and obvious flaw. There is absolutely no defense against the creation of a competing but otherwise identical cryptocurrency-- say, ZitCoin. If I create my own dollar and claim it is backed by the U.S. Government, I am breaking the law. Until a few decades ago, it was physically impossible to create new gold (and now it is still prohibitively expensive-- and radioactive). There is nothing tha…

There's already LiteCoin and others which don't seem to undermine BitCoin. You might need to reevaluate your position.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Post by eru » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 11:08 AM UTC

betterunix wrote: post #314

nostrademons wrote: post #14

I think Bitcoin's doomed to fail, but not for the reasons the article suggest. There're ample historical counterexamples of currencies that are not tied to a government. Gold is the most obvious example; if currency was inextricably tied to governments, there would not have been a mad rush to colonize the New World (and extract its gold reserves). In prisons cigarettes frequently serve as currency, as a medium of exc…

"There're ample historical counterexamples of currencies that are not tied to a government. Gold is the most obvious example" ...governments were accepting gold for tax purposes, kings were filling their treasuries with gold, armies were sent to steal gold from other countries, etc. Gold was absolutely tied to government when it was used as currency, and I am using the past tense here because gold is not a currency o…

Network effects.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Post by eru » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 11:08 AM UTC

alttab wrote: post #320

DrJokepu wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In addition, there are various measures a government or a central bank can take to stop or at least slow down escalating inflation. If there was a sudden loss of confidence in BitCoin (or more realistically, people lost confidence in other people’s confidence in BitCoin), such hyperinflation would spread and escalate with the speed of light with nothing to stop it. This kind of volatility might be interesting for spe…

The bitcoin price won't stabilize until it's operation literally dictates demand. Once for all practical purposes everyday life is handled in satoshis, how does an economy expand?

Just like gold standard economies expanded in the 19th century?

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Post by junto » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 11:10 AM UTC

fragsworth wrote: post #93

There is only one legitimate threat to Bitcoin that I can see - a world government. I don't believe we have a world government now, but the conspiracy theorist inside me warns otherwise.

We aren't _that_ far off. Not in terms of the Star Trek conceptual world government ideology, but more the hidden organisations that are sponsored by corporations, such as those behind the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP).

If _they_ believe that Bitcoin places a threat upon their positions of power, then Bitcoin will be crushed and if they can't crush it, they'll make it illegal. Or they'll do it the German way, and they'll allow it, but tax it to fuck.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Post by scotty79 » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 11:13 AM UTC

One migh expect better researched article from someone who has a degree in also mathematics: https://sites.google.com/site/edwardhadas/biography

I guess he focused more on philosophy (unfounded ramblings) and journalism in his life.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Post by ulvund » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 11:16 AM UTC

gress wrote: post #280

eliwjones wrote: post #183

Bitcoin is "doomed" to fail (as a currency) by the simple fact that the supply is capped at 21 million. This relegates it to the status as a "virtual collectible" (as someone so humorously put it). Maybe Bitcoin 2.0 will be smart and remove a cap (or build in the ability to allow itself to float).. but Bitcoin as it is isn't flexible enough.

Bitcoins are divisible to 8 decimal places. Why are more needed?

They are infinitely divisible

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Post by scotty79 » Thu, Nov 28, 2013, 11:25 AM UTC

maaku wrote: post #349

Bootvis wrote: post #343

Earlier quoted context omitted.

However, with Bitcoin the percentage claim on the total economy is constant. So, in a sense, the real price of all consumer goods also remains constant. In this view there is no inflation or deflation and inflation indeed is a purely monetary phenomenon. What is correct view? I don't know, the only thing I remember about the monetary economics class I took, is that the professor and I didn't agree. About what I don't…

> So, in a sense, the real price of all consumer goods also remains constant. No, you're ignoring GDP growth. As the bitcoin economy grows (more goods and services available), the share of the pie 1 bitcoin represents correspondingly grows. This results in decreasing prices, i.e. price deflation.

That's right. Government through banks has to issue new money just to keep up and keep prices of consumer goods fairly constant and prevent deflation which is considered bad because last few times people tended to stuff cash in mattresses then and there was not enough physical cash left on the market to facilitate the trades. Also deflation increases tendency of consumers to save what they earned and noone in America wants that.