Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone? • Hacker News Board

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#131

Post by zootar » Tue, Jul 23, 2013, 9:21 PM UTC

tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

Steven Pinker on the lead theory:

There are reasons to be skeptical of any claim based on correlations between such widely separated variables as lead exposure (the cause) and crime (the effect). Consuming lead does not instantly turn someone into a criminal in the way that consuming vitamin C cures scurvy. It affects the child’s developing brain, which makes the child duller and more impulsive, which, in some children, and under the right circumstances, leads them to grow up to make short-sighted and risky choices, which, in some children and under the right circumstances, leads them to commit crimes, which, if enough young people act in the same way and at the same time, affects the crime rate. The lead hypothesis correlates the first and last link in this chain, but it would be more convincing if there were evidence about the intervening links. Such correlations should be far stronger than the one they report: presumably most kids with lead are more impulsive, whereas only a minority of impulsive young adults commit crimes. If they are right we should see very strong changes in IQ, school achievement, impulsiveness, childhood aggressiveness, lack of conscientiousness (one of the “Big Five” personality traits) that mirror the trends in lead exposure, with a suitable time delay. Those trends should be much stronger than the time-lagged correlation of lead with crime itself, which is only indirectly related to impulsiveness, an effect that is necessarily diluted by other causes such as policing and incarceration.

http://stevenpinker.com/files/pinker/files/pinker_comments_o...

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#132

Post by bubbleRefuge » Tue, Jul 23, 2013, 9:36 PM UTC

superflit wrote: post #11

The burglars went to the internet. Low exposure to police and easier ways to attract victims. (scams, rip off schemes, ponzi)

Yeah, to generalize, IMHO, a big part of this is there has been a move from blue collar to white collar crimes. Having grown up in South Florida myself, certainly there is anecdotal evidence of that. South Florida leads the nation in medicare fraud reaching possibly into the billions. Mortgage fraud was another linchpin during the financial crisis. There are tons of call centers in the area full of drug addicts who peddle every sort of scam you can think of to the gullible types in flyover country : automobile warranties, gold , carbon credits, home warranties. The latest craze is tax return fraud.

Here's an old article about medicare fraud: http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/10/23/60minutes/main5414... "They've figured out that rather than stealing $100,000 or $200,000, they can steal $100 million. We have seen cases in the last six, eight months that involve a couple of guys that if they weren't stealing from Medicare might be stealing your car," Ogrosky explained."

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#133

Post by pekk » Tue, Jul 23, 2013, 9:39 PM UTC

fnordfnordfnord wrote: post #104

coryrc wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Small planes still run leaded fuels so the (rich) owners can save money not changing their engines. This is 50% of our current exposure, needlessly! http://www.treehugger.com/aviation/leaded-gas-banned-around-...

Talk to the FAA, who have made it so expensive to upgrade/update anything related to airplanes. There is a marginally viable aftermarket parts market for these engines now, but for a long time owners were strictly limited to OEM, salvage, and remanufactured parts. Also, the number of older GA Airplanes, and antique/warbirds in service are so small, it's got to be nothing compared to the exposure from thirty years ago…

If it's 50% of our current exposure, it's not "nothing".

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#134

Post by liquidcool » Tue, Jul 23, 2013, 9:48 PM UTC

lifeformed wrote: post #113

liquidcool wrote: post #62

Since this piece mentions burglary in specific, I found it thriving in Southern California (OC), but in a very specific fashion. Very careful criminals are using the following M.O.: - Parking garages with no cameras - Security is part time, and they wait until they're gone - They hit only cars that are unlocked, so no breaking, just entering - Occasionally, if they see a big score like a laptop, they will break a win…

What are people leaving in their cars that are worth taking?

In addition to laptops and cameras mentioned, they also go through your glove box. They stole my (prescription) sunglasses and my $5 phone charger probably thinking it was worth $30.

But some people leave their GPS in there (not everyone has a smartphone for that), or they forget their phone, or maybe keep some emergency cash there.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#135

Post by cglace » Tue, Jul 23, 2013, 9:56 PM UTC

bilbo0s wrote: post #54

tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

I don't know if we have to go reaching for lead as the reason. If the effects of chemical substances on the brain are indeed a factor... and yes, they probably are. Then there is probably a far more simple explanation. Drugs. Instead of police being faced with impoverished young men of the 70s, 80s and 90s who are hyped up on cocaine, crack or pcp and trolling for their next hit. They are dealing with the impoverishe…

While crack and PCP use has dropped(I don't actually know that it has) I think it would have been offset by the increased use of meth.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#136

Post by Amadou » Tue, Jul 23, 2013, 10:04 PM UTC

taway2012 wrote: post #74

Amadou wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Lead bans in America varied by state, the end date on that wikipedia page is a misleading number in that leaded gasoline use had been substantially reduced starting many years earlier. There was a major drop in leaded gasoline starting in the early 70s, by 1980 it was down over 50% from peak. By 1986 it was down over 90%. I can't speak to the implementation of lead reduction leading to the outright ban in Brazil, but…

Oblig link on "after-the-fact-recognition": http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2013/01/looney-gas-and-lea...

You misunderstand. I meant the federal law was an after-the-fact-recognition of what many states had already done. Kind of like the way DOMA (defense of marriage act) was struck down by SCOTUS only after a bunch of states started recognizing gay marriage or how marijuana is likely to be legalized at the federal level only after enough states have already legalized it.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#137

Post by EGreg » Tue, Jul 23, 2013, 10:10 PM UTC

RyanMcGreal wrote: post #102

EGreg wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're talking about only the USA. Actually, violent crime spiked in late 80s and then was coming down from that spike in the 90s, so there's that confounding factor. Most of the crime in the late 80s was juvenile crime in fact. It might have had to do with the culture of the time (inner city gangs, etc.) A better way would be to compare what people focus on / use on a daily basis today vs in the 80s. If you are rest…

I'm talking across the industrialized world. The availability of the internet and other 'pacification networks' may be a contributing factor but it's clearly not the driving force.

Well violence in Britain started to go down a decade later than in the USA, so your time frame counterexample doesn't work for that.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#138

Post by Amadou » Tue, Jul 23, 2013, 10:19 PM UTC

coryrc wrote: post #76

tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

Small planes still run leaded fuels so the (rich) owners can save money not changing their engines. This is 50% of our current exposure, needlessly! http://www.treehugger.com/aviation/leaded-gas-banned-around-...

That article does not say what you think it does. It is 50% of new lead pollution, not exposure. According to the reporting of the original lead::crime theory, most of current lead exposure is due to lead dust that was created during the decades of leaded automobile gasoline. The dust has settled in urban areas and it gets kick up by weather and people breath that.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#139

Post by parfe » Tue, Jul 23, 2013, 10:29 PM UTC

dllthomas wrote: post #129

mikeash wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You've got plenty of replies criticizing your "rich" bit, but, well, you deserve at least one more. Something should probably be done about the use of leaded fuel in general aviation. However, trying to turn it into class warfare (while every single pilot I know, and I know a lot of them, is middle-class) severely hurts your argument.

If you own a plane, you're rich globally.

Posting a comment to this website makes you rich globally. Not exactly a high bar.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#140

Post by spamizbad » Tue, Jul 23, 2013, 10:37 PM UTC

lmickh wrote: post #109

DanI-S wrote: post #69

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Absolutely. In fact, many welfare schemes are designed to encourage young people to stay in education rather than dropping out early to work. In any case: since poor, unemployed young men commit crime, and we're never going to see 100% employment, lifting them out of poverty will reduce the impact of crime on everyone else. Intolerable for Ayn Rand; pragmatic for the rest of us.

Poverty rates have actually increased since the introduction of welfare and welfare reform in the US. Long term stability of your proposal aside (see the jump in Disability dependencies that followed the welfare reform), it doesn't match the data that shows a drop in crime over the same time period.

Has it really? It dropped significantly in the 60s and 70s. Following that period, it tended to track economic trends (Poverty goes up during recession, comes back down during the good times)

Source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/07/11/p...