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A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

dealbook.nytimes.com

51–60 of 431 posts

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#51
post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

"Experts are clueless" -Steve Jobs

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#52
post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

Also, don't forget that people like to come out on record for/against hot ideas/topics/predictions. In the event they are right, they ride the success all the way to the fame and monetary bank. If they're wrong, such an article is usually forgotten and lost in the sea of bitcoin press.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#54
post #33
post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

Or a failure, depending on one's perspective. Edit rationale: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6810806

Calling it a failure without making a rationalization about why it's a failure could be considered a failure in itself.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#55
post #20

I think Bitcoin's doomed to fail, but not for the reasons the article suggest. There're ample historical counterexamples of currencies that are not tied to a government. Gold is the most obvious example; if currency was inextricably tied to governments, there would not have been a mad rush to colonize the New World (and extract its gold reserves). In prisons cigarettes frequently serve as currency, as a medium of exc…

Also, with gold, there is intrinsic value beyond the monetary - jewelry use, or in these moderns days in electronics. That provides a value floor. Bitcoin doesn't have that.

Something that might be considered an "intrinsic" value of bitcoin is its ability to instantly and securely transfer wealth across large distances at zero or near-zero cost. This is an feature not present in some of the incumbent currencies and store-of-value assets.

For example, physically shipping hundreds of kilograms of gold (or physical, folding USD) is a costly exercise fraught with security risks, and the risk profile varies depending on many factors, for instance the political situations in the sending and receiving countries.

Transferring large amounts of electronic USD across international borders via the traditional banking system is going to invoke all kinds of reporting requirements, and possibly higher transaction costs (though you can do large wire transfers for like $25 I think).

Transferring arbitrary amounts via bitcoin is easy, secure and the transaction itself is cost-effective (notwithstanding the current relative difficulty/expense of moving large amounts of fiat currency into and out of bitcoin in the first place, which problem I'd expect to ease as the btc economy matures).

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#56
post #29

Bitcoin befuddles experts who analyze it from a narrow perspective, because it is not just a new medium of exchange or a new store of value: it is also a new kind of point-of-sale payment system (one that doesn't require payment processors), a new kind of global financial transfer system (one that doesn't require financial institutions), a new kind of time-stamping certification system (one that doesn't require notar…

Befuddles eh?

I'll just leave this here... http://www.befuddled.org/

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#58
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that the gov't has the power to say that.

They did that with gold during the 1930s.

But that was a different situation because it was before the end of the gold standard. For one thing and for another if you are talking about Executive Order 6102, that was about gold hoarding, not using it as currency.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#59
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or a failure, depending on one's perspective. Edit rationale: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6810806

Calling it a failure without making a rationalization about why it's a failure could be considered a failure in itself.

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6810806

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#60
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, with gold, there is intrinsic value beyond the monetary - jewelry use, or in these moderns days in electronics. That provides a value floor. Bitcoin doesn't have that.

Something that might be considered an "intrinsic" value of bitcoin is its ability to instantly and securely transfer wealth across large distances at zero or near-zero cost. This is an feature not present in some of the incumbent currencies and store-of-value assets. For example, physically shipping hundreds of kilograms of gold (or physical, folding USD) is a costly exercise fraught with security risks, and the risk…

I think you misunderstand me. I am talk about non-currency use. If the Bitcoin network collapses, you have nothing. The market for gold by definition cannot collapse to zero as it has non-currency industrial and decorative value.
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