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Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

nytimes.com

21–30 of 175 posts

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#21
post #15
post #11

I think it's important to note here that Asimov was never a big proponent of the "science fiction author as Nostradamus" theory. He was always very clear that neither his nor any other writer's predictions should be given any more credibility than the average Joe off the street. In fact, I'm pretty puzzled as to why this article was written at all.

Intentional or not, he has certainly predicted technology that has only recently come into existence. They may seem obvious now, but I wonder how inevitable they seemed during the 50s and 60s? Take for instance the Multivac: it is essentially Wolfram Alpha, even down to the pro-tier pricing he mentions in one short story.

I suspect Wolfram Alpha was explicitly designed with Multivac in mind, either directly or indirectly through the general idea of an oracular AI machine.

Google, on the other hand, is a bit more alien--though I have met plenty of people who try to address Google as if it was Multivac (or Siri, I suppose).

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#23
"Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014."

It is a striking finding of cross-cultural studies of suicide that many of the places with especially high suicide rates, and many of the cultural subgroups with high suicide rates among groups who live in the same place, are the advantaged rather than the disadvantaged. While people have to struggle to survive, they stay alive to continue the struggle. When people's basic needs are all met, they sometimes doubt the meaningfulness of living.

"Why Suicides Are More Common in Richer Neighborhoods"

http://business.time.com/2012/11/08/why-suicides-are-more-co...

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#24
"Even so, mankind will suffer badly from the disease of boredom, a disease spreading more widely each year and growing in intensity. This will have serious mental, emotional and sociological consequences, and I dare say that psychiatry will be far and away the most important medical specialty in 2014. The lucky few who can be involved in creative work of any sort will be the true elite of mankind, for they alone will do more than serve a machine."

This bit is spot on.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#25
post #15
post #11

I think it's important to note here that Asimov was never a big proponent of the "science fiction author as Nostradamus" theory. He was always very clear that neither his nor any other writer's predictions should be given any more credibility than the average Joe off the street. In fact, I'm pretty puzzled as to why this article was written at all.

Intentional or not, he has certainly predicted technology that has only recently come into existence. They may seem obvious now, but I wonder how inevitable they seemed during the 50s and 60s? Take for instance the Multivac: it is essentially Wolfram Alpha, even down to the pro-tier pricing he mentions in one short story.

>Take for instance the Multivac: it is essentially Wolfram Alpha, even down to the pro-tier pricing he mentions in one short story.

Or it would be, if Wolfram Alpha wasn't tragically limited.

Given the grandiose annoucements when it came out, I expected a lot more than a wikipedia meets scientific calculator with sub-Siri query intelligence.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#26
>"Windows need be no more than an archaic touch, and even when present will be polarized to block out the harsh sunlight. The degree of opacity of the glass may even be made to alter automatically in accordance with the intensity of the light falling upon it."

This actually makes me curious. Why don't we have photochromic windows? We use the technology in transition lenses.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#27
>At the New York World's Fair of 2014, General Motors' "Futurama" may well display vistas of underground cities complete with light- forced vegetable gardens.

Amazing prediction!

Well, he got the GM part wrong, but indeed, there was a series called "Futurama" and it DID display "vistas of underground cities" (New New York)!

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#28
>And experimental fusion-power plant or two will already exist in 2014. (Even today, a small but genuine fusion explosion is demonstrated at frequent intervals in the G.E. exhibit at the 1964 fair.)

Anybody knows what happened to that G.E fusion thing he mentions?

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#29
Round-up:

✗ EL panels (not yet)

✗ Smart glass (unless you own a ferrari)

✓ Frozen meals + programmable microwave

✓ Lame robots

✓ 3D movies

✗ Fusion power plants

✗ Radioactive batteries

✓ Solar power

✓ Self-driving cars (in progress)

✗ Moving sidewalks (do airport conveyors count?)

✓ Video calls

✓ Mobile data, sharing, e-books

✓ Global mobile phone network

✗ Moon colonies (double fail since he just takes them for granted)

✓ Fiber-optics

✓ Unmanned mars missions, plans for a colony (mars one etc)

✓ Flat screen TVs

✓ 3D display tech demos

✓ Meat substitutes

✓ Digital teaching aids (kinda)

✓ Boredom and consumerism

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#30

>"Windows need be no more than an archaic touch, and even when present will be polarized to block out the harsh sunlight. The degree of opacity of the glass may even be made to alter automatically in accordance with the intensity of the light falling upon it." This actually makes me curious. Why don't we have photochromic windows? We use the technology in transition lenses.

I think the technology is just too expensive unless you want to show off: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_glass
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