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A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

dealbook.nytimes.com

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Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#91
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something that might be considered an "intrinsic" value of bitcoin is its ability to instantly and securely transfer wealth across large distances at zero or near-zero cost. This is an feature not present in some of the incumbent currencies and store-of-value assets. For example, physically shipping hundreds of kilograms of gold (or physical, folding USD) is a costly exercise fraught with security risks, and the risk…

This intrinsic value can be mirrored by any cryptocurrency or even just a parallel network of Bitcoin. It is no justification for $1000/coin the way overzealous BTC investors claim.

Network Effect

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I mean, aren't you the one who should be providing citations?

Nope. It's good policy to expect that a govt. can do anything, unless presented with evidence to the contrary. This is a good rule of thumb, mostly because its true. I'm not sure why people have trouble understanding this (poor civics classes? too dense?) but the US govt. can do anything it physically can. Sure, it may require a constitutional amendment, but if the political will is there the govt. can do anything .…

"It's good policy to expect that a govt. can do anything, unless presented with evidence to the contrary."

WTF does this sentence even mean. Evidence to the contrary that the gov't can't do anything? Could you give an example of such a piece of evidence?

Also TIL Disney dollar is against the constitution.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#94
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nope. Gold is used in limited quantities for plating pins in electronics, covering space helmets, and probably a few other things. It's really not that valuable for getting shit done and need a lot of it type of stuff.

If by limited quantities you mean "about 400 tons a year" (and that's not counting dentistry or jewelry) then yes. 11,666,666 troy ounces $15,108,332,470 at today's prices. If you do count jewelry, increase those figured by approx. an order of magnitude.

400 tons a year is nothing compared to other industrial metals. By comparison, world production of copper is 17 million tonnes per year.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#95
post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

I think most people only care about its failure in the 'money' sense.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#96
post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something that might be considered an "intrinsic" value of bitcoin is its ability to instantly and securely transfer wealth across large distances at zero or near-zero cost. This is an feature not present in some of the incumbent currencies and store-of-value assets. For example, physically shipping hundreds of kilograms of gold (or physical, folding USD) is a costly exercise fraught with security risks, and the risk…

This intrinsic value can be mirrored by any cryptocurrency or even just a parallel network of Bitcoin. It is no justification for $1000/coin the way overzealous BTC investors claim.

Any protocol could come along and displace http, or a parallel internet could come along and displace it. But we're going on 22 years now and that's how we're communicating.

What if these protocols are not so easily displaced as you imagine?

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#97

I think Bitcoin's doomed to fail, but not for the reasons the article suggest. There're ample historical counterexamples of currencies that are not tied to a government. Gold is the most obvious example; if currency was inextricably tied to governments, there would not have been a mad rush to colonize the New World (and extract its gold reserves). In prisons cigarettes frequently serve as currency, as a medium of exc…

> Government backing can provide one source of confidence. But so can strong crypto, and one could argue that these days people have more confidence in crypto than in governments.

Not quite. The confidence in "normal" fiat currency arises not so much from government backing, but from the fact that a well-managed national currency envelopes the GDP of a national economy. Government really needs fiscal discipline to not break the system (the consequences are well known); the trust part comes from the health of national economy and intersection of interests of all involved players.

Consider a major issuer like USA or Eurozone. The strength of their currencies stems from strength of the backing economies. In theory, the government could try fooling the system and run the printing press amok. In practice, such a government would be very short-lived, as it would piss off just about every person with money.

Save for outliers like Zimbabwe, there aren't really many cases of modern governments running themselves in the ground like that. Usually, runaway inflation is a consequence of a catastrophic event in the economy (bubbles, wars, loss of markets and other externalities).

Now, a super-fiat currency like Bitcoin is not backed by anything like that. It is a virtual construct with finite supply, and crypto is just a production vehicle here. It envelopes no economy, so the all trust here comes from compound interest of people who invest into it.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#98
post #94
post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If by limited quantities you mean "about 400 tons a year" (and that's not counting dentistry or jewelry) then yes. 11,666,666 troy ounces $15,108,332,470 at today's prices. If you do count jewelry, increase those figured by approx. an order of magnitude.

400 tons a year is nothing compared to other industrial metals. By comparison, world production of copper is 17 million tonnes per year.

$150 billion a year is nothing?

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#99
post #78
post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

Please explain how bitcoin can discern vicarious liability. You're still going to need lawyers. Please explain how a bitcoin blockchain record can testify in court that a copy of a document is authentic. Hint, you're infront of a jury, you have a blockchain hash, and opposing council has a notary public with 40 years of experience, both copies of the document differ, the original cannot be found. Hers has an official…

Do you remember when computers used to take whole rooms and apparently "Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons." and "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."

Now iam replying to this from a phone

Just saying technologies improve over time, bitcoin is a very interesting mix of technologies, probably the most exciting thing to come along since email, web, bittorent and social networks

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#100
post #86

As I see it, both governments (states) and the bitcoin algorithm are mechanisms that are endorsed by their community to simplify a control problem. Governments have more mechanisms to adapt to changes in public opinion, while bitcoin deals with a more specific problem. If bitcoin loses endorsement, it will be replaced (traded) for other goods, probably the next generation cryptocurrency. The same goes for governments…

I really like that description.
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