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Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

nytimes.com

11–20 of 175 posts

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#11
I think it's important to note here that Asimov was never a big proponent of the "science fiction author as Nostradamus" theory. He was always very clear that neither his nor any other writer's predictions should be given any more credibility than the average Joe off the street.

In fact, I'm pretty puzzled as to why this article was written at all.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#12
post #11

I think it's important to note here that Asimov was never a big proponent of the "science fiction author as Nostradamus" theory. He was always very clear that neither his nor any other writer's predictions should be given any more credibility than the average Joe off the street. In fact, I'm pretty puzzled as to why this article was written at all.

> In fact, I'm pretty puzzled as to why this article was written at all.

He shifted away from fiction and into non-fiction (textbooks, educational books, and newspaper columns) in the early 60s. This probably falls into the "scientific education" niche in some form.

My understanding is that Asimov did not believe in science fiction as a clear-cut prophecy of the future but did enjoy talking about what effects modern-day science and achievements could have on the future and the society of the future in non-fiction. He very much enjoyed making science -- and knowledge in general -- more accessible to other people.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#15
post #11

I think it's important to note here that Asimov was never a big proponent of the "science fiction author as Nostradamus" theory. He was always very clear that neither his nor any other writer's predictions should be given any more credibility than the average Joe off the street. In fact, I'm pretty puzzled as to why this article was written at all.

Intentional or not, he has certainly predicted technology that has only recently come into existence. They may seem obvious now, but I wonder how inevitable they seemed during the 50s and 60s? Take for instance the Multivac: it is essentially Wolfram Alpha, even down to the pro-tier pricing he mentions in one short story.

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#18
post #5

I'd be curious to know if anyone has ever written one of these types of predictions, at any period in history predicting another period 50+ years out, and not had a large percentage of big misses.

In 1900, The Ladies' Home Journal had a long list of "What May Happen in the Next Hundred Years" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Elfreth_Watkins with most of the predictions either spot-on or close enough (them being unable to conceive of the means to the end, but getting the gist of the prediction right).

Re: Isaac Asimov's predictions for what the world will be like in 2014

#19
post #14

Robots will neither be common nor very good in 2014, but they will be in existence. They're good but not common.

They're pretty common in heavy industry.

He meant humanoid robots, not fancy industrial automation.
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