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Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

socialroulette.net

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Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#51

Post by cgag »

lpolovets wrote: post #40
forTheRecord wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Last year alone four people died in the US while playing the game. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/05/dion-von-mays-dies-...

Combining this with the 1 in 600 statistic of the grandparent comment, it seems like ~2000-3000 people played Russian Roulette last year. To me, that's even more astounding than the number of deaths -- although the number of deaths is certainly more tragic.

That's a pretty big leap of faith assumption though. Does anyone have a source or a revolver?

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#54

Post by jergason »

gambiting wrote: post #48
madsushi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on if you're re-spinning between turns. Otherwise the first guy might get a 1/600 chance, but everyone afterward has better (or worse?) than 1/6 odds.

Your odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being h…

That is true with coin flips because the probability of a next coin toss coming up heads or tails is independent[0] of any previous coin tosses. Assuming you aren't spinning between turns, the probabilities are not independent anymore.

0: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independence_(probability_theor...

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#55

Post by emidln »

gambiting wrote: post #48
madsushi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on if you're re-spinning between turns. Otherwise the first guy might get a 1/600 chance, but everyone afterward has better (or worse?) than 1/6 odds.

Your odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being h…

That's not how maths work. You're describing something that works for non-dependent events. Flipping a coin 50 times previously has no bearing on how it will flip the 51st time. The events are said to be independent.

In a six round revolver loaded with a single bullet and then randomized, pulling the trigger advances the next round. The first pull has a 1/6 (or 1/600, whatever) chance of firing. You will fire (assuming no mechanical malfunction and no randomization of the round after each pull) in those first 6 shots with a probability of 1.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#56

Post by damoncali »

gambiting wrote: post #48
madsushi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on if you're re-spinning between turns. Otherwise the first guy might get a 1/600 chance, but everyone afterward has better (or worse?) than 1/6 odds.

Your odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being h…

Im not sure you understand how a revolver works.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#57

Post by hfsktr »

gambiting wrote: post #48
madsushi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on if you're re-spinning between turns. Otherwise the first guy might get a 1/600 chance, but everyone afterward has better (or worse?) than 1/6 odds.

Your odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being h…

I believe he meant that he first person has 1/6 (at least or most...idk) but assuming the next person goes there is one less chamber each time. 1/5, 1/4, etc. until you get to 1/1 at least. There would have to be some change between rounds to change that part.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#58

Post by Aaronneyer »

gambiting wrote: post #48
madsushi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on if you're re-spinning between turns. Otherwise the first guy might get a 1/600 chance, but everyone afterward has better (or worse?) than 1/6 odds.

Your odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being h…

He's saying that when it is first spun, the odds are low because of the weighting explained earlier. After that it is not re-spun and is instead advanced to the next bullet, which does change it, because you now are limiting the number of total possible places for the bullet.

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#59

Post by glomph »

btipling wrote: post #41

The testmonials on that site are complete fabrications. Gawker never said "Social Roulette just rewrote the rules for online gaming." nor has it ever mentioned Social Roulette and the Gruber quote also does not exist, only someone tweeted it at him. Testimonials that are lies are shameful and dishonest.

Quite clearly parody....

Re: Social Roulette has a 1 in 6 chance of deleting your account

#60

Post by TheSilentMan »

gambiting wrote: post #48
madsushi wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Depends on if you're re-spinning between turns. Otherwise the first guy might get a 1/600 chance, but everyone afterward has better (or worse?) than 1/6 odds.

Your odds never change, this is not how maths work. It's always 1/6, just like the odds of getting heads/tails in a coin flip is ALWAYS 1/2 no matter how many times you flipped already. Odds of receiving a certain outcome X number of times in a row can change,but the odds of a single event never,never,never do. Even if you flip a coin 10000 and got tails 10000 times, your 10001 flip also has a 50/50 chance of being h…

If you're not re-spinning between turns you're not doing independent trials like flipping a coin repeatedly.
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