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Bitcoin falls from $266

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Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#211
post #135

Evidently, many hoarders/speculators decided to cash out at once -- much like the audience in a movie theater would try to go through the exit door at the same time if someone were to yell "fire!" The naive souls who recently bought bitcoins to make a 'quick buck' are in for a rude surprise. In the short run, no one knows how Bitcoin's price will fluctuate. In the long run, however, if Bitcoin continues to work as in…

It's until one-two major governments decides to make it illegal to deal in bit-coins that it's price will drop to zero.

It doesn't matter if they can't enforce it 100% (or even 1%). What matters is that it will kill almost all opportunities to use it as regular money for legitimate purchases by major companies etc in the future. And that it could also land your ass in jail (with ISP monitoring and such being what it is).

Why would a government do that? For one, because they don't like money systems they can not control. Second because they would argue it can be used for money laundering and such.

Time and again it has been proven that you cannot solve social issues with technology. For example a solution for private communication exists: cryptography. And yet, the government can limit what kind of cryptography you can use in your app or export, etc. And they can even throw your ass in jail if you have an encrypted file and you don't hand them the key. You have to go all the more deeper, and even that doesn't solve the issue of your dumb cousin exposing your secret in his plain text email to you.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#212
post #187
post #179

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Do you have any evidence at all of a coordinated attack against Bitcoin, or is this just an unsubstantiated conspiracy theory?

Don't the DDoS attacks count as evidence?

Depends on whether they're able to distinguish between a DDoS and a good old fashioned bank run.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#213
post #169

Earlier quoted context omitted.

On the contrary this is just the most pronounced in a series of recent coordinated DDOS / aggressive selling attacks designed to (successfully) inspire panic. The attackers unload their bitcoin before the price gets smashed and presumably buy it all back again from frightened speculators. If anything it might be a positive sign for bitcoin that the attackers are keen to acquire it! On another note, mtgox.com the main…

> On the contrary this is just the most pronounced in a series of recent coordinated DDOS / aggressive selling attacks designed to (successfully) inspire panic. The bitcointalk forums and /r/bitcoin are full of paranoia like this. After months of stress trying to divine market patterns, people see market manipulation and conspiracies everywhere. The simple truth is that there was an agressive bubble. The doubling per…

Why do you think I'm paranoid? It's my best guess. Despite my tender years I have seen many speculative bubbles in lots of asset classes and have traded them on a private and professional basis.

I agree there are plenty of people in bitcoin ready to be 'the greater fool' [1] but that's only if it fails... they will be self assured visionaries otherwise...

[1] http://www.amazon.co.uk/Devil-Take-Hindmost-Financial-Specul...

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#214
Basically this is watching a whole lot of people getting into FX game without even knowing they're in the FX game or even know about FX. I wonder if senior FX sharks sniffed blood and gamed bitcoin into this. My 2c says it's gamed exactly by FX pros, that's why I'm not into it.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#215
post #135

Evidently, many hoarders/speculators decided to cash out at once -- much like the audience in a movie theater would try to go through the exit door at the same time if someone were to yell "fire!" The naive souls who recently bought bitcoins to make a 'quick buck' are in for a rude surprise. In the short run, no one knows how Bitcoin's price will fluctuate. In the long run, however, if Bitcoin continues to work as in…

It's until one-two major governments decides to make it illegal to deal in bit-coins that it's price will drop to zero. It doesn't matter if they can't enforce it 100% (or even 1%). What matters is that it will kill almost all opportunities to use it as regular money for legitimate purchases by major companies etc in the future. And that it could also land your ass in jail (with ISP monitoring and such being what it…

That will keep it down, but never zero (because of that). There's a real value to the illicit transactions. Even if it's merely a way to exchange dollars into something like silk road points, that's worth enough to enough people to keep it at some non zero value.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#216
post #184

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No, there aren't downvotes. If 20% of users really love something, and 80% hate it (assuming they only use flagging for spam) it will still keep making the top page.

The guidelines suggest that people flag for spam or off-topic: > Please don't submit comments complaining that a submission is inappropriate for the site. If you think something is spam or offtopic, flag it by going to its page and clicking on the "flag" link. (Not all users will see this; there is a karma threshold.) If you flag something, please don't also comment that you did. Some people (but not me) flag all Bit…

I lost my flagging rights without further notice when I thought I was flagging well, so be careful.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My Econ 101 understanding is that the value of USD is not primarily due to taxes, i.e. if the government stopped collecting taxes (or started forcing people to pay taxes in gold or Euros) the value of the dollar would not tank. Instead, we're in a Nash equilibrium where we're all accepting dollars as a means of exchange and it would be costly and have little benefit for individuals to defect. The intrinsic value of t…

correct in a sense- the US dollar is backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government, nothing more. Would I still have that faith in the US $ if the government did not collect taxes / did not seem like a stable entity? Probably not, but your point is still valid

> the US dollar is backed by the full faith and credit of the US Government

Huh? What does this mean? This phrase can be applied to government bond ("The US gov't promises to pay you back") or to FDIC insurance ("The US gov't promises to refund your money if your bank closes"). But it doesn't have any meaning for dollars, unless it were to mean that the gov't would exchange it for gold, which of course is false.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#218
post #17

I'm interested in the price of Bitcoin, but we don't need these daily submissions. If you're interested in following the price, I suggest these links: - https://bitcoinity.org/markets - http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD - http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/ If you're interested in talking about the price, try #bitcoin-pricetalk on Freenode.

This is HUGE news on Bitcoin - nothing like this has ever happened in it's history. Market went from $250 to $110 in 5 hours. MtGox was down for 30 minutes today. Trading lag was 600 seconds for orders placed at market prices. April 10th, 2013 may be the day that will be remember for the next 20 years as the day that Bitcoin crashed and either (A) never recovered or (B) kept progressing after an incredible Blip. Defi…

> Definitely HN fodder today.

Maybe, but my own unscientific, vague sense is that I've been seeing multiple bitcoin related submissions to HN every day for quite some time now. At this stage all of the arguments have been hashed and rehashed (ho ho) in the comment threads to the extent that they're getting pretty repetitive and tedious (especially since so many of them are so political).

So, sure, it was marginally interesting a few days ago that bitcoin was up a significant amount so we had multiple articles about that, and then it was up the next day too so we had some articles, and then there were opinion pieces about why it was a bad idea / good idea, none of which really said anything much new, then there were columns about how it was becoming mainstream (which was obvious if you'd been following all the bitcoin startups that also get posted to HN), then today we find it's down an unusual amount. Surely you can see how this is becoming a little grating even for someone who started out with an interest in the topic.

Re: Bitcoin falls from $266

#219
So I am wondering.

Perhaps Bitcoins volatility which seems to potentially be huge is a great win for people who study economics and bubbles?

I am aware there are several difference between a crypto currency like bitcoin and the rest of the currencies out there but for a layman like me it seems like it's a perfect tool for research?

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