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Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

nytimes.com

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Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#121

Post by solistice »

wildgift wrote: post #81
wikiburner wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The suicidal in lower income situations could succumb to it in more subtle ways, for example heroin, crack, or meth overdose, suicide by gang, suicide by cop, etc.

That seems very different. That's more like exciting, risky behavior mixed in with a deathwish.

If you have nothing to loose and a death wish, you go on a rampage. If you have a reputation to uphold postmortem, going that route seems to be out of question. One route would be death due to work exhaustion, which the Japanese actually have a word for: "Karoshi". The other, more direct, is suicide.

There's many ways in which a deathwish can manifest, they're not limited to suicide.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#122

Post by solistice »

scardine wrote: post #44
coldtea wrote: post #27

> At the New York World's Fair of 2014, General Motors' "Futurama" may well display vistas of underground cities complete with light- forced vegetable gardens. Amazing prediction! Well, he got the GM part wrong, but indeed, there was a series called "Futurama" and it DID display "vistas of underground cities" (New New York)!

Not complete underground cities, but there are plenty underground marijuana light-forced gardens out there... Even with panels that change colors (some growers use different wavelengths for vegetative and flowering stages). :-)

You seem to know an awful lot about growing marijuana. Past work experience?

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#124

Post by cpfohl »

Houshalter wrote: post #91
dalek_cannes wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We produce vastly more, but work as much as ever. Back in the 60s the sentiment was that 21st century Americans might have 10 hour work weeks. Isn't that because we now have a very large semi-parasitical managerial class that we need to support? It's almost a retreat into feudalism. Doubt anybody saw that coming.

That doesn't make a lot of sense. People don't work because they want to support someone else, they work because they want to support themselves.

Can I assume you have neither spouse nor child? I'd argue that once those things come along you might disagree with your own statement. You could probably rephrase it so I agreed with you, though: "People don't work because they want to support their boss's high standard of living, they work because they want to improve their own."

Is that what you meant?

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#125

Post by dghughes »

ricardobeat wrote: post #29

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

Lawrence-Livermore NIF set a record recently https://www.llnl.gov/news/newsreleases/2013/Aug/NR-13-08-04....

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#126

Post by transfire »

What I don't think Mr. Asimov could have imagined is the rise of the Oligarchs, dominated primarily by the heads of the banking industry, though also by the petrochemical and a few other top-tier industries. These individuals have increasingly distorted the free-market system and corrupted the political systems to satisfy their own narrow ends. They are financial protectionists. And because of them a great deal of innovation that could have been has been stymied. I would argue that if it were not for their depressing effects on society, Mr. Asimov's predictions would now look rather underwhelming by comparison, as we would have achieved far more than he predicted. Alas, given our current state of affairs, I do not think it possible for society to advanced very far beyond were it currently stands. And in a matter of decades we are likely to start moving backwards rather then forwards. On that mark, with his concerns on population growth, I believe Mr. Asimov hit it squarely on the head.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#127

Post by zanny »

solistice wrote: post #120
dclowd9901 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

He's trying to make the case that there's some great conspiracy to keep people employed in jobs that shouldn't exist. I suppose he'll next tell us that the rich are "job creators."

I'm not sure what you think job creators are. Is it some kind of medal you get when you employ someone? Do you loose it if you fire them? What kind of conditions constitutes employing? Do I get to be a job creator if I give you a dollar for explaining your point? Job providers, I get why those are important. Not everyone wants to be bothered with the business side of living, along with its risks. I can actually see h…

I hate when the discussion devolves into putting flesh bodies into 40 hour a week boxes to repeat some repetitive task.

The truth behind job scarcity or not is supply and demand. Period. If there is no demand for yours, or someone elses labor, there is no job. No wealth redistribution will change that. The arguments behind why, though, the concentration of wealth was bad, is that the wealthy have fewer demands they want met relative to the entirety of everyone else. A more prosperous majority gnerates tremendous demand, millionaires generate limited and specific demand.

But you don't escape the reality of having a supply of something trying to meet the demand for it. There just isn't much demand for a lot of labor types, and producitivity multipliers in technology lets that demand be met with much less workforce supply, which means tremendous economic efficiency gains.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#128

Post by officemonkey »

solistice wrote: post #118
ricardobeat wrote: post #29

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

x EL panels No, but they're to expensive for usage on every wall. Personally, I think they'll be pushed towards fringe applications by a technology Asmimov didn't predict. High efficiency LEDs. x Smart glass Yes, but again a cost question. There's this [ http://money.cnn.com/video/technology/2012/01/10/t-ts-samsun... ], by Samsung. I don't see why you couldn't replace your windows with such screens if you had the spa…

There are several lighter than air gasses. Helium is rare, Neon is rarer, and Hydrogen is explosive and has really bad press. Methane is explosive as well.

Ammonia, Hydrogen flouride, and Diborane are either reactive or toxic.

Helium, Hydrogen and hot air are the most popular options, but none of them are as safe or cheap as plain old planes.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#129

Post by madaxe »

zanny wrote: post #31
ricardobeat wrote: post #29

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

On some of the missing ones: 1. We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades. It just consumes more power than it generates. But Asimov suggests one or two, which is strikingly accurate. 2. We could probably make radio-decay batteries (maybe not AA size, but car batteries running on Thorium or some such, albeit an extremely expensive containment for som…

We have "radio-decay batteries" - RTGs. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radioisotope_thermoelectric_gen...

They can be miniaturised, using the photoelectric effect, alphavoltaics or betavoltaics.

We do not use them because "Nuclear is bad, m'kay?", and the market just isn't there, so the R&D hasn't happened.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#130

Post by ricardobeat »

itafroma wrote: post #46
ricardobeat wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On 2, NASA does use radioactive decay batteries on the rovers, but it's still 'space tech' :) > where productivity is magnitudes higher Overall, yes. Per worker? Hell no. Half or more of current jobs are pushing paper and doing meaningless bureaucratic work. Related article from last week: www.strikemag.org/bullshit-jobs/

> > where productivity is magnitudes higher > Overall, yes. Per worker? Hell no. Half or more of current jobs are pushing paper and doing meaningless bureaucratic work. Actually, productivity per worker has grown for most developed countries. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has a wealth of information on the subject: http://www.bls.gov/fls/intl_gdp_capita_gdp_hour.htm Of note is chart 6, which shows GDP per hour worke…

If you consider 'productivity' as generating financial wealth, yes, but GDP is not a material measure. Going solely by that, bankers would be the most productive workers on earth, and I'm sure lots of people would disagree.
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