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A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

dealbook.nytimes.com

221–230 of 431 posts

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#221
With all the news about the meteoric rise in the value of BTC and many folks presumably sitting on a huge paper profit, I haven't seen (or just haven't be looking hard enough) for stories along the lines of: 'I sold my modest holdings of BTC and was able to repay my mortgage; I don't have enough money to stop working but at least I fully own my home and can work four days a week instead of five and spend a bit more time with the kids, etc, etc, etc'.

Or is the unreported reality of BTC is that it is just too difficult to cashout in a big way due to liquidity/transaction fees/general sketchyness of exchanges that will transfer BTC to hard currency?

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#222
post #197

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them Yes, unless you want to, you know, buy something...

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

You realize this list proves the parent's point, not yours? Many categories there have a single provider and none would even breach 1% of providers in your vicinity. I would estimate the probability of not hearing "err... what?" after asking your favorite provider of anything about paying in bitcoins about 1/1000.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes you can. You do not necessarily need a confirmation if you are willing to take a small risk (and a vendor accepts risks much bigger than that if he's in business).

Or I can use actual money and forget all this nonsense ... Which do I choose?

What about credit cards? Chargebacks are quite common.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#226
I love how NYT puts it - private money is bad, and if it is not, governments would kill it it anyway, by whatever means necessary. Thus, private money is bad, and government will be doing you a favor by killing it by whatever means necessary. Oh yes, and there's no private money so it's clearly impossible in reality to have it. Which proves again the government is right to kill it.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#227
post #97

I think Bitcoin's doomed to fail, but not for the reasons the article suggest. There're ample historical counterexamples of currencies that are not tied to a government. Gold is the most obvious example; if currency was inextricably tied to governments, there would not have been a mad rush to colonize the New World (and extract its gold reserves). In prisons cigarettes frequently serve as currency, as a medium of exc…

> Government backing can provide one source of confidence. But so can strong crypto, and one could argue that these days people have more confidence in crypto than in governments. Not quite. The confidence in "normal" fiat currency arises not so much from government backing, but from the fact that a well-managed national currency envelopes the GDP of a national economy. Government really needs fiscal discipline to no…

In addition, there are various measures a government or a central bank can take to stop or at least slow down escalating inflation. If there was a sudden loss of confidence in BitCoin (or more realistically, people lost confidence in other people’s confidence in BitCoin), such hyperinflation would spread and escalate with the speed of light with nothing to stop it. This kind of volatility might be interesting for speculative investment purposes but not incredibly useful as currency.

Then again, it’s entirely possible that we will be proven wrong.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#228
Disclaimer right up front: I personally doubt that Bitcoin will be a long-term success. I fall into the camp of people who believe it is not a mature enough technology, unproven despite the hype. It is much too volatile to be any good other than as a risky investment, though if you time it right, you could stand to make a fair profit at the moment.

What I do think is very interesting about Bitcoin is that it is a harbinger of things to come. It won't replace greenbacks anytime soon, but I think it's an indicator of where the world is heading.

I believe the global and historical trends we are seeing right now is away from traditional authorities acting as monoliths, in favor of empowered individuals. We are most likely at the very beginning of the trend - I doubt anyone reading this board in 2013 will be alive to see the transformation completed. But we will be alive to see some very interesting changes. Generally speaking, all centralized authorities, be they monetary, political, technological, etc. are fracturing in favor of empowered individual actors. That poses challenges as well as opportunities.

For example: consider a technology like Square coupled with a store of value such as Bitcoin. (In this example, the terms "Square" and "Bitcoin" are just placeholder values for mechanisms and tools). Oversimplifying greatly, if we take these technologies to their logical extreme, we have the tools for an individual to completely bypass banks and traditional governments. You have some goods that I want, I have some Bitcoins, we do a point-to-point transfer; you get the money, I get the donut, end of transaction. Truly savvy users in this system will have their own way of transmitting the money from themselves to the merchant. I'll choose to trust someone like Square to do it safely and securely for a nominal fee.

Whether or not you agree with the mechanics of how this happens isn't really the point. The point is to show that we are heading towards a future where two individuals can transact freely without a middleman "getting in the way." For the purposes of this discussion, "getting in the way" means limiting the freedoms of those individuals to transact as they please.

Of course, there are problems with this. If there are no rules, inevitably someone will game the system or take advantage of someone else. That'll be unpopular, and so people will seek to band together to transact in a network of trust. The idea of a network of trust is important today, it's value will only increase over time. I can't remember the exact term, but I read a wonderful book some years ago called "Anarchy, State and Utopia" which dealt with the philosophy around these types of issues (it's a pretty academic book, but here's a link in you'd like to see - http://amzn.to/18883MU - and yes, that's a kickback link).

Boiling it down, the main argument I took away from that book was that, even in a world where there are no "governments" as we're used to thinking about them, we'll never achieve true 100% freedom because there'll always be those who are stronger who take advantage of those weaker than themselves. For this reason, people join together and form mini-states. Within those mini-states and associations, rules will exist that people choose to live by, limiting individual freedom to provide security.

I think people are right to be excited about Bitcoin, but I'd be cautious about heralding any brave new world within the next 25 to 50 years.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#229

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not my reading; I believe what he is getting at (similarly brought up in Graeber's book) is that when the government controls a large enough share of the economy, the sine qua non of "money" is that you can pay taxes with it. That doesn't require anything about the historical origins of money.

I should probably read Graeber's book, though based on what I see here I might find it a bit exhausting. I hear this argument a lot in discussions about bitcoins, and I ask, but have not yet received, a good explanation. Let me ask you if you can summarize the reasoning for why paying taxes in a currency helps a currency? It seems very obvious that the opposite is true -- if you don't have to pay taxes by working in…

The author of the Article summons Graeber in an abysmal way. In 'Debt' Graeber proposes two main ideas, that the State is by no means necessary to have a great economy (he is an anarchist, with small 'a'), and that our current debt-based monetary system is a mess. Bitcoin is debt-free because no one needs to take loans or create bonds since bitcoins are mined. I think Graeber would be (is?) fascinated by them.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#230
A while back I read about half of Graeber's book. He does argue strongly that money arises from debt, not barter. He does not argue that it must come from the government, and in fact gives numerous examples of money arising organically from private debt relationships. That's a major point of his book.
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