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Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

socialroulette.net

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Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#61

Post by glomph »

WA wrote: post #13

I once read that the chance of Russian Roulette is NOT 1:6 but more like 1:600, since you play with one bullet and the weight of the bullet makes it relatively unlikely that the bullet stops next to the top position in the barrel when you spin it. Don't know if this is true but in the end, it doesn't matter for this stupid game.

People often (well in films at least) spin the barrel out of the gun and then snap it shut at a random time while it is still spinning. That would take your chances back up to 1/6.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#62

Post by nwh »

PaulMest wrote: post #22

An app using Facebook's API cannot delete objects not created by itself (e.g. cannot delete posts or photos). So either this requires you install a browser extension or it's fake.

Looks like a good way to gather authentication keys in that case.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#63

Post by damoncali »

cgag wrote: post #51
lpolovets wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Combining this with the 1 in 600 statistic of the grandparent comment, it seems like ~2000-3000 people played Russian Roulette last year. To me, that's even more astounding than the number of deaths -- although the number of deaths is certainly more tragic.

That's a pretty big leap of faith assumption though. Does anyone have a source or a revolver?

I have spun a revolver with one round in the cylinder. First, you wont wait for it to settle, so it doesn't matter. Second, a cylinder is pretty heavy, so even if you did, it's not that big an effect. Third, there is significant friction between the cylinder and the pin it rotates on, which will prevent it from settling in that manner. The 1:600 number isn't true.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#64

Post by TheSilentMan »

cgag wrote: post #51
lpolovets wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Combining this with the 1 in 600 statistic of the grandparent comment, it seems like ~2000-3000 people played Russian Roulette last year. To me, that's even more astounding than the number of deaths -- although the number of deaths is certainly more tragic.

That's a pretty big leap of faith assumption though. Does anyone have a source or a revolver?

Even if the 1/600 estimate(which I'm skeptical of) is correct, it wouldn't translate to that many people having played, but that many trigger pulls.

I think it's more likely that someone who plays once will play multiple times than it is for someone who has never played to start.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#65

Post by asafira »

gambiting wrote: post #48
madsushi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on if you're re-spinning between turns. Otherwise the first guy might get a 1/600 chance, but everyone afterward has better (or worse?) than 1/6 odds.

Your odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being h…

Ouch, looks like you are taking a lot of slack for this --- don't worry, I didn't realize the protocol for Russian Roulette was not to spin again after the first attempt, either. You're right if they spun it again afterwards, they are right if you just continue through the 6 bullet slots in the revolver.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#66

Post by [deleted] »

damoncali wrote: post #56
gambiting wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being h…

Im not sure you understand how a revolver works.

[deleted]

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#67

Post by EGreg »

cgag wrote: post #53
EGreg wrote: post #52

Gee, looks like this shows how great it is to rely on a platform to build something sustainable. Invalid API Key

Do you have any idea what you just tried to play?

Couldn't actually start because the error appeared when authenticating

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#68

Post by andrewchoi »

olympus wrote: post #14
m4design wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There's a bug in your code, the chance of deleting is less than 1/6.

While the code could use streamlining by only drawing one randint and comparing it to a static number, the probability of orangethirty's way of doing it still gives the correct probability of 1/6. Think of it as two dice, the chance of rolling doubles is 6/36 = 1/6.

I think the point of the post you're responding to is that the code doesn't actually delete anything.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#70

Post by gambiting »

TheSilentMan wrote: post #60
gambiting wrote: post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being h…

If you're not re-spinning between turns you're not doing independent trials like flipping a coin repeatedly.

Sorry, I honestly thought that you would spin before every try, in which case, every test would have the same 1/6 probability of firing.
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