Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target • Hacker News Board

Re: Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target

#71

Post by jamii » Sat, Aug 03, 2013, 1:00 PM UTC

charlesray wrote: post #59

I don't know why anyone would want to use an Ubuntu smartphone, excluding the obvious free software implications. It's guaranteed to be worse than virtually everything else on the market. And why would Canonical even want to get into this business. You're competing against Apple, Google, Microsoft and Blackberry. They cannot win.

1: Wearable computing. We already have laser projectors, laser keyboards, HUDs and optical gesture recognition. 2014 will bring physical gesture recognition (Myo). Unfortunately most phones don't support HDMI or USB out and don't have the battery capacity to support this kind of usage. That leaves you using clunky, low-powered hobbyist hardware.

2: Direct development. When your phone is your computer there is no hassle with remote debugging or simulators.

3: Familiar native environment. All the software I already run on my ubuntu laptop can be run on my phone. I don't have to learn new tools, make multiple versions of my software or manage communication between my phone and laptop.

All of these things are sort-of possible already but it's awkward and difficult and you have to make lots of compromises. Having an easily programmable, always-on device in your pocket with the full power of a laptop and access to new emerging interaction hardware - that's going to be something new.

Re: Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target

#72

Post by AndrewDucker » Sat, Aug 03, 2013, 1:02 PM UTC

I am not convinced that crowdfunding suits high cost items.

If there were Edge phones on the market in six months time, when my phone runs out of contract, I'd be interested.

But I do not have $700 completely spare to buy a phone that I will not get my hands on until then.

Re: Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target

#73

Post by ansible » Sat, Aug 03, 2013, 1:14 PM UTC

I sort of agree with some of the ideas behind this product, but I would have gone in a different direction.

The critical thing I want is to maintain my working context wherever I go. Browser tabs, open documents, and so on. I'm not necessarily going to be doing the same tasks when I'm out and about than when I'm at a desk.

I definitely don't want to be limited in terms of processing power and RAM to what I can carry around in my pocket.

Re: Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target

#74

Post by smithzvk » Sat, Aug 03, 2013, 1:58 PM UTC

AndrewDucker wrote: post #72

I am not convinced that crowdfunding suits high cost items. If there were Edge phones on the market in six months time, when my phone runs out of contract, I'd be interested. But I do not have $700 completely spare to buy a phone that I will not get my hands on until then.

Crowd funding, at its core, is a pay first system. This means that it is also in some way speculative. You cannot price your device above what people are willing to live without if the project fails spectacularly (or simply fails to deliver on what they really wanted).

To be fair, if Ubuntu Edge is truly the F1 of phones, then it should be marketed to people that don't bat an eye at spending $830 on a device they have never held and have little guarantee that it will actually be suitable for their needs. I just think that the intersection of those people and Ubuntu users is significantly smaller than Canonical thought it was.

Re: Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target

#75

Post by mr_luc » Sat, Aug 03, 2013, 1:58 PM UTC

skaevola wrote: post #68

MarcScott wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Again, I'm speculating but; hitting 16m at around 800 a phone equates to 20,000 phones. That's 20k potential sales of a phone that doesn't exist, using an OS that's still in development, to a tiny subset of individuals willing to engage in crowd sourcing. That's pretty impressive if you ask me. Imagine how well a carrier-subsidised version would do?

20k is nothing. Smartphone manufacturers will laugh at you for fewer than hundreds of thousands. To get a good deal they want to see millions.

20k is nothing ... for direct phone sales.

It's a lot of F-22 fighters, though. And a lot of Christmas hams for one family (but not a nation).

How many times do 20k customers pool millions of dollars to go towards the development of a phone?

20k people willing to pay $800 per phone is a tiny market.

20k people who care enough to pledge $800 towards development of something that doesn't exist is a huge group of passionate early adopters.

Re: Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target

#76

Post by Systemic33 » Sat, Aug 03, 2013, 2:00 PM UTC

pestaa wrote: post #66

6d0debc071 wrote: post #62

Computer hardware has a low replacement rate. And this: 4Gb of RAM and 128Gb of storage. Is simultaneously too much for a phone and around the low end for any computer released in at least the last half decade. They've gone the wrong way, it seems to me. What was impressive was the fact that you could move your user environment around in your pocket. They chose to make the hardware a small computer to accomplish that…

One could also argue they are discovering a niche (developers who need to get on the go really fast, really often), so they're entering a tiny fraction of one market only. I guess it all comes down to perspective.

I think the problem is that this niche, is really only worth the maybe $10M that have roughly been given so far. The niche consists of developers, who are happy to produce all the apps they need for themselves (since the app market is at 0), they like Ubuntu (since this is really what they have now chosen to buy into, they want to give up their current phone and laptop setup in no less than 30 days max, and last but not least; is ready to shell out $800+ for a non-existing phone, that could be out of date by the time its in their hands.

To me that sounds like an incredibly tiny fraction of the smartphone market. If I were Canonical, I would use this as a survey, that tells you that you've got X amount of people ready to shell out $10M within 30 days of announcement. Surely the rest of the money could be earned from people who are aren't looking to change phone right now, and maybe wants to test the waters by seeing it in video reviews or in stores, and then pay the price. After all, isn't that what companies do? Take risks, and get rewarded if it works, instead of this extremely carefull investment (even Apple is more risky with its money for crying out loud).

Re: Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target

#77

Post by dan1234 » Sat, Aug 03, 2013, 2:04 PM UTC

badclient wrote: post #17

Pretty sure they are coordinating with corporates behind the scenes and have few million lined up in commitments that will turn into actual $ as we get closer. That in itself makes this campaign unpredidented - I don't recall another campaign with a $80,000 contribution level. IMO they should be able to get 100 of the Fortune 500 companies to fork over $80,0000 for an exclusive access to the new shiney thing in mobil…

> IMO they should be able to get 100 of the Fortune 500 companies to fork over $80,0000 for an exclusive access to the new shiney thing in mobile.

There are only 50 of those $80k bundles available. (Also, only 50 of the $10k)

> Heck Marissa Mayer alone may just reimburse every Yahoo employee who decides to get one going by her thirst for mobile ... and pr.

Why? What's in this for Yahoo?

Re: Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target

#78

Post by rsynnott » Sat, Aug 03, 2013, 2:19 PM UTC

pestaa wrote: post #66

6d0debc071 wrote: post #62

Computer hardware has a low replacement rate. And this: 4Gb of RAM and 128Gb of storage. Is simultaneously too much for a phone and around the low end for any computer released in at least the last half decade. They've gone the wrong way, it seems to me. What was impressive was the fact that you could move your user environment around in your pocket. They chose to make the hardware a small computer to accomplish that…

One could also argue they are discovering a niche (developers who need to get on the go really fast, really often), so they're entering a tiny fraction of one market only. I guess it all comes down to perspective.

I'm not sure if this is a real niche. For the device to be any use to a developer, you'd really need an external monitor and keyboard. So you're looking at a developer who for some reason can bring a phone places, cannot bring a Macbook Air or something places, and has monitors and keyboards available everywhere they bring the phone. Does this actually fit anyone's situation?

Re: Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target

#79

Post by rsynnott » Sat, Aug 03, 2013, 2:22 PM UTC

snitko wrote: post #16

They should buy bitcoins on some money they raised: it will surely spark a new spike in price, but, hopefully, because they initiated it, they can later profit from people who follow the trend by buying and raising the price even more. That way, they can maybe reach $32m target and possibly even more.

So they should take the money they raised, which they have to give back if they don't make their goal, and invest it in a horrendously volatile bubble asset? Sounds ideal.

Re: Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target

#80

Post by spyder » Sat, Aug 03, 2013, 2:25 PM UTC

northwest wrote: post #53

"Ubuntu Edge will miss $32M crowdfunding target" The interesting underlying question: Does creating a data-based model about the future, predicting the future and publicly circulating this prediction invalidate the model itself (and thus the prediction) or not?

Now that we know that it will not succeed we all can pledge to show our support without paying. Oh wait... :)