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The Future of Web Startups

paulgraham.com

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Re: The Future of Web Startups

#31

Post by florianb »

Alex3917 wrote: post #21
aston wrote: post #9

Google has by far the best programmers of any public technology company. If they don't have a problem doing acquisitions, the others should have even less problem. However many Google does, Microsoft should be doing ten times as many. I actually think Microsoft does.

I heard Carl Schramm (the economist) give a talk on Tuesday, and IIRC he said that MS buys six to ten startups per month. Most big companies are buying startups like crazy now though, even the ones you'd never expect. For example, even Proctor & Gamble buys around 100 startups per year.

Mostly like in Bioscience they are buying patents ( P&G ) so that is not really comparable to web startups

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#32

Post by davidw »

> Acquirers will also have to get better at picking winners.

Hrm... one of the things that makes markets work so well is that it brings "the wisdom of crowds" to bear, and doesn't require small, homogeneous groups to attempt to pick winners. So something about that section raises a flag in my head - if there are more startups in the future, maybe more of them will have to go it alone, instead of this "easy out" of being bought?

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#33

Post by byrneseyeview »

run4yourlives wrote: post #30
dfranke wrote: post #12

With standardization comes bureaucracy. I dread what will happen when all this starts to become apparent to the government, and they decide that they need to "fix" some of the perceived injustices. How long before we start seeing laws regulating founder/investor relationships that look like our current laws for employers and employees? Will investors start being required to submit reports to the government to prove t…

> Will investors start being required to submit reports to the government to prove that their investment decisions aren't racially biased? Are you suggesting that investors should be racially biased? I'm playing devil's advocate far further than intended for sure, but the laws regarding employment, although bureaucratic are there for very good reasons.

I think he's suggesting that they could be accused of it. Startups are disproportionately started by men, most of whom are white or Asian. Paul Graham says not to blame on malice what you can attribute to math, but other people might not see it that way.

"I'm playing devil's advocate far further than intended for sure, but the laws regarding employment, although bureaucratic are there for very good reasons."

What is that reason?

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#34

Post by byrneseyeview »

davidw wrote: post #32

> Acquirers will also have to get better at picking winners. Hrm... one of the things that makes markets work so well is that it brings "the wisdom of crowds" to bear, and doesn't require small, homogeneous groups to attempt to pick winners. So something about that section raises a flag in my head - if there are more startups in the future, maybe more of them will have to go it alone, instead of this "easy out" of be…

Aren't acquirers a crowd?

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#35

Post by byrneseyeview »

allenbrunson wrote: post #18
garbowza wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The only qualification that you don't meet is confidence! If you say you can't, then you won't.

that's a nice attitude, and generally i agree. by "don't qualify," i mean i'm not really into the game the same way as the companies ycombinator seems to fund. for example, i'm not that excited about writing web apps, it just doesn't appeal to me. i think there are important sectors that could benefit from a bunch of startups that paul has completely written off, because he thinks it's less lucrative, i guess. well,…

You're very specific about what you won't do, but very vague about what you will do. Why?

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#36

Post by ivankirigin »

dfranke wrote: post #14
ivankirigin wrote: post #11

>> "Sometimes it literally is software, like Hacker News and our application rating system." You have software to rate the applications?

I assume he just means that the administrative interface to the submission system lets them record scores for each application they review.

yah... 7. Better Judgement Needed

If the number of startups increases dramatically, then the people whose job is to judge startups are going to have to get better at it. I'm thinking particularly of investors and acquirers. We now get on the order of 1000 applications a year. What are we going to do if we get 10,000?

That's actually an alarming idea. But we'll figure out some kind of answer. We'll have to. It will probably involve writing some software, but fortunately we can do that.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#37

Post by davidw »

byrneseyeview wrote: post #34
davidw wrote: post #32

> Acquirers will also have to get better at picking winners. Hrm... one of the things that makes markets work so well is that it brings "the wisdom of crowds" to bear, and doesn't require small, homogeneous groups to attempt to pick winners. So something about that section raises a flag in my head - if there are more startups in the future, maybe more of them will have to go it alone, instead of this "easy out" of be…

Aren't acquirers a crowd?

Maybe, but orders of magnitude smaller than most markets.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#38

Post by tx »

Many influential and smart guys like Paul are saying that starting your own company today got a lot cheaper, but what does it mean in practice?

While it depends on a nature of the business you are starting, in many cases "build something quick" advice does not work as well as advertised IMO: for most non-trivial ideas "something quick" still means a few months of full time commitment which means tens of thousands of dollars that many "younger nerdish" founders still do not have.

I guess what I am saying is that a million dollars is no different from fifty thousand when that's the money you need but do not have. Sure it probably easier to find an external investor with 50 grand, but is it really? Especially for "nerdier" types?

This is why YComb exists, but that is only about 30 deals a year.

Re: The Future of Web Startups

#39

Post by allenbrunson »

byrneseyeview wrote: post #35
allenbrunson wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

that's a nice attitude, and generally i agree. by "don't qualify," i mean i'm not really into the game the same way as the companies ycombinator seems to fund. for example, i'm not that excited about writing web apps, it just doesn't appeal to me. i think there are important sectors that could benefit from a bunch of startups that paul has completely written off, because he thinks it's less lucrative, i guess. well,…

You're very specific about what you won't do, but very vague about what you will do. Why?

erm, because it seems off-topic here?

this is paul's world. i like reading about the energy and creativity involved in web startups. i personally think that narrowing the field to just web startups is short-sighted, but that's not my call to make, certainly not here.

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