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Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

nytimes.com

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Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#91

Post by Houshalter »

dalek_cannes wrote: post #68
zanny wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On some of the missing ones: 1. We have at least one fusion plant I know of, the UK Joint Torus, which I know have been operating for decades. It just consumes more power than it generates. But Asimov suggests one or two, which is strikingly accurate. 2. We could probably make radio-decay batteries (maybe not AA size, but car batteries running on Thorium or some such, albeit an extremely expensive containment for som…

> We produce vastly more, but work as much as ever. Back in the 60s the sentiment was that 21st century Americans might have 10 hour work weeks. Isn't that because we now have a very large semi-parasitical managerial class that we need to support? It's almost a retreat into feudalism. Doubt anybody saw that coming.

That doesn't make a lot of sense. People don't work because they want to support someone else, they work because they want to support themselves.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#92

Post by dclowd9901 »

Houshalter wrote: post #91
dalek_cannes wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We produce vastly more, but work as much as ever. Back in the 60s the sentiment was that 21st century Americans might have 10 hour work weeks. Isn't that because we now have a very large semi-parasitical managerial class that we need to support? It's almost a retreat into feudalism. Doubt anybody saw that coming.

That doesn't make a lot of sense. People don't work because they want to support someone else, they work because they want to support themselves.

He's trying to make the case that there's some great conspiracy to keep people employed in jobs that shouldn't exist.

I suppose he'll next tell us that the rich are "job creators."

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#93

Post by dclowd9901 »

b0rsuk wrote: post #90

Why are moving sidewalks so incredibly popular in old SF novels ?!?! The concept is silly. The constant energy use is a showstopper, and even if you assume thorium reactors would handle it, there's material fatigue. Another early SF prediction which which is baffling today: everything (houses, cars, highways) made of... plastic. Plastic being the material of the future. But perhaps it's not as naive, seeing as early…

Fiberglass siding, modular order-and-build houses are made of plastic, and the matter looks pretty damn futuristic and cool.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#94

Post by mirkules »

beambot wrote: post #57
ricardobeat wrote: post #29

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

Smart glass exists (Transitions lenses), as do radioactive batteries (using beta-decay by a company called BetaBatt, and RTGs used by NASA). The former is a commercial success; I've owned and loved the lenses for years. I don't know if the latter is used outside certain sensing, defense, and aerospace applications.

It should be noted, however, that he correctly predicts that batteries should be disposed of only by authorized centers undoubtedly due to their hypothetical radioactive nature -- which is clearly wrong -- but I think we can give a quarter of a point there for even thinking about the ramifications of disposable batteries.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#95

Post by mirkules »

saraid216 wrote: post #51
ricardobeat wrote: post #29

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

> ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) I used to have corrective glasses that did what he described. I can't remember what the type of lens was called, and Google is being unhelpful. But walking in and out of shade was definitely a bit annoying because it kept repolarizing. > ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) I'd say so. Open question: how would we put benches on moving sidewalks? P.S. I am amused…

They also have conveyor belts in Las Vegas hotels and IIRC on some of the walkways connecting the hotels.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#96

Post by samstave »

ricardobeat wrote: post #29

Round-up: ✗ EL panels (not yet) ✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari) ✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave ✓ Lame robots ✓ 3D movies ✗ Fusion power plants ✗ Radioactive batteries ✓ Solar power ✓ Self-driving cars (in progress) ✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?) ✓ Video calls ✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books ✓ Global mobile phone network ✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for gran…

Don't many (most?) satellites use radioactive batteries?

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#97

Post by mirkules »

ekianjo wrote: post #56
scheff wrote: post #49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be willing to consider the International Space Station an equivalent of the Moon colonies, as it serves much the same purpose; research and training, but is more convenient.

It's way easier to build a space station than a Moon Colony. The technical achievement is very different in magnitude.

Fun fact: the ISS would be technically impossible to build on Earth because it would collapse due to its own weight. No gravity makes creating structures much easier both to move and to support.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#98

Post by dredmorbius »

rpedela wrote: post #79
williadc wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is irritating to hear claims that something can be done which has never been done. As evidenced by every project I've ever worked on, people have a very poor idea of how much work it takes to accomplish a task. There are very likely hurdles to building moon colonies that you have not considered.

There is a big difference between saying something is possible and saying something is easy. I don't think it is easy to build a moon colony. On the other hand, I do not see any scientific or engineering reason why it is not possible. We have already proven we can land on the moon and that we can build space colonies (i.e. ISS). Sure there are hurdles I have not considered, but that just makes it hard not impossible.

Given that we've not been able to create a self-contained biosphere on Earth, the prospect for long-term environmental support on the Moon seems low.

The IIS gets regular resupplies to keep its environmental support systems operational and habitable.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#100

Post by contingencies »

leeny wrote: post #16

I guess he never anticipated that "the best minds of [our] generation are thinking about how to make people click ads."[1] [1] http://www.smh.com.au/business/world-business/why-this-tech-...

Or extracting wealth from the digitally accelerated, cataclysmic, climactic failure of the economic system of yore. Or the legal systems, fairly similarly. Or to global surveillance systems dangling carrots for citizens but storing all of their data: location, human communications, etc. forever.
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