Developers are the autoworkers of our generation • Hacker News Board

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#81

Post by unono » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 4:33 PM UTC

VLM wrote: post #62

luu wrote: post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

There's another interesting similarity not discussed in that autoworkers in, say, Wyoming, were pretty thin on the ground and not so well paid. In the Detroit area, sure there was competition and excellent pay. But in rural Wisconsin there was one (of many) rural assembly plants. Pay wasn't awful, but it wasn't as amazing as working in Detroit. And there was "a" plant. You get fired, you better move out of town becau…

Good comment, but I have to disagree with it.

The web and app stores are extensions of google/apple etc. There's people making money across the country and around the world.

The difference between auto workers and programmers is that programmers are not workers, but 'inventors'.

A better comparison is mechanical engineers in the 50s and programmers today.

Good mechanical engineers designed or started factories, and there was so much work that the backlog has still not been filled even today. The same can be said for programmers today.

There is the 'creative class' and everyone else. The true creatives never had a problem finding work, and that's the real 'education crisis'. Far too many 'creatively illiterate' being churned out by our failed education system.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#82

Post by walshemj » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 4:34 PM UTC

nohuck13 wrote: post #7

Hold on a minute. You can't discuss labor markets without discussing productivity. In the heyday of the automotive industry, the best auto worker in the world produced about the same output as the average auto worker. Maybe they messed up less, but being a genius autoworker didn't let you tower head and shoulders above the competition, because car factories are designed with auto workers as interchangeable parts. We'…

Well an production line's efficiency is defined by how well the line is engineered - the humans are effectively fleshy robots.

Though there are/where a lot of "spanish practices" in traditional engineering.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#83

Post by fnordfnordfnord » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 4:34 PM UTC

cowsandmilk wrote: post #47

grandalf wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please elaborate. Define "best" in the context of lawyers. Is it a graduate of Harvard Law? Or someone who managed to make partner at a major firm? How do you define output for a lawyer? Billable hours? Cases won? Contracts written?

defining "best" for a lawyer is similar to defining "best" for a software developer. It is production of quality at a rapid rate, choosing the right tools for a job, etc.

Aren't you guys using the economic definition of 'best' as in best = brings_in_the_most_money_per_unit_of_time_expended

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#84

Post by walshemj » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 4:35 PM UTC

luu wrote: post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

how much does 3/4 years at a tier 1 college cost these days

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#85

Post by michaelt » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 4:36 PM UTC

logn wrote: post #29

Yes, programmers keep automating their own work. And we keep trying to find ways to bring in new programmers. But software keeps eating the world. I don't see an end to this. The auto-industry was largely reliant on a very specific vertical. Also, programmers (unlike auto workers) have not locked in long term benefits that hamstring a company. In fact, we've embraced taking on the risks of the company and staying nim…

The vehicle industry covers a lot of verticals. You've got your cars and motorbikes for consumers. Your 18-wheelers that stock large retailers. Your smaller trucks for home deliveries. Pickup trucks and vans for tradespeople. Special logging trucks and refrigerated trucks and vehicle transporters. Backhoes and bulldozers and oil tankers and cranes and RVs and quadbikes. Look around you right now - if it isn't air or water, chances are it travelled on a vehicle to get to you.

And that's just vehicles that travel on the roads, there's also rail air and water vehicles.

Covering a lot of verticals does not exempt you from price competition.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#86

Post by kenrikm » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 4:42 PM UTC

luu wrote: post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

I would argue that software engineers do have a long hard road to becoming successful much like a doctors or lawyers however in most cases it's been amortized over their life using computers and much of it driven by the desire to learn rather then the requirements of some degree. I would go one step further and say that if you pick any random person off the street and throw them into a college CS program the vast majority would not do well even if they were very intelligent, there is a certain personality type required to excel in writing code if you're not good at concentrating on a single task for hours at a time well I'm sure there is something else out there for you. Also lets not forget that finishing a degree does not make a good engineer, shipping production software does and that is not something you can learn in 9 weeks or even four years at college. The lower end jobs may get tighter as time goes on but I don't see an "Auto Workers" type future until Skynet gets off the ground (Machine Learning FTW>?)

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#87

Post by rmk2 » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 4:43 PM UTC

pmichaud wrote: post #77

rmk2 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop patting yourself on the back. Seriously . Because obviously, no other job requires critical thinking and learning continually . These are "skills" that are in no way related to programming, and do not explain an inclination towards CS rather than any other science or the myriad of other academic disciplines. And even outside academia, not every job is just that of the "sheeple" who "mindlessly" "slug away" in th…

Arrogant, maybe, but there is at least a kernel of truth. I've done a lot of trades. I'm not a master level craftsman or anything, but I can build a house to code using just my current knowledge. The only thing I've never done is masonry, but I'm told it's not too tough. So that includes carpentry, electric, plumbing, fine wood working if you want things like molding and wainscoting, and more. I'm a very good but not…

My comment did not make a direct comparison between a craftsman and a programmer in terms of absolute difficulty and height of entrance, and neither do I claim an oblique equality in terms of capability for everybody. What I do question, however, is the grandparent's insistence that critical thinking and continues learning are what makes a programmer special.

I agree that more mathematically inclined people will be better programmers when it comes to harder areas, however, that is a question of ability and preference, like language or manual skills, not one of a fundamentally special disposition. Somebody who is mathematically inclined might become a banker, or a programmer, or a physicist or any other profession out of a myriad of possibilities. The same, however, goes for any other form of abilities and inclinations, somebody who is "good at languages" might become an author, PR person, translator or whatever else he/she wants. Somebody who is manually inclined equally has many different professions to choose from.

None of that is something I fundamentally question. The original article, however, makes a good point when it explains why developers are in a relatively good position: People will go were there is money to be made. That goes for language people (e.g. translation on a state-level), for manual people (e.g. mechanic on oil rigs or in mining) or mathematics people (e.g. programmers or finance).

Not everybody can or will become a developer, but there is no magical ingredient that keeps people from going into software who are capable to do so but might choose other jobs for a myriad of other reasons.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#88

Post by MichaelMoser123 » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 4:43 PM UTC

Autoworkers used to earn a decent salary, now it is programmers; Wow, now you need to have a degree in order to be somebody. And in a hundred years you will absolutely need to have a PhD in order to make ends meet ?

Maybe its all about supply and demand: only rare skills are worth something; if the once valued skills get common then all the advantages go out of the window (tm).

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#89

Post by unono » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 4:47 PM UTC

pmichaud wrote: post #77

rmk2 wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop patting yourself on the back. Seriously . Because obviously, no other job requires critical thinking and learning continually . These are "skills" that are in no way related to programming, and do not explain an inclination towards CS rather than any other science or the myriad of other academic disciplines. And even outside academia, not every job is just that of the "sheeple" who "mindlessly" "slug away" in th…

Arrogant, maybe, but there is at least a kernel of truth. I've done a lot of trades. I'm not a master level craftsman or anything, but I can build a house to code using just my current knowledge. The only thing I've never done is masonry, but I'm told it's not too tough. So that includes carpentry, electric, plumbing, fine wood working if you want things like molding and wainscoting, and more. I'm a very good but not…

Totally disagree with that.

As someone who was once a non-programmer but became one, and as someone who as taught and witnessed former 'dumb guys' as you're trying not to verbalize transform into productive programmers, I first-hand experience that contradicts what you're saying.

The data from Khan Academy also suggests there's no 'dumb people' out there. Time and again, they've found formerly incompetent learners to catch up and often exceed the class. (Salman Khan himself taught his niece from behind the average level grade 8 to university level within 2 years).

The real culprit is a bad education system, and we should applaud the pioneers attempting to destroy the failed system.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#90

Post by fnordfnordfnord » Mon, Sep 02, 2013, 4:48 PM UTC

gnaritas wrote: post #51

luu wrote: post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

> I'm told that CS enrollments are now at record highs Given the high dropout rate of anyone attempting to learn programming, I don't think enrollment rate is good metric. > What's the barrier to entry that's keeping us from being flooded with supply? Programming is hard; really f'ing hard, for most people because it requires critical thinking continually and learning continually.

It's not so hard. I think that most college freshmen find it so is because the quality of their prior education is so low. Many high schools still lack any programming curriculum.