Developers are the autoworkers of our generation • Hacker News Board

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#151

Post by cturner » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 7:21 PM UTC

nohuck13 wrote: post #7

Hold on a minute. You can't discuss labor markets without discussing productivity. In the heyday of the automotive industry, the best auto worker in the world produced about the same output as the average auto worker. Maybe they messed up less, but being a genius autoworker didn't let you tower head and shoulders above the competition, because car factories are designed with auto workers as interchangeable parts. We'…

     In the heyday of the automotive industry, the best
     auto worker in the world produced about the same
     output as the average auto worker

Agree. Also, there's a strong trade union theme to the history of autoworkers which doesn't really map to the developer experience. Something related though - what about the toolsmiths who built the factory processes and machines? I'd guess that with those guys there'd have been a big gap in productivity, and there'd have been a strong collaboration/teamwork angle and theme of iteration. They would have been scarce - maybe they still are.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#152

Post by return0 » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 7:26 PM UTC

vectorpush wrote: post #139

luu wrote: post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? I don't know about you, but I've sacrificed an incalculable amount of positive social interaction sitting in front of these damned screens. My programming skills weren't spontaneously conferred upon me, as a kid I'd spend weeks at time building foolishly impossible-to-complete applications that I'd eventually leave to rot as I hopped onto th…

> but I've sacrificed an incalculable amount of positive social interaction sitting in front of these damned screens

Sorry to call you out on that, but that is a tiny sacrifice to make compared to the past (which involved sweat, blood, immigration, exploitation to name a few). Even calling it a sacrifice is kind of sacrilege. Plus, you most probably did a lot of social interaction on your IM.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#153

Post by iyulaev » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 7:31 PM UTC

gnaritas wrote: post #51

luu wrote: post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

> I'm told that CS enrollments are now at record highs Given the high dropout rate of anyone attempting to learn programming, I don't think enrollment rate is good metric. > What's the barrier to entry that's keeping us from being flooded with supply? Programming is hard; really f'ing hard, for most people because it requires critical thinking continually and learning continually.

To give some evidence to the parent, look at a chart of STEM graduates vs liberal arts, comparing 1985 to 2009 [1]. Across the board we've pushed a wider range of people into college. Nevertheless, in absolute terms the number of graduates has dropped in CS, Math, and sciences, while it has skyrocketed for arts, communications, and psychology. What we've found is that there just aren't very many scientists and engineers on the margin. In other words, there appear to be relatively few "potential" engineers that just need a nudge towards engineering. This seems especially true when you consider that across this time period (1985 - 2009), the career prospects for STEM graduates have been very good. Even this incentive doesn't seem to push any marginal college students towards these fields.

My takeaway is that there isn't a huge pool of potential programmers that just need a nudge towards programming. If offering huge salaries and making higher education a social requirement doesn't increase the number of people who chose the engineering career path, what does?

[1] http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2011/11/col...

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#154

Post by [deleted] » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 7:40 PM UTC

return0 wrote: post #152

vectorpush wrote: post #139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? I don't know about you, but I've sacrificed an incalculable amount of positive social interaction sitting in front of these damned screens. My programming skills weren't spontaneously conferred upon me, as a kid I'd spend weeks at time building foolishly impossible-to-complete applications that I'd eventually leave to rot as I hopped onto th…

> but I've sacrificed an incalculable amount of positive social interaction sitting in front of these damned screens Sorry to call you out on that, but that is a tiny sacrifice to make compared to the past (which involved sweat, blood, immigration, exploitation to name a few). Even calling it a sacrifice is kind of sacrilege. Plus, you most probably did a lot of social interaction on your IM.

[deleted]

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#155

Post by anonymousDan » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 7:51 PM UTC

skyebook wrote: post #12

One comment on the post goes after the analogy not being fully sound because unions helped to prop up wages. Whatever you think about unions, I'll be sort of curious to see if some segment of developer jobs do unionize ever. I get the sense that the rugged individualism that seems to be far more prevalent in developer/engineer/hacker sort of circles would be less for it; what about h1b workers who seem to feature quo…

Instead of unions, I'd much prefer if there was an organized push by developers to force governments outside of California to make it illegal for companies to claim they own the rights to every idea an employee has. In the UK it seems to be standard practice to do this, even when the employee comes up with an idea on their own time and using their own resources that's not directly related to the company's line of business.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#156

Post by obstacle1 » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 7:55 PM UTC

rmk2 wrote: post #54

gnaritas wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I'm told that CS enrollments are now at record highs Given the high dropout rate of anyone attempting to learn programming, I don't think enrollment rate is good metric. > What's the barrier to entry that's keeping us from being flooded with supply? Programming is hard; really f'ing hard, for most people because it requires critical thinking continually and learning continually.

Stop patting yourself on the back. Seriously . Because obviously, no other job requires critical thinking and learning continually . These are "skills" that are in no way related to programming, and do not explain an inclination towards CS rather than any other science or the myriad of other academic disciplines. And even outside academia, not every job is just that of the "sheeple" who "mindlessly" "slug away" in th…

What's your problem with his first one-line remark? Have you not looked at attrition rates for CS programs across North America? Missed all the professorial "why are all our students dropping/flunking out" laments?

We've seen the CS enrollment boom cycle repeat at least twice now. Graduating class sizes remain relatively constant while attrition rates skyrocket. Enrollment is pretty objectively a terrible measure of future software engineer/developer supply.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#157

Post by potatolicious » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 8:01 PM UTC

hershel wrote: post #133

potatolicious wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That barrier is dropping. Years ago becoming a developer meant going back to school for another 4-year degree. Expensive, time-consuming, and necessary for most employers to take you seriously. You could self-train, but having seen the insides of recruitment processes at most companies... that's a laughable thought. For all the wankery that comes out of our mouths about meritocracies, the vast majority of software co…

>> The level of sacrifice required is dropping, and it's dropping like a rock. What have changed , just ruby on rails type frameworks , or something beyond ?

Employers. It was never that difficult to become a novice developer, but convincing anyone to hire you was the hard part. No CS degree (or math, or engineering) was a death sentence to any resume at the vast majority of companies.

The new model is to skip the CS fundamentals and instead crash-course you on frameworks and languages that are being used in-industry, then toss you into the deep end. If you float, you've now got the "experience" part of the dreaded "experienced required" part of any job posting.

The hard part was getting employers to buy into the scheme. "We've got this guy who has next to no idea about algorithms and data structures, but will do fine as a low-level Rails grunt" didn't sound very attractive before, but considering how hard engineering hiring is right now, some companies are biting.

I for one am intrigued at the inversion of priorities and curious to see how this will play out. Up until now our educational process has been to fill your head full of theory and leave the practical application up to your own time. This has meant truckloads of CS graduates who aren't actually capable of performing real-life engineering. The new scheme is to get you working first and foremost, and assume that the fundamentals and theory you missed out on will be filled over time. As someone who never got their CS degree to begin with, I'm rather partial to the latter approach.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#158

Post by smk11 » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 8:03 PM UTC

illumen wrote: post #107

smk11 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Most of the software getting written for business today is highly specialized. Highly specialized software = no out of the box solution This is one part of the developer community that doesn't get publicized as much. The Startup web companies are not the only place where developers work, but they are the most competitive. I work for an Assessor's office as a developer, and we develop our management information syst…

The uncle of a company leader (CEO owner etc) owns a software company. Through a complex deal involving government grants, and a development deal with another company, the software if developed through them actually makes them money to build. Three of the developers are hired to the other company as consultants for a while, so they can explain how it all works. The rest of the developers are let go. Finally the origi…

Yeah, that sounds plausible, but would have many draw backs that are big enough, I think, to prevent it from happening where I work. For example, needing a code change last minute before role close to be able to force parcels through role before the normal close date, etc. Not to mention the red tape that would prevent the department from being able to do that.

Also, in this scenario, I would hate to be one of the employees who uses the software, because it is very complicated, and for them to have to ability to meat with the development team face to face for training, feature requests, or bug reports is very beneficial. But, it is unfortunate that some companies often don't see the benefit of having good in house IT professionals and developers, at least when they are looking for more ways to please stakeholders.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#159

Post by jfarmer » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 8:04 PM UTC

luu wrote: post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

Caveat lector: I co-founded Dev Bootcamp (http://devbootcamp.com), which might inform your response to my comment.

I agree with you that, as far as I know, "Never have we had a privileged class that's so easy to enter."

There is something qualitatively different about programming, though, than almost every other field. I have a hard time describing it, but the best I've been able to do is this: the output of the field is also the input to the field.

The tools programmers use, for example, are built by other programmers. The same can't be said for auto-workers. Among other things this means if I get twice as good as a programmer I have the opportunity to increase my leverage super-linearly. There's a feedback mechanism at work that's not at work in many other fields, let alone fields that are so lucrative.

I might put scientific and mathematical research in the same bucket, for example, but even writing doesn't fall into this category. When it comes to writing, the means of distribution are governed entirely by non-writerly things.

Even the raw economics are different. We'll stop producing cars when the marginal profit is zero, but the marginal cost of software is zero-plus-epsilon.

The world we're in is new and strange and although I'd usually be the last to say it, I'm not sure the same rules apply to software. Those are "famous last words," of course, but my point is that I don't think it's so easy to put it in one bucket or the other.

It's sufficiently different from both I think we have to reserve judgement rather than prematurely pen The Story of Software™.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#160

Post by straight_talk_2 » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 8:06 PM UTC

luu wrote: post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

Many interesting arguments here.

I work at a software consulting firm, that charges $300+ per dev per hour. Excellent salaries, benefits, gaming consoles, free drinks and meals at the office, etc. Still the majority of the developers we're capable of hiring are incapable of understanding and applying concepts like monads, SOLID, low level async. Maybe the higher supply will only drive down the salaries of PHP&Co crowd.