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How traffic actually works

jliszka.github.io

141–150 of 186 posts

Re: How traffic actually works

#141
post #133
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not sure who actually thought that "smoothing the wave" did make you actually go faster though, since a moment's thought shows that "going faster" would necessarily involve going through the bumper of the car in front of you. I think it's about a "laminar" traffic flow being a lot less annoying and dangerous to drive in, if you are going to go slow. I think he fell down on his own argument when he claims that doi…

>I'm not sure who actually thought that "smoothing the wave" did make you actually go faster though, Probably all the people that passed around the critiqued link and suggested that it gives a way to improve traffic flow?

The gist I get from the link is that the act of "smoothing the wave" will not benefit the one who performs the act, but it benefits the drivers behind the lane. You can't fix the traffic jam in front of you, but you can do your part to prevent one from forming behind you.

And that's why people pass around the link.

Re: How traffic actually works

#142
Everyone has their own pet theory of how people should behave in traffic. The problem isn't even that most of them are wrong -- most of them are "correct" in the sense that, if everyone behaved in this way, traffic jams would be less common and have shorter durations.

The problem is that you don't know which theories other drivers have, so you don't know how they will react to different situations. If you don't know how other drivers will react, you need to drive conservatively -- which usually means slowing down.

Take a construction merge down to a single lane. It might be the case that it's best to use both lanes up to the merge, so that the traffic jam takes up less space. It might be the case that it's best to merge as soon as you figure out what's going on, to provide more time for the merge negotiation and reduce the risk of accidents at the merge point.

In reality, it doesn't matter either way. If I try to use both lanes, I don't know that I'll be allowed to merge at the lane closure. If I merge early, I don't know if someone is going to use the now-unoccupied lane to zoom up and cut someone off, making both lanes slower and more accident-prone. I can't do either one and confidently say that I've made the correct choice, because I don't know how other drivers will react. What I do is just pick one, and slow down when something unexpected happens.

This article also generalizes some things incorrectly (it seems based mainly on German data, presumably because they have better infrastructure for measuring such). For example, I live in the northeastern U.S. We are notoriously bad drivers up here, even among other east coasters. Here, a two-second following distance at 65MPH is almost unheard of -- actually, a two-second front-to-rear distance probably qualifies as a "large space", as some people here seem to think such a space can fit multiple vehicles. That's about 100ft or 30m, so I suppose it technically can, but it is not safe.

I can react to this either by leaving a very large space (5-6 seconds seems sufficiently large that people get impatient and leave before it fills up) or by leaving a small space (.75-1.25 seconds is the largest I can leave and have a good chance of nobody trying to use it). The former is much safer, so that's what I do.

The key is that, over a period of about two minutes, I need to maintain this following distance relative to the same vehicle. Usually this is fine: at most three cars tend to use that space at a time, and if anything they're more likely to tailgate the vehicle I'm following than to stay back near me. Occasionally I need to slow down in a situation where many vehicles fill that space, or someone moves in and immediately slows down. This is the exception, rather than the rule.

Yes, I know this behavior can cause traffic jams under certain conditions and with certain other drivers -- but so could the alternative, under other conditions. Given the choice between two bad options, I optimize for my personal safety.

Re: How traffic actually works

#143
post #73

I thought the whole point of these "fixed traffic jam" articles was to make your undoubtedly terrible commute go faster by giving you something to do, or at the very least providing a false sense of control over a situation (like a superstition). The science behind traffic is completely arbitrary and nonsensical no matter how many graphs or numbers you put behind it. There are simply too many different drivers out th…

I think the idea is to give it a treatment analgous to how statistical mechanics works for properties of gas, for example. True, we can't easily say what individual atoms/molecules might do, but we can say something about the gas as an ensemble. It's true that free will may make drivers tougher to predict than individual molecules. But molecules obey quantum mechanics and one could conceivibly construct probability d…

I get that we want it to be consistent but having driven the same roads for years, in the same times of day, in varying but similar weather patterns the driving is completely sporadic so no amount of normalization well give you anything more than a crapshoot on any given day other than "it will probably take me anywhere from 20 to 50 minutes." Statistical analysis is great for many things but understanding the "now" of a traffic pattern is not one of them.

Re: How traffic actually works

#144
post #73

I thought the whole point of these "fixed traffic jam" articles was to make your undoubtedly terrible commute go faster by giving you something to do, or at the very least providing a false sense of control over a situation (like a superstition). The science behind traffic is completely arbitrary and nonsensical no matter how many graphs or numbers you put behind it. There are simply too many different drivers out th…

I think the idea is to give it a treatment analgous to how statistical mechanics works for properties of gas, for example. True, we can't easily say what individual atoms/molecules might do, but we can say something about the gas as an ensemble. It's true that free will may make drivers tougher to predict than individual molecules. But molecules obey quantum mechanics and one could conceivibly construct probability d…

[deleted]

Re: How traffic actually works

#145
Has anyone tried to use genetic algorithms with traffic simulations to try to determine if there's a better way to manage traffic, especially in regards to the design of merge lanes, on/off ramps, etc?

I've thought for a long time that it would be fascinating to build a complex traffic simulator that could be used by people designing freeways, neighbors, shopping malls, etc to plan for traffic. Right now those designs are just based on best guesses (or terrible guesses) by architects and not simulations.

Re: How traffic actually works

#146
post #118

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm sorry for the harsh critique. I think new radical ideas are great and people should question everything that's out there. But this way was not thought out well enough IMO. I hope you keep it up and maybe have a follow up post where you can fix some of the flaws. Some of your ideas are correct and noble. But always remember to take into account the real world driver and his/her behavioral flaws. Few thoughts: Inte…

Really appreciate the feedback, comes with the territory :) I added an update to the article looking at what happens when you vary the average car length (corresponding to the % of trucks on the road), fwiw.

I just read some of your older blog posts. They're close to my research and well written and very informative. Keep up the good work!

Cheers

Re: How traffic actually works

#147
post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Nobody is forcing you to stay in the congested lane. It was your choice and you have no reason to think everyone else has to do the same. If it's a legal lane, then drive in it.

Its a legal lane to no where. By using it you're then relying on the good graces of one of those chumps you just passed. They don't need to let you back in. They're in the legal lane to somewhere, you just got no where really quickly.

You don't have to let me in. I am sure someone in front of you will. Then you have the right to throw a little hissy-fit because of having to live with the repercussions of your poor life decisions.

Re: How traffic actually works

#148
Smooth flow doesn't get you there any faster than highly variant turbulent flow. This is obvious. Now given that there will be little difference in overall throughput would you rather a) have a relaxing smooth drive or b) a stressful highly variant aggressive drive? The answer should be a, because the increased of risk of a fatal crash vs. the miniscule return of a few car lengths is not worth the effort you put in.

You can verify this yourself. Drive as smooth as possible. Smoothly accelerate and decelerate. Leave large gaps. Try to use both your accelerator and brakes as little as possible. Now observe aggressive drivers and memorize their car's make, model and license plate. Observe the amount of risk and effort they undertake to get ahead. Then observe them only getting about 5-10 car lengths for their trouble. Finally observe them stopped behind you two traffic lights down.

Laminar flow = turbulent flow, but laminar is so much better.

This is besides the fact that laminar flow reduces traffic waves, reducing the variance for all those behind you, leading to a reduced risk of death and injury for everyone in your lane. My driving style has probably saved a life, or two.

Re: How traffic actually works

#149
post #12
post #2

That was the clearest explanation of traffic I've come across. I'm inclined to buy into it (often it seems no one knows what they're talking about when it comes to traffic). It also runs counter to what is commonly said about traffic jams. Most people focus on restoring smooth flow by doing things such as driving really slow to create space in front of you. This guy makes the case that "flow" is not really the import…

This is the one thing that really pisses me off. It gets worse when the lane that you are merging into has a line of cars going back almost a kilometer. Doing this is like saying "Hey you idiots, look how smart I am" to everyone waiting for their way in the right lane.

If HelloMcFly originates from the "open lane", I am indifferent to where he decides to merge into the "right lane", as long as he doesn't force anyone to unnecessary slam their brake.

What really piss me off are drivers who move from the "right lane" into the "open lane", and then merge back after cutting perhaps 5, 6 cars.

Re: How traffic actually works

#150
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's fine if you can safely merge into the exit lane without slowing down traffic in the non-exit lane. Here's when it's not OK: cars in the exit lane are traveling at 2mph. You drive up next to the line, slow down from 55mph to 2mph and wait with your blinker on for someone to let you in. Now you've slowed a second 55mph lane down to 2mph, blocking thru traffic and creating a dangerous stoppage in the non-exit lan…

I see this all the time in Massachusetts - Route 2 West to Route 95 North, about a mile from my home. At rush hour there are always enough jerks playing the "merge at the last minute" game that only the left lane is still moving significantly, and sometimes not even then. Every once in a while there's an accident because people who were unaware of this "congest all the lanes" behavior didn't see a blocked left lane s…

Perhaps a more advanced camera technology that detects asshole driving behavior instead of speeding? Rich dudes pay to get ahead. Increased revenue for the police department. Improved traffic. Win-win for everyone.
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