The Deal That Makes No Sense • Hacker News Board

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#11

Post by polemic » Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 9:50 AM UTC

> "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. The war is over, and iOS and Android won."

That's remarkably short-sighted. The first iPhone was released only 6 years ago, Android 5 years ago. You really think that Microsoft - a company with nearly infinite runway, an enormous R&D investment and serious history - is going to down tools after a few years of frustration? Not likely.

The prize is too big and consumers too fickle to just give up.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#12

Post by hannibal5 » Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 9:51 AM UTC

beloch wrote: post #5

The notion that Nokia was about to jump-ship or simply go under is certainly plausible. Another possibility is that MS wanted to start using Nokia's resources for their other hardware projects and it was going to be awkward slicing off teams from Nokia and having them start working under a MS department. MS might not be selling as much hardware as Apple, but their XBox line is the current king of consoles. With a new…

I think Microsoft sees Smartphones as strategic must have for long term.

MS saw that Nokia is the only player in the Windows market and Samsung is never going to be big on MS. They just bought the hardware and are making Windows phones into closed platform like iPhone is.

I don't think that Samsung and others are going to continue making windows phones after MS bought Nokia.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#13

Post by lotsofcows » Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 9:56 AM UTC

Elop's job was to drive to the price. Microsoft wanted, and now has, the IP.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#14

Post by Steko » Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 10:02 AM UTC

polemic wrote: post #11

> "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. The war is over, and iOS and Android won." That's remarkably short-sighted. The first iPhone was released only 6 years ago, Android 5 years ago. You really think that Microsoft - a company with nearly infinite runway, an enormous R&D investment and serious history - is going to down tools after a few years of frustration? Not likely. The prize is too big and con…

Agreed. Phones aside, the viability of Chromebooks goes a long way to showing how open the OS market is compared to the desktop market a decade or two ago.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#15

Post by JulianMorrison » Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 10:03 AM UTC

Microsoft wanted an ecosystem of competing handset makers like Android, where they could just make the OS and rake in the money; they have realized they aren't going to get it, and the one handset maker who took the sucker bet was dying fast. So (I predict) they have decided to switch to the XBox model, where the hardware is in-house, subsidized, and used to gain market share.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#16

Post by NZ_Matt » Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 10:10 AM UTC

kennethh wrote: post #7

Elop must have the record in destroying a company. In 5 years a company went from being market leader with something like 90% of the smartphone market to almost bankrupt. I do not think something like this have ever happened this fast.

There's an argument that Nokia wouldn't have been stable now if Elop never took the job. It would have failed in Finland instead of now potentially failing in Redmond.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#17

Post by telephonetemp » Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 10:15 AM UTC

polemic wrote: post #11

> "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. The war is over, and iOS and Android won." That's remarkably short-sighted. The first iPhone was released only 6 years ago, Android 5 years ago. You really think that Microsoft - a company with nearly infinite runway, an enormous R&D investment and serious history - is going to down tools after a few years of frustration? Not likely. The prize is too big and con…

I agree. I don't see why this isn't like saying

> "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon the Xbox. The war is over, and Sony and Nintendo won."

a decade or so ago.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#18

Post by arethuza » Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 10:16 AM UTC

polemic wrote: post #11

> "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. The war is over, and iOS and Android won." That's remarkably short-sighted. The first iPhone was released only 6 years ago, Android 5 years ago. You really think that Microsoft - a company with nearly infinite runway, an enormous R&D investment and serious history - is going to down tools after a few years of frustration? Not likely. The prize is too big and con…

For some reason your argument reminds me of DEC and the PC market - given their position in the early 1980s they should have been in a great position to compete, but they were always on the back foot and constantly playing catch up with the actual market leaders (including, of course, Microsoft).

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#19

Post by lazyjones » Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 10:17 AM UTC

Microsoft is probably aiming to become a patent troll in the long run due to their lack of innovation. They already have many patents they can extort future innovators with, so picking up Nokia's (reported to be worth $6b) makes sense.

Re: The Deal That Makes No Sense

#20

Post by shangaslammi » Tue, Sep 03, 2013, 10:18 AM UTC

polemic wrote: post #11

> "...I think Microsoft ought to abandon Windows Phone. The war is over, and iOS and Android won." That's remarkably short-sighted. The first iPhone was released only 6 years ago, Android 5 years ago. You really think that Microsoft - a company with nearly infinite runway, an enormous R&D investment and serious history - is going to down tools after a few years of frustration? Not likely. The prize is too big and con…

Yes, but the effect of ecosystem lock-down is huge compared to 5-6 years ago. It's not about who makes the best phones or phone-OS anymore. People are invested in their respective app ecosystems and all their photos, contacts, documents etc. are in Apple's or Google's cloud.

I'm not saying that Microsoft doesn't have a chance at all but I think the odds are against Windows phones ever reaching a significant market share no matter how much capital and R&D they stack behind it.