Couldn't wait for 2014 to post this, huh? :P
Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
61–70 of 175 posts
Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
On some of the missing ones: 1. We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades. It just consumes more power than it generates. But Asimov suggests one or two, which is strikingly accurate. 2. We could probably make radio-decay batteries (maybe not AA size, but car batteries running on Thorium or some such, albeit an extremely expensive containment for som…
Like with the prescient Ladies' Home Journal predictions, much of what hasn't happened isn't so much that we couldn't do it, but that we can do it and find it uninteresting or inconvenient after all (like moon colonies: doable, just not much point given the cost involved vs benefits).
It is irritating to hear claims that something can be done which has never been done. As evidenced by every project I've ever worked on, people have a very poor idea of how much work it takes to accomplish a task. There are very likely hurdles to building moon colonies that you have not considered.
Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
#63"Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014." It is a striking finding of cross-cultural studies of suicide that many of the places with especially high suicide r…
The suicidal in lower income situations could succumb to it in more subtle ways, for example heroin, crack, or meth overdose, suicide by gang, suicide by cop, etc.
Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
#64- What will the World's Fair of 2014 be like?
- At the New York World's Fair of 2014, General Motors' "Futurama" may well display vistas of underground cities complete with light- forced vegetable gardens.
- In fact, one popular exhibit at the 2014 World's Fair will be such a 3-D TV, built life-size, in which ballet performances will be seen.
- The 2014 World's Fair will have exhibits showing cities in the deep sea with bathyscaphe liners carrying men and supplies across and into the abyss.
- One of the more serious exhibits at the 2014 World's Fair, accordingly, will be a series of lectures, movies and documentary material at the World Population Control Center (adults only; special showings for teen-agers).
Summary from http://textteaser.com
Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
#65In fact, the animatronic 1964 GE pavillion show that Asimov is talking about can still be seen today at Disney World. It's called the Carousel of Progress, kind of tucked away behind the Buzz Lightyear ride in tomorrowland and sadly (but understandably) not as popular as it used to be.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Walt_Disney's_Carousel_of_Pro...
Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
#66Earlier quoted context omitted.
> ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) I used to have corrective glasses that did what he described. I can't remember what the type of lens was called, and Google is being unhelpful. But walking in and out of shade was definitely a bit annoying because it kept repolarizing. > ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) I'd say so. Open question: how would we put benches on moving sidewalks? P.S. I am amused…
I recently read an interesting New Scientist article in an old (2009) magazine[0] which explains how to use moving sidewalks for mass public transit. Spoiler alert - it has actually been done before! [0] - http://web.archive.org/web/20090809091201/http://www.newscie... (using wayback machine because new site is behind paywal)
I guess making the sidewalks a circular deal would make the benches problem pretty easy to solve. I was really more hoping for some scheme to expand and collapse the benches.
Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
#67Very good Isaac. Except the robots are allowed to kill.
Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
#68Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…
On some of the missing ones: 1. We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades. It just consumes more power than it generates. But Asimov suggests one or two, which is strikingly accurate. 2. We could probably make radio-decay batteries (maybe not AA size, but car batteries running on Thorium or some such, albeit an extremely expensive containment for som…
> We produce vastly more, but work as much as ever. Back in the 60s the sentiment was that 21st century Americans might have 10 hour work weeks.
Isn't that because we now have a very large semi-parasitical managerial class that we need to support? It's almost a retreat into feudalism. Doubt anybody saw that coming.
Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
#69Earlier quoted context omitted.
I would be willing to consider the International Space Station an equivalent of the Moon colonies, as it serves much the same purpose; research and training, but is more convenient.
It's way easier to build a space station than a Moon Colony. The technical achievement is very different in magnitude.
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Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
On some of the missing ones: 1. We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades. It just consumes more power than it generates. But Asimov suggests one or two, which is strikingly accurate. 2. We could probably make radio-decay batteries (maybe not AA size, but car batteries running on Thorium or some such, albeit an extremely expensive containment for som…
Like with the prescient Ladies' Home Journal predictions, much of what hasn't happened isn't so much that we couldn't do it, but that we can do it and find it uninteresting or inconvenient after all (like moon colonies: doable, just not much point given the cost involved vs benefits).
+1 to Willi there, moon colonies are not currently "doable". They will be once we have on-orbit re-fueling. That is because you have to have some way of transporting things you cannot get or make on the moon, too the moon.
The Apollo program, as impressive as it was, was never expected to be extendable to a colony effort. Rather first a space station was to be put in orbit, then on-orbit refueling, then space 'tugs', and then you could send up things that could land on the moon and ship additional building materials there.
That said, I found the hovercraft idea interesting since the benefit of hovercraft are completely negated by the inability to push against the surface for turning force and thus to re-capture forward energy into turning energy. This is a huge problem with lighter than air airships as well. Asimov should have known that.