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The Deal That Makes No Sense

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Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#31

Post by maaaats »

shadowmint wrote: post #21

I don't agree with all the things in this article, but there certainly rings a bell of truth in there somewhere. A 5.44 billion EURO transaction to acquire a company that is already in a strategic partnership with you and working exclusively with your platform doesn't make sense. My vote also goes for Nokia being financially in trouble, and M$ have their hand forced by the fear of a collapse in Nokia would gut the di…

The article is full of errors and unbacked claims.

> ... adding on a mobile phone business that Microsoft probably should abandon ...

Why should it be abandoned? Just because the author isn't a fan of WP8?

> have argued that Stephen Elop made a massive strategic error by choosing Windows Phone over Android; ... It would have been to Nokia’s benefit to have everyone running Android, including themselves.

Not necessarily true. There's only one manufacturer making money on Android at the moment, Samsung. When Elop got aboard, Nokia was already waaay behind. It's not like he drove them down, he merely tried saving them. Choosing Android might have gone better, but probably not. At least it was better going for WP than sticking to their own, dying systems.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#33

Post by akandiah »

shadowmint wrote: post #21

I don't agree with all the things in this article, but there certainly rings a bell of truth in there somewhere. A 5.44 billion EURO transaction to acquire a company that is already in a strategic partnership with you and working exclusively with your platform doesn't make sense. My vote also goes for Nokia being financially in trouble, and M$ have their hand forced by the fear of a collapse in Nokia would gut the di…

>My vote also goes for Nokia being financially in trouble, and M$ have their hand forced by the fear of a collapse in Nokia would gut the distribution channels for all the flagship windows phone models.

I believe M$ and Nokia made a strategic agreement around 12 months ago that guaranteed that if anyone were to purchase Nokia, it would be Microsoft. The writing has been on the wall since then. I don't know why people are surprised by this move.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#34

Post by JonoW »

I'm not sure why so many are predicting WPs death - it's actually doing pretty well outside the US. Here in the UK it's now just under 10%. Pundits are far too US orientated.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#35

Post by venomsnake »

telephonetemp wrote: post #17
polemic wrote: post #11

> "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. The war is over, and iOS and Android won." That's remarkably short-sighted. The first iPhone was released only 6 years ago, Android 5 years ago. You really think that Microsoft - a company with nearly infinite runway, an enormous R&D investment and serious history - is going to down tools after a few years of frustration? Not likely. The prize is too big and con…

I agree. I don't see why this isn't like saying > "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon the Xbox. The war is over, and Sony and Nintendo won." a decade or so ago.

Except you have tabula rasa in console business every few years so you could jump anytime if you have the money. And games as entertainment products rarely have legs longer than a generation - we the PC master race are spoiled with decade long backwards compatibility but in the console world it is rarely so.

And entertainment business (because the console is just a hardware dongle) is different beast.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#36

Post by jeswin »

The tragedy in the deal, as I hinted at earlier, is that I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone.

According to the author, MS should abandon the fastest growing class of computing devices. What kind of a strategy is that?!

Meanwhile, Windows Phone sales are up 77% YoY.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#37

Post by 300bps »

shangaslammi wrote: post #20
polemic wrote: post #11

> "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. The war is over, and iOS and Android won." That's remarkably short-sighted. The first iPhone was released only 6 years ago, Android 5 years ago. You really think that Microsoft - a company with nearly infinite runway, an enormous R&D investment and serious history - is going to down tools after a few years of frustration? Not likely. The prize is too big and con…

Yes, but the effect of ecosystem lock-down is huge compared to 5-6 years ago. It's not about who makes the best phones or phone-OS anymore. People are invested in their respective app ecosystems and all their photos, contacts, documents etc. are in Apple's or Google's cloud. I'm not saying that Microsoft doesn't have a chance at all but I think the odds are against Windows phones ever reaching a significant market sh…

IPhone 3G, iPhone 4, iPhone 4S, Lumia 928. Those are my last four smart phones.

I didn't feel locked in at all to the "app ecosystem". Honestly web and email were paramount and everything else is secondary. At some point in the future I believe native apps will be passe in favor of a complete move to web applications making the underlying platform completely personal preference.

...oh.and at one time I was locked into my Palm Pilot. After that my Blackberry. Tell Apple to look at Palm or RIM if they want to know how long being the popular phone on the market lasts.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#38

Post by rmk2 »

jeswin wrote: post #36

The tragedy in the deal, as I hinted at earlier, is that I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. According to the author, MS should abandon the fastest growing class of computing devices. What kind of a strategy is that?! Meanwhile, Windows Phone sales are up 77% YoY.

Growing without market-share tells us comparatively little.

And to be the person for once that posts the obligatory xkcd comic: http://xkcd.com/1102/

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#39

Post by 300bps »

Samuel_Michon wrote: post #28
7952 wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are getting to a point where the power of the device is less of a distinguishing factor. Lots of people are satisfied with the hardware of the previous generation Iphone or lower spec'd Android Phones. If hardware prices continue to drop the feature phone market (which Nokia dominates) could easily turn into a low end smart phone market. The Windows Phone OS could actually be a good choice for this. This is also u…

I don’t understand that reasoning. Why would a phone maker choose Windows Phone over Android? – Android is cheaper than Windows Phone (many phone makers pay Microsoft to be able to use patents used in Android, but even then, Android is cheaper than Windows Phone) – Android has lower system requirements than Windows Phone – Android has a thriving app market, Windows Phone doesn’t Windows Phone low-end phones will only…

Just for a funny anecdote, an Android user at.my work asked me what virus scanning software I used on my Windows Phone 8. I laughed because I thought he was making fun of Windows Phone. Turned out he was serious - his Galaxy had gotten two different viruses and he was running virus scan on it. I told him that ironically Microsoft's market share wasn't high enough for malware authors to target.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#40

Post by bad_user »

bodyfour wrote: post #29
polemic wrote: post #11

> "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. The war is over, and iOS and Android won." That's remarkably short-sighted. The first iPhone was released only 6 years ago, Android 5 years ago. You really think that Microsoft - a company with nearly infinite runway, an enormous R&D investment and serious history - is going to down tools after a few years of frustration? Not likely. The prize is too big and con…

Exactly. Plus it's a prize Microsoft probably feels it can't afford to lose. If Android magically evaporated tomorrow Google would be just fine -- the core of their business (ad sales) doesn't fundamentally require that they control the mobile platform, although it certainly makes things easier. Microsoft, on the other hand, had for decades been the platform company. They've historically tried to grow by pushing out…

> If Android magically evaporated tomorrow Google would be just fine -- the core of their business (ad sales) doesn't fundamentally require that they control the mobile platform

I do not agree. They don't necessarily need to control the mobile platform, but they do need access to the distribution channels.

Witness how Apple replaced Google Maps with their own solution, even before their solution was good enough, as if they couldn't wait to get rid of GMaps. At some point not so long ago, they also threatened to replace Google's search engine with Bing by default. In 2009 Google Voice was also rejected from iTunes because it was "duplicating existing functionality".

Google is basically playing Microsoft's own game from the nineties - controlling the platform makes them a valuable distribution channel, ensuring not only their survival, but also giving them leverage in expanding to new markets.

Google is bigger and much more dangerous today because of Android, which IMHO is vital for them going forward.

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