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Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

economist.com

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Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#31

Post by lifeisstillgood »

tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

Crime statistics across 100 years is a really complex beast - but lead in the atmosphere is something Occam's razor might suggest is not worth following up.

http://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/olym...

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#33

Post by roc »

EGreg wrote: post #15

There is a simple reason: computers and the internet. It makes people more docile and satisfies their urges. Porn for sexual urges, social media for "socializing", google and wikipedia for knowledge etc. That last part also makes everyone more educated. Which also correlates to less (blue collar) crime.

I think computerization, more generally, is a very powerful factor.

More electronic transactions, less cash. More surveillance. More cameras. Traceable goods/tracked shipments. Better crime data analysis and police patrol routing. Consumer purchases tending toward electronics that are ever-cheaper and more-powerful. More digital goods, less demand for physical goods. Better media distribution. etc.

It may also explain the outliers to the global crime trends: places where computerization of the society (or subset of society) has lagged.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#34

Post by duaneb »

anon1385 wrote: post #25
outworlder wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But lead by itself can't be the major factor behind the crime drop. Countries such as Brazil have banned leaded gas even before the United States, and crime rates are still rising dramatically. It seems clear that other factors play a more important role. Things like police effectiveness, or economics. Edit: reference for lead ban dates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead Crime: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki…

A 1989 ban means people now in their 20s were young children in an environment with use of leaded fuel. This article has some data about lead levels in children in Brazil: http://www.scielosp.org/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1... In Brazil, Teixeira (32) has found that 11% of pipes used in the water distribution systems of 100 schools in São Paulo present lead levels above the limit considered safe by the WHO.…

> just that I don't think your data disproves the theory that lead plays a significant part.

Exactly: (Lead => Crime) =/> (Crime => Lead).

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#35

Post by Amadou »

outworlder wrote: post #12
tmorton wrote: post #5

This article mentions, but undersells, the lead factor. Lead exposure causes cognitive problems in children, especially related to impulse control. The drop in crime correlates very well with lead cleanup. Kevin Drum (a left-leaning US journalist) has been making this argument: http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2013/01/lead-and-crime...

But lead by itself can't be the major factor behind the crime drop. Countries such as Brazil have banned leaded gas even before the United States, and crime rates are still rising dramatically. It seems clear that other factors play a more important role. Things like police effectiveness, or economics. Edit: reference for lead ban dates: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tetraethyllead Crime: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki…

Lead bans in America varied by state, the end date on that wikipedia page is a misleading number in that leaded gasoline use had been substantially reduced starting many years earlier. There was a major drop in leaded gasoline starting in the early 70s, by 1980 it was down over 50% from peak. By 1986 it was down over 90%.

I can't speak to the implementation of lead reduction leading to the outright ban in Brazil, but in the USA the outright ban was more of an after-the-fact recognition of the reality rather than an enforcement action.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#36

Post by DanI-S »

There's no mention of the rise of the welfare state. I'd be surprised if the presence of an economic safety net didn't have an impact on people's willingness to commit crime.

In the end, I'm sure the answer is a combination of all these factors. As individuals and as a species, we get better at living as time goes on.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#37

Post by xradionut »

Here's another factor to consider: Sometimes crime is under reported or covered up or not acted on.

I've known of property and other crimes that did not show up in the statistics/annual reports of a particular city. The city in question was/is known for low crime and used that as a selling up point to attract businesses and home buyers. I'd be surprised if this was the only municipality that "fudged" their numbers.

Re: Falling Crime: Where have all the burglars gone?

#39

Post by rayiner »

EGreg wrote: post #15

There is a simple reason: computers and the internet. It makes people more docile and satisfies their urges. Porn for sexual urges, social media for "socializing", google and wikipedia for knowledge etc. That last part also makes everyone more educated. Which also correlates to less (blue collar) crime.

I don't really think so. Computers and the internet didn't became prevalent for median and lower income people until the 2000's (internet usage was around 30% of the population in 2000, versus 90% today). The drop in crime started in the 1990's.
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