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“The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

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Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#201
post #165
post #74

Earlier quoted context omitted.

$1B is roughly the GAAP losses for TSLA since they went public. I think that in order to resell ZEV credits more than 13% of a manufacturer's cars must be electric, which is not true of any other luxury manufacturer.

That doesn't add up with this: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=tsla+earnings But, that may not be GAAP. Where did you find that total?

Wolfram Alpha is only showing you last year's losses, not the integral over all years.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#202
post #8

There's something that's been bothering me about this whole thing. Not the Tesla, but the rest of the market. Is that it? Is it that easy? A guy who made his money selling a phonebook and then an online payment processor can read a few books, hire a few people out of the same industry he's disrupting and build a goddamn amazing car (electric or not)? Why can't the existing industry do this? Why all the mediocre produ…

I think Musk makes a lot of things look easy but I'm not so sure they are. Here's an example where it was not easy and ended in failure: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1948_Tucker_Sedan

A more modern example of failure: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aptera_Motors

But examples like Tesla and Microsoft and Google and Facebook and so on are all testaments to the power of startups. It's quite possible to disrupt large businesses (and become one) with a small foundation, I just wouldn't call it easy. I think Musk himself has said on occasion that Tesla has been very close to failure at least a few times.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The real question to me is why are [Apple] not doing anything half as cool as what Musk has done in the past 10 years. I don't understand: what hasn't Apple done that isn't "half as cool"? Clearly, the iPad alone is a significant product that has literally changed the computing industry.

Today, the iPhone IS the Personal Computer. If that's not massive, category-changing, ecosystem-disrupting, change, then I don't know what is - especially since it reverberates across once-unrelated markets like GPS, photography, cartography, and...well, pretty much anything for which there's now an app. Jesus, even the word "app" is new.

The word "app" (though more frequently pluralized) dates at least to the mid 1990s. How new do you mean?

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Cool," perhaps, but not even vaguely innovative. It doesn't change any business models, it doesn't bypass anything or make any real changes , it's just a big iPhone (or, really, an iPod Touch). It hasn't "changed the computing industry." It's introduced a new line of the same products we had before. "Let's make a bigger one" was a really great idea, but it's not really in the same league.

People use iPads all the time now in situations they previously wouldn't have used a computing device. I know of plenty of companies that have bought one just to easily demo stuff or to be able to do stuff in the field that they wouldn't have done earlier. The iPad came out to wide acclaim because they got it right and showed it was possible. So many nay sayers saying even 6 months after release that it wouldn't be p…

What portable computing market, previously dominated by Palm, WinCE, etc. create, exactly?

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#205
post #8

There's something that's been bothering me about this whole thing. Not the Tesla, but the rest of the market. Is that it? Is it that easy? A guy who made his money selling a phonebook and then an online payment processor can read a few books, hire a few people out of the same industry he's disrupting and build a goddamn amazing car (electric or not)? Why can't the existing industry do this? Why all the mediocre produ…

"Why can't the existing industry do this?"

Because they can make massive profits with the way things are now. The existing industry is the last place you should be looking for change. Their job is to get a position and embed themselves in that position, not innovate.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#206
post #8

There's something that's been bothering me about this whole thing. Not the Tesla, but the rest of the market. Is that it? Is it that easy? A guy who made his money selling a phonebook and then an online payment processor can read a few books, hire a few people out of the same industry he's disrupting and build a goddamn amazing car (electric or not)? Why can't the existing industry do this? Why all the mediocre produ…

It's probably a bit like Apple under Steve Jobs. They have one guy at the top who gets to say "no" a lot and is a real good "customer" yardstick.

Other car companies design most cars by committee and focus group.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#207
post #201
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That doesn't add up with this: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=tsla+earnings But, that may not be GAAP. Where did you find that total?

Wolfram Alpha is only showing you last year's losses, not the integral over all years.

I went by the average it gives weighted to the time range of the IPO (because the parent said since the IPO). But one-billion is correct if you count before the IPO (which the guy who first brought up the one-billion number was talking about).

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#208

I just drove a Tesla Model S last weekend. Here are my perceptions, as I was SUPER curious about the car before I drove it: Pros: 1) The drive is AMAZING. The car is quiet, it accelerates amazingly, and the regenerative braking is really cool. 2) It feels like the future. The huge computer screen is cool (but distracting, you can go on the internet at anytime). 3) The ability to get software updates all the time is c…

That's not a con for the car, that's a con for living in a condo. The list of things that are impractical for someone living in a condo building could fill a warehouse.

No. That's a con for the car.

As the population of the world increases housing density will also increase. Hence it is important that Tesla find a way to accommodate people like condos as well as people who rent.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#209
post #8

There's something that's been bothering me about this whole thing. Not the Tesla, but the rest of the market. Is that it? Is it that easy? A guy who made his money selling a phonebook and then an online payment processor can read a few books, hire a few people out of the same industry he's disrupting and build a goddamn amazing car (electric or not)? Why can't the existing industry do this? Why all the mediocre produ…

1. Complexity

2. Stupidity

3. Money

4. Because the US is too fiercely independent and hardheaded to adopt the principles of this guy: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W._Edwards_Deming

Overall, I think Musk is just a really fucking smart guy. He happened to get a lot of money, and that doesn't usually happen to the smart people; it usually happens to the people who know how to grab at money, which as it turns out is not a remarkable skill and doesn't correlate too highly with future success. Whether you like the guy or not, Elon Musk is a dreamer, and has big ideas, and the capital to realize them. That's a damn rare thing, and we're lucky for it.

If you're one of those people, for pete's sake go do something big. Everyone else is pretty stupid, and nearly everything can be done better.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#210
post #192
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're only focusing on the "electric car" part. By all accounts, the rest of the car is an amazing package, even without the electric motor. I think the question is why was Tesla able to push the Model S so far ahead of the current industry in those other respects?

"You're only focusing on the "electric car" part. By all accounts, the rest of the car is an amazing package, even without the electric motor. I think the question is why was Tesla able to push the Model S so far ahead of the current industry in those other respects?" This cannot be overstated. I don't like a lot of the Tesla S design - both interior and exterior. Further, my use case(s) don't necessarily lend themse…

It's worth nothing that the only reason they're able to add that feature is because they don't need space for a gas engine and the associated tanks and parts.
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