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A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#191

Post by mindstab »

stevewilhelm wrote: post #178
mindstab wrote: post #149

Earlier quoted context omitted.

they can sure set them, and then no one would use them. do you not understand money? what are you, the owner of 100btc going to do: a) buy $100usd worth of goods at ebay directly b) cash out at a proper exchange for $100,000usd, then buy $100usb worth of goods on ebay and have $99,900usd left over? or cash out ONE btc for $1000usd, buy $100usd of goods and have $900 usd left over AND 99btc? How do you expect any even…

In any financial exchange, both parties, the buyer and seller, need to come to agreement on a price. Given the fact that current BTC to USD exchange volume is fairly small, it wouldn't take that many large global goods and service providers pegging their BTC/USD exchange rate to cause the speculation market to collapse. Those that recently bought their Bitcoins at $900 would sell below the current high price to reali…

what gain?

you are proposing taking for example a $100usb product and selling it for 100btc... which at current market value is the equivalent of over pricing it to $100,000usd. Who would buy that when they could pay $100usd for it instead or convert 1btc and functionally pay 0.1btc for it instead of 100btc. What global goods providers would mark up their wares 1000x and who in their right mind would spend anything on that.

Sure, if BTC was worth > $1usd and you were selling them at 1:1 everyone would leap to do that because now they are GAINING by spending their BTC with you.

But your proposal means they loose 1000%. I don't understand what motivates this switch over.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#192

Post by dinkumthinkum »

GhotiFish wrote: post #127
brador wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because Bitcoins are relatively easy to buy and very difficult to cash out into real currency. Once enough people see how hard it is to liquidate their Bitcoins back to USD the realization will follow.

?? Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them. It's just happening now because some people want into this environment.

I think these kinds of views are what make the bitcoin community seem ridiculous ... It's just constant downplaying of actual upplaying of conspiracy like goldbugs do and it just seems hard for serious and educated people to take seriously.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#193

Post by Peaker »

hacknat wrote: post #23
makerops wrote: post #5

"After all, no bank or bitcoin-emitter can be as public-minded as a government, and no private power can raise taxes or pass laws to unwind monetary excesses." I am not an expert by any stretch of the imagination, but this seems like a big point in the authors argument. Isn't the removal of this flaw baked into bitcoin by it's nature? " Besides, if bitcoin ever really started to take off, governments would either ban…

Isn't the removal of this flaw baked into bitcoin by it's nature? No, it's not. Bitcoin isn't backed by any political will of any kind. It is a sheer market. That is the author's main point. That since it is money not backed by the, hopefully, benevolent will of a state it will be subject to the whims of market makers or the panic of the crowd. I think the author of the article is quite correct in making this point.…

> Bitcoin has already failed as a currency. It is subject to incredible moodiness and instability, which are the characteristics of a very poor currency indeed

Bitcoin has to climb up to a stable value, once.

The idea is that it will be stable once it did.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#194

Post by saraid216 »

shubb wrote: post #134
elwin wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Please explain how a bitcoin blockchain record can testify in court that a copy of a document is authentic. Hint, you're infront of a jury, you have a blockchain hash, and opposing council has a notary public with 40 years of experience, both copies of the document differ, the original cannot be found. Hers has an official looking seal, you have some random numbers. Here's an imaginary possibility. A hundred and fi…

I think in practice, the first time someone needed to do this, a bunch of high grade academic cryptographers would acts as expert witnesses pro-bono. From there, it would be like a hacking case - an expert explains the issue to the jury, who take a decision. Assuming it is technically sound, bitchain certification would win. Subsequent cases would be able to use the precedent, and win with less interesting experts.

These comments are actually making me think of this case:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Howland_will_forgery_trial

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#195

Post by intenex »

"They will fail, because money that is not issued by governments is always doomed to failure. Money is inevitably a tool of the state."

How about gold? Bitcoin can just as easily be seen as a limited commodity as as currency. It's even mined :).

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#196

Post by enraged_camel »

sergiosgc wrote: post #81
snowwrestler wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, and it failed as a currency.

Did it? Or was it Bretton-Woods that failed? If I remember my History, Nixon decoupled the USD from gold to regain the ability to devalue the dollar, as a tool for dealing with the huge debt accrued during the Vietnam war. It wasn't a gold-currency world, it was a world of gold-backed US dollar. It makes a huge difference. While the advantages of being a reserve currency superceded the disadvantages of not having mon…

>>Did it? Or was it Bretton-Woods that failed? If I remember my History, Nixon decoupled the USD from gold to regain the ability to devalue the dollar, as a tool for dealing with the huge debt accrued during the Vietnam war.

The point is that it failed as a currency as soon as it lost the government's backing.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#197

Post by thret »

coldtea wrote: post #176
GhotiFish wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

?? Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them. It's just happening now because some people want into this environment.

> Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them Yes, unless you want to, you know, buy something...

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Trade

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#198

Post by dinkumthinkum »

kdeforche wrote: post #126
brador wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because Bitcoins are relatively easy to buy and very difficult to cash out into real currency. Once enough people see how hard it is to liquidate their Bitcoins back to USD the realization will follow.

Sounds like nonsense to me: if you buy 1 BTC from me, then at the same time I've sold 1 BTC? That makes it by definition as equally hard (or easy) to buy as to sell?

Are you all really having trouble understanding how instability in currency makes it difficult to trade in a currency?

Also there is some basic lapse in logic here. Just because a WoW nerd can trace the currency on a technical level, does not mean it is "easy."

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#199

Post by dinkumthinkum »

mindstab wrote: post #149
stevewilhelm wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

eBay, Amazon, and IRS don't need Bitcoins, they can set any exchange rate they want. If enough goods and service providers followed suit, current speculators would have to take a hilarious loss to buy anything.

they can sure set them, and then no one would use them. do you not understand money? what are you, the owner of 100btc going to do: a) buy $100usd worth of goods at ebay directly b) cash out at a proper exchange for $100,000usd, then buy $100usb worth of goods on ebay and have $99,900usd left over? or cash out ONE btc for $1000usd, buy $100usd of goods and have $900 usd left over AND 99btc? How do you expect any even…

Because Internet. Because disruption.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#200

Post by aryastark »

fat0wl wrote: post #84
jamestnz wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Something that might be considered an "intrinsic" value of bitcoin is its ability to instantly and securely transfer wealth across large distances at zero or near-zero cost. This is an feature not present in some of the incumbent currencies and store-of-value assets. For example, physically shipping hundreds of kilograms of gold (or physical, folding USD) is a costly exercise fraught with security risks, and the risk…

This intrinsic value can be mirrored by any cryptocurrency or even just a parallel network of Bitcoin. It is no justification for $1000/coin the way overzealous BTC investors claim.

$1000, for 1/12000000th the total current supply of bitcoins in existence? Sounds like a deal to me. The same fraction of USD is $100,000. There are 313 million people in the US. These are the majority of people using the dollar. There are 1.35 billion in China and another 1.2 billion in India. The former has already started using bitcoin. But only just barely. The market for bitcoin is enormous.

Now let me ask you: do you really feel a global currency is worth less than $12 billion USD? The market cap for Facebook is $113 billion. Call me crazy, but I think there is more long term value in a digital currency with the properties of Bitcoin than a social network.

In order for bitcoin to be useful, it's going to have to grow. If it grows fast (network effects) then you'll get instability. I don't think there is a solution to this unique problem. The fiat solution of printing more money doesn't apply here. There has never been a sudden rush to USD like there is to bitcoins. If you can even call a few billion dollars a "rush". If bitcoin is to be used, then it's going to see $1000/coin and beyond.

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