Live data from Hacker News

Bitcoin falls from $266

data.mtgox.com

311–320 of 505 posts

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#311
post #287

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You explained exactly what the intrinsic value of the currency is: the usefulness of the currency itself. BTCs have value over turds for use as a currency for many obvious reasons. The amount of electricity it takes to create that currency can perhaps be seen as a price floor, which is perhaps corollary to the intrinsic value, but is not the intrinsic value itself. So if something improbable or drastic happened tomor…

> The amount of electricity it takes to create that currency can perhaps be seen as a price floor, which is perhaps corollary to the intrinsic value, but is not the intrinsic value itself. Cost of production should be a price ceiling , not floor: if I can make it for $X, why would I buy it for $Y >> $X? Edited: To hopefully head off further misunderstandings, by "should" here I mean "it makes the most sense to expect…

There's also the cost of setting it all up, the time in learning the tech involved or hiring those who do. If it cost you $X to produce, why would you sell it to me for less than $X? You'd be losing money on the production side.

The lower bound ought to be at least the cost to the miner that produced the new bitcoin (when they try and sell it or use it in the market).

The upper bound is essentially nonexistent. If I have $3000 to invest in bitcoin, what is the possibility of me getting a decent return on $3000 worth of mining hardware? Vs (based on the recent explosive growth) spend $3000 on BTC directly at $200 a piece and you have 15BTC. If it continues to generally rise in value against the dollar a portion of that can be turned back into USD later and spent on a more worthwhile rig, or just used in the BTC economy itself (to the extent that it exists).

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#312
post #276
post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> paranoia MtGox has said they were subject to DDoS attacks: https://twitter.com/MagicalTux/status/317423311174909954 > If you looked at the log plot[2], it still looked exponential! Trying to divine future price movement from looking at a graph has been proven definitively, repeatedly to be foolish.

Divining that a price that is rising in a superexponential manner will be going down sometime soon is one of the least fooling things one can do when looking at a graph.

Are we really having a serious conversation on divination on HN?

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#313
post #305
post #276

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Divining that a price that is rising in a superexponential manner will be going down sometime soon is one of the least fooling things one can do when looking at a graph.

You are empirically wrong. Please, quantify your idea and go backtest it on the stock market. The efficient-market hypothesis does not have an asterisk excluding cryptocurrencies.

the efficient market is dead and always has been.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#314

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'd say that's use-value. Intrinsic implies it's not relative to each person, which clearly isn't true in that case (e.g., I could be allergic to apples, then the value would be nil to me).

Fine, not water. Apples. Are you allergic to water?

What if I'm not thirsty? What if I have plenty of water already? What if I'm trying to commit suicide by not drinking water?

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#315
post #17

I'm interested in the price of Bitcoin, but we don't need these daily submissions. If you're interested in following the price, I suggest these links: - https://bitcoinity.org/markets - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD - http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ If you're interested in talking about the price, try #bitcoin-pricetalk on Freenode.

I like this prettier and easier to read interface: http://realtimebitcoin.info/ I've been watching it drop from $200 to $157 over the last hour or so.

http://bitcoin-analytics.com/#charts

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#316
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> my understanding of intrinsic value is essentially that it is the value of an item when the market value is zero That seems like a fairly artificial mental exercise. Why would market value be zero if intrinsic value is greater than zero? I suppose the only situations would be if a good has a unique property that can provide utility to you but no one else, like a food that for some reason only provides nutrients for…

I think the real problem is with the metaphysical implications inherent in the word "intrinsic." There it is, folks. We aren't talking about a simple concept, we are talking about the metaphysical and the deeper implications of words. What is a "word", anyway? Let's take a moment to consider.

No, let's not at all consider the meaning of words, because the meaning of words is of no importance in a discussion.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#317
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any evidence at all of a coordinated attack against Bitcoin, or is this just an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory?

I think there's a lot of people who bought in during the last week or two that really want it to turn out to be an "attack". I haven't seen any actual stats or indication that that's actually the case, though. Likewise, Mt. Gox made mention of "Being DDOS'd" at certain points, but I'm a little skeptical of the claim given that their own charts show a huge jump in trade volume at around the same time. So no, there's n…

Most likely it is being ddossed... by people trying to sell, but that's just my opinion.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#318
This is amazing timing because I received a text message from my mother roughly 3 hours ago wondering if I mine bitcoin and if it is something she should look into.

If you ever wanted evidence that this was a bubble driven by speculation look no further than how closely it resembles the dotcom bubble, right up to Joe and Jane Mainstreet looking to get involved right as the whole thing crashes down.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#319
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the contrary this is just the most pronounced in a series of recent coordinated DDOS / aggressive selling attacks designed to (successfully) inspire panic. The attackers unload their bitcoin before the price gets smashed and presumably buy it all back again from frightened speculators. If anything it might be a positive sign for bitcoin that the attackers are keen to acquire it! On another note, mtgox.com the main…

> If real markets could get 1 hour behind in transaction processing because of a spike in volume it would be the end of capitalism as we know it. The Facebook IPO was pretty damn similar and didn't end capitalism as we know it :)

It is hyperbole of course. Capitalism worked fine before split second trade resolution, but that happening in today's markets is a pretty big deal because a lot of people have gotten used to it. Also the Facebook IPO was isolated and shook/annoyed a lot of people it seemed. If that kind of thing happened regularly outside of huge IPOs I think NYSE would be in pretty bad shape.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#320
post #152

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Assuming that bit-coin is not passed over for a more useful digital currency at which point the network fails and the total value of all bit-coins falls to 0.

I wonder if the value would ever fall to precisely zero. Mightn't they still have value as a novelty or collector's item? Like, "Hey, a Bitcoin! I remember those... sure, I'll buy one, just to say I have one." It's unfortunate that you couldn't mount it in a decorative frame, though.

It will never fall to zero, I'll personally buy every last one of them at $0.0001 each.
Post reply on HN