Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

economist.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

101–110 of 190 posts

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#101

Post by DanI-S »

omegaham wrote: post #86
DanI-S wrote: post #36

There's no mention of the rise of the welfare state. I'd be surprised if the presence of an economic safety net didn't have an impact on people's willingness to commit crime. In the end, I'm sure the answer is a combination of all these factors. As individuals and as a species, we get better at living as time goes on.

Actually, welfare benefits are much lower than they were under Johnson's Great Society programs. They declared a War on Poverty back in the 60s, and it did about as well as the current War on Drugs. We've actually been cutting welfare benefits for some time, culminating in the reforms done under the Clinton administration.

Not all of the original article's statistics were based in the US, though. Few European countries were cutting welfare until 2008.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#102

Post by RyanMcGreal »

EGreg wrote: post #41
RyanMcGreal wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Simple and likely wrong. Violent crime started falling in the early 1990s, before the internet had much of any penetration outside academia.

You're talking about only the USA. Actually, violent crime spiked in late 80s and then was coming down from that spike in the 90s, so there's that confounding factor. Most of the crime in the late 80s was juvenile crime in fact. It might have had to do with the culture of the time (inner city gangs, etc.) A better way would be to compare what people focus on / use on a daily basis today vs in the 80s. If you are rest…

I'm talking across the industrialized world. The availability of the internet and other 'pacification networks' may be a contributing factor but it's clearly not the driving force.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#103

Post by fixedd »

coryrc wrote: post #76
tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

Small planes still run leaded fuels so the (rich) owners can save money not changing their engines. This is 50% of our current exposure, needlessly! http://www.treehugger.com/aviation/leaded-gas-banned-around-...

1) There are enough factual errors in that article to show that the author doesn't know what he's talking about.

2) Small airplanes aren't necessarily expensive, so you don't necessarily have to be rich to afford them. For instance, there's a Cessna 150 in good condition for sale on ebay for $16500 right now.

3) The FAA is actively working on unleaded replacements.

4) Many small planes can already run on unleaded.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#104

Post by fnordfnordfnord »

coryrc wrote: post #76
tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

Small planes still run leaded fuels so the (rich) owners can save money not changing their engines. This is 50% of our current exposure, needlessly! http://www.treehugger.com/aviation/leaded-gas-banned-around-...

Talk to the FAA, who have made it so expensive to upgrade/update anything related to airplanes. There is a marginally viable aftermarket parts market for these engines now, but for a long time owners were strictly limited to OEM, salvage, and remanufactured parts. Also, the number of older GA Airplanes, and antique/warbirds in service are so small, it's got to be nothing compared to the exposure from thirty years ago.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#105

Post by mathattack »

rwhitman wrote: post #28

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

Taking this a step further... The more violent the video games, the more likely we are to take violent criminals off the street, right? I like where you're going with this.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#106

Post by astrodust »

fnordfnordfnord wrote: post #75
marknutter wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's true that welfare makes it less likely for someone to commit a crime then wouldn't that also mean it makes them less likely to get a job?

To some degree. Which do you think most people would prefer? Crime Welfare Gainful Employment

It's always the one with the most reasonable chance of producing the best outcome.

In some environments that's crime. There's no jobs and the welfare can't pay the bills.

In others it's welfare, as there's no jobs and nothing to steal.

Thankfully, most of the time it's gainful employment that comes out on top. Low risk, steady rewards, and significantly more affluent than welfare or prison.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#107

Post by rfnslyr »

mathattack wrote: post #105
rwhitman wrote: post #28

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

Taking this a step further... The more violent the video games, the more likely we are to take violent criminals off the street, right? I like where you're going with this.

No. Definitely not. I deal with the certain "urges" on a daily basis. No matter how much gore there is in a game, no matter how graphic, it will never replace.

Just like holding a brightly coloured object in front of someone doesn't cure depression. Nothing does, it only temporarily sets it aside.

It's a distraction if anything.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#108

Post by deelowe »

coryrc wrote: post #76
tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

Small planes still run leaded fuels so the (rich) owners can save money not changing their engines. This is 50% of our current exposure, needlessly! http://www.treehugger.com/aviation/leaded-gas-banned-around-...

Rich? haha. Rich people don't drive small planes that run on leaded fuel.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#109

Post by lmickh »

DanI-S wrote: post #69
marknutter wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If it's true that welfare makes it less likely for someone to commit a crime then wouldn't that also mean it makes them less likely to get a job?

Absolutely. In fact, many welfare schemes are designed to encourage young people to stay in education rather than dropping out early to work. In any case: since poor, unemployed young men commit crime, and we're never going to see 100% employment, lifting them out of poverty will reduce the impact of crime on everyone else. Intolerable for Ayn Rand; pragmatic for the rest of us.

Poverty rates have actually increased since the introduction of welfare and welfare reform in the US. Long term stability of your proposal aside (see the jump in Disability dependencies that followed the welfare reform), it doesn't match the data that shows a drop in crime over the same time period.
Post reply on HN