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Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

economist.com

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Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#81

Post by cstavish »

bilbo0s wrote: post #54
tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

I don't know if we have to go reaching for lead as the reason. If the effects of chemical substances on the brain are indeed a factor... and yes, they probably are. Then there is probably a far more simple explanation. Drugs. Instead of police being faced with impoverished young men of the 70s, 80s and 90s who are hyped up on cocaine, crack or pcp and trolling for their next hit. They are dealing with the impoverishe…

It would be interesting to see data on the usage of marijuana vs harder drugs over the past 30-40 years.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#82

Post by marknutter »

jseliger wrote: post #66
drcode wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Right, but how much would you get for that smartphone if you brought it to a pawn shop? Assuming you properly reset its data and convince the pawn shop owner it isn't stolen I bet you could get $30 at most. (And if the phone is locked down and the thief can't jailbreak it it essentially has a value $0)

On the other hand, you could probably make a lot selling on Craigslist. I've been selling my family's old phones and computers for years, and the market is robust. Not $500 robust, but two-year-old iPhones go for about $200 (which, probably not coincidentally, is the upgrade price for a new phone).

I sold my iPhone 4s for $500 last December.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#83

Post by theorique »

wilfra wrote: post #56
rwhitman wrote: post #28

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

Nice one, ya probably true. Smartphone and camera ubiquity probably also plays a role. Just as cops know if they try to Rodney King somebody it will be on YouTube an hour later, so are criminals aware there will be a bunch of digital evidence. Support is given to this by the fact that many of the crimes that are rising are things people can't witness you doing (bank fraud, identity theft etc). And it's definitely not…

Increased respect for the 2nd amendment probably plays a role. Private ownership of firearms means that a home invader may get a face full of lead, which has to act as a deterrent for some.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#84

Post by scrabble »

roc wrote: post #33
EGreg wrote: post #15

There is a simple reason: computers and the internet. It makes people more docile and satisfies their urges. Porn for sexual urges, social media for "socializing", google and wikipedia for knowledge etc. That last part also makes everyone more educated. Which also correlates to less (blue collar) crime.

I think computerization, more generally, is a very powerful factor. More electronic transactions, less cash. More surveillance. More cameras. Traceable goods/tracked shipments. Better crime data analysis and police patrol routing. Consumer purchases tending toward electronics that are ever-cheaper and more-powerful. More digital goods, less demand for physical goods. Better media distribution. etc. It may also explai…

I think more cameras seems like a large factor. You don't need to just worry about the location you're at having a camera, but also neighbouring areas and buildings.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#85

Post by happyhappy »

fnordfnordfnord wrote: post #68
bilbo0s wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know if we have to go reaching for lead as the reason. If the effects of chemical substances on the brain are indeed a factor... and yes, they probably are. Then there is probably a far more simple explanation. Drugs. Instead of police being faced with impoverished young men of the 70s, 80s and 90s who are hyped up on cocaine, crack or pcp and trolling for their next hit. They are dealing with the impoverishe…

Did you get your drug folklore/knowledge from "Reefer Madness"? Can you cite any credible evidence that pot use is even remotely associated with violent behavior?

He seems to suggest that pot has a calming effect vs PCP

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#86

Post by omegaham »

DanI-S wrote: post #36

There's no mention of the rise of the welfare state. I'd be surprised if the presence of an economic safety net didn't have an impact on people's willingness to commit crime. In the end, I'm sure the answer is a combination of all these factors. As individuals and as a species, we get better at living as time goes on.

Actually, welfare benefits are much lower than they were under Johnson's Great Society programs. They declared a War on Poverty back in the 60s, and it did about as well as the current War on Drugs. We've actually been cutting welfare benefits for some time, culminating in the reforms done under the Clinton administration.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#87

Post by danso »

rwhitman wrote: post #28

I don't think enough emphasis is put in these studies on the rise of cheap entertainment for bored male youth. Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. Sure policing has…

I think you're underestimating the scope. It's not just video games, but access to an unimaginably large quantity of free video and music...someone's watching all those kitten videos.

And time spent consuming entertainment of any kind is time spent being docile. It's been postulated that the Arab Spring protests were heavily spurred by regular people who, having their Internet cut, had little else to do but express their anger

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#88

Post by bluedino »

pekk wrote: post #67
petercooper wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Teenage boys that normally would have been running around in the streets committing entry level crimes are now glued to their Xbox. The declines in crime also happen to correlate with the ubiquitousness and availability of video games. As they get cheaper and more violent, crime goes down. I really like your argument but I remember how ubiquitous the SNES, Sega Genesis and PS1 were in the 90s. I do wonder what role t…

> I remember how ubiquitous the SNES, Sega Genesis and PS1 were in the 90s They weren't "ubiquitous" for poor kids. For those kids, there was no way they would get their parents to buy us anything for (the 1991 equivalent of) $350 and $85/game. Nobody assumed that upper middle class kids were normally carrying out burglaries...

The poor kids had Nintendo and Sega back then, just like the poor kids have Xbox and PlayStation today.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#90

Post by bluedino »

xradionut wrote: post #37

Here's another factor to consider: Sometimes crime is under reported or covered up or not acted on. I've known of property and other crimes that did not show up in the statistics/annual reports of a particular city. The city in question was/is known for low crime and used that as a selling up point to attract businesses and home buyers. I'd be surprised if this was the only municipality that "fudged" their numbers.

> Sometimes crime is under reported or covered up or not acted on.

This could not be more true where I live, and with police departments shrinking nationwide, I would guess that it's true in other places as well.

Plenty of people are still getting their back doors kicked down while at work, and come home to find their laptops and consoles, and television missing.

You call the police, and they'll show up 4 hours later, and all they really do is put your name on a list. It's basically up to you to go around and search pawn shops and craigslist to find your stuff.

Most people don't even bother to call the cops, and don't bother filing an insurance claim since an LCD TV is $450 and the insurance deductible is $1500, not to mention the rise in rates or risk of getting your coverage dropped.

Reported crime is down. That's about it.

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