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A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#241

Post by GhotiFish »

dinkumthinkum wrote: post #192
GhotiFish wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

?? Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them. It's just happening now because some people want into this environment.

I think these kinds of views are what make the bitcoin community seem ridiculous ... It's just constant downplaying of actual upplaying of conspiracy like goldbugs do and it just seems hard for serious and educated people to take seriously.

I'm not downplaying anyting. Bitcoins intention is to be a real currency. You don't turn your dollars into Canadian Tire money to shop at Canadian Tire.

Saying you're not supposed to convert bitcoin is the statement of someone who thinks bitcoin is NOT an investment. So... not a goldbug.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#242

Post by GhotiFish »

coldtea wrote: post #176
GhotiFish wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

?? Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them. It's just happening now because some people want into this environment.

> Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them Yes, unless you want to, you know, buy something...

well use it as it's intended, buy something in bitcoins.

There's even projects that accept donations in bitcoins, you'll see wallet addresses like this: 1JBEGFXW6ywMtZnCbjvKGJXDtdR6g6KmMi

Their utility isn't tied to the fact that you can turn them into more of your favorite currency later, that stupidity is what's driving the current bitcoin bubble. Wait till people realize what you can do with them.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#243

Post by jnbiche »

brador wrote: post #107
Aqueous wrote: post #83

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They are applying old-world money ideas to something that is so new that we don't have useful models yet for deciding how it will behave, thinking that they do apply without loss of content. The rules of supply and demand apply, sure, but none of the other common-sense intuitions about how money works. BitCoins don't have any resistance to movement, or very little. Physical money does. This means the difference betwe…

That's because Bitcoins are relatively easy to buy and very difficult to cash out into real currency. Once enough people see how hard it is to liquidate their Bitcoins back to USD the realization will follow.

Wrong. Have you actually tried to buy a Bitcoin? If not, ask someone who has. At the moment, it's hard for Bitcoin novices to buy Bitcoins, and much less hard to sell them.

Actually, once you've been verified by an exchange (required prior to buying Bitcoins unless you do a private party sale), selling Bitcoins is easy; it's getting your USD wired/ACHed to your bank account that can be time-consuming. This is due to the legacy banking system, and not some problem inherent to Bitcoin.

EDIT: By the way, it's not "very difficult" to sell Bitcoins. If I want to sell a Bitcoin, I log onto my Bitstamp account, put in a limit order. When the sale is executed, I submit a short, pre-filled form for a wire transfer to my bank. I then wait a few days and the money is in my bank account, in USD. Not hard.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#244

Post by stevedekorte »

The points of the article summarized: 1) money must come from the state (because I say so) 2) bitcoin is bad because it appeals to "right wing" people and I'm (presumably) left wing (my enemies friend is my enemy?) 3) again, money must come from the state (because I say so) 4) free markets caused the financial crisis (not massive gov money printing and trillions in implicit backing of credit markets) so free market money must also be bad 5) the value of bitcoin disappears if people loose trust but this could never happen to a gov currency (even though it happens several times a year with fiat currencies around the world) 6) fiat is fine so we don't need any replacement (as long as we ignore the trillions in debt transfer from the bankrupt banks to the bankrupt governments)

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#245

Post by stevedekorte »

The points of the article summarized:

1) money must come from the state (because I say so)

2) bitcoin is bad because it appeals to "right wing" people and I'm (presumably) left wing (my enemy's friend is my enemy?)

3) free markets caused the financial crisis (not massive gov money printing and trillions in implicit backing of credit markets) so free market money must also be bad

4) the value of bitcoin disappears if people loose trust but this could never happen to a gov currency (even though it happens several times a year with fiat currencies around the world)

5) fiat is fine so we don't need a replacement (as long as we ignore the trillions in debt transfer from the bankrupt banks to the bankrupt governments)

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#246

Post by patmcc »

jafaku wrote: post #141
brador wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because Bitcoins are relatively easy to buy and very difficult to cash out into real currency. Once enough people see how hard it is to liquidate their Bitcoins back to USD the realization will follow.

News flash: A transaction requires a buyer and a seller. If you bought Bitcoin, someone else sold Bitcoin.

Yes, but did they cash out into real currency? There are lots of "US dollars" on MtGox sitting in the accounts of people who sold bitcoins. It's clear someone has the US dollars; it's not clear it's in the hands of the sellers (or ever will be).

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#247

Post by reginaldjcooper »

interstitial wrote: post #71
Aqueous wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you use a service like BitPay, which most BitCoin merchants too, you declare your price in dollars and the API uses the current exchange rate to convert it to BitCoin, minute-by-minute. The prices float up and down with the currency, so pricing is largely a non-problem. It makes rational sense for merchants to accept BitCoin and to keep some holdings in BitCoin because the price is increasing at such a rapid pace.…

You can also pay in tulips.

Nice observation. Yes bitcoins are exactly like tulips but moreso. In fact, in the future, bitcoin prices will drop below zero and these idiots will have to pay others to get rid of them. I'm looking forward to the expressions on their dumb faces when they realize they are in a pyramid scheme balanced on top of a bubble resting on top of a bridge over some swampland in Florida.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#248

Post by krapp »

nmarley wrote: post #211
coldtea wrote: post #176

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them Yes, unless you want to, you know, buy something...

Many businesses accept Bitcoins as payment for physical things. The last Bitcoin meetup that I went to was at a bar/grill that accepts BTC as payment. Most of the attendees paid for their drinks with Bitcoin. You don't need to convert to cash in order to buy things with Bitcoin.

"Many businesses" is a very relative term. A more accurate term would be "almost no businesses."

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#249

Post by fiatmoney »

rockyleal wrote: post #229
andrewla wrote: post #148

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I should probably read Graeber's book, though based on what I see here I might find it a bit exhausting. I hear this argument a lot in discussions about bitcoins, and I ask, but have not yet received, a good explanation. Let me ask you if you can summarize the reasoning for why paying taxes in a currency helps a currency? It seems very obvious that the opposite is true -- if you don't have to pay taxes by working in…

The author of the Article summons Graeber in an abysmal way. In 'Debt' Graeber proposes two main ideas, that the State is by no means necessary to have a great economy (he is an anarchist, with small 'a'), and that our current debt-based monetary system is a mess. Bitcoin is debt-free because no one needs to take loans or create bonds since bitcoins are mined. I think Graeber would be (is?) fascinated by them.

"Bitcoin is debt-free... since bitcoins are mined"

That's not true. Debt is perfectly possible with a fixed currency base, and mining or grabbing transaction fees is not a substitute for debt in any way. In fact, you can have a whole expansionary currency system on top of a fixed asset like BTC, in the same way that the USD was once convertible in and out of gold.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#250

Post by jnbiche »

coldtea wrote: post #176
GhotiFish wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

?? Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them. It's just happening now because some people want into this environment.

> Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them Yes, unless you want to, you know, buy something...

I suppose there's nothing I'd ever want to buy from one of the merchants advertising here: http://www.bitcoinblackfriday.com/
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