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Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

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Re: Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

#51

Post by peteforde »

rurounijones wrote: post #5
kristofferR wrote: post #3

"Also being announced today is that the small battery option for the Model S will not enter production, due to lack of demand. Only four percent of customers chose the 40 kWh battery pack, which is not enough to justify production of that version. ... The customers who ordered this option will instead receive the 60 kWh pack, but range will be software limited to 40 kWh" Enter the range extending hacks!

Why not just stop sales of the 40kWh model, say "We are going to be nice and just upgrade them to 60kWh free of charge" and be done with it. Sure, some people who paid for the 60kWh packs will be annoyed paying "extra" for it but is that really such a concern that you have to start dicking about with what amounts to basically battery DRM? [EDIT] As someone mentioned below, if 40kWh models have already shipped then re…

My understanding is that the 40kWh models haven't been shipped yet.

Re: Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

#52

Post by peteforde »

taligent wrote: post #48
teawithcarl wrote: post #4

Tesla is now running at $1.5 billion+ annually, and growing.

It is ? For 2012 they had revenue of $413 million at a loss of $396 million.

The reoccurring theme in your comments amounts to: "Tesla sucks!"

What's your beef? Seriously curious.

Re: Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

#53

Post by revelation »

marshray wrote: post #50
revelation wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are stranded, then because the battery ran out of juice, DRM or not, since obviously how they are going to implement this is by limiting the maximum charge percentage [1]. Even an on the spot upgrade can't put more juice into the pack. [1]: very easy to do in software and batteries last longer when they are not charged to full capacity. If they would charge over 40kWh, people would pay for electricity that the…

I don't think that's an obvious conclusion at all. Many rechargeable battery chemistries experience terrible failures if they are not fully charged or fully discharged on a regular basis. Even still, as a consumer I find it offensive when the same resources are consumed to produce something and then crippled just to sell at a lower price. It's a sign of market inefficiency. For pure software, it's different because t…

By default, the Tesla Model S will never fully charge the battery, no matter what the capacity. You can tell it do this by doing a "range charge", but Tesla warns that doing this regularly will negatively impact the longevity of the pack. Full charge also has other problem, e.g. regen doesn't work anymore since the battery is too full.

If I'm to believe reports from 60kWh and 85kWh owners, the cars weigh essentially the same. It's not clear what they do with the smaller battery packs, but it doesn't seem to have much effect on weight.

If you read the news release, the 60kWh pack actually has better acceleration than the (theorethical) 40kWh pack.

I'm not sure I agree on market inefficiency, it's maybe inefficient, but it is a completely rational decision. Presumably, the cost to develop a 40kWh pack was higher than to just equip all 40kWh preorders with 60kWh packs.

Re: Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

#54

Post by tdiggity »

jhenkens wrote: post #9

I would love to know how many Model S have been sold within 25 miles of Palo Alto, CA. Driving around Menlo Park/Palo Alto/Atherton/Woodside, one can easily see 10 Model S within an hour - it is truly unreal. It's almost at the point where buying a Model S is no longer trend setting, but instead following a trend.

You don't see nearly as many in the south bay (San Jose, Milpitas, Santa Clara). You'll see them in Santana Row, but only because a showroom is there and they offer reserved parking for Teslas (5 spots).

Re: Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

#55

Post by peteforde »

marshray wrote: post #50
revelation wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you are stranded, then because the battery ran out of juice, DRM or not, since obviously how they are going to implement this is by limiting the maximum charge percentage [1]. Even an on the spot upgrade can't put more juice into the pack. [1]: very easy to do in software and batteries last longer when they are not charged to full capacity. If they would charge over 40kWh, people would pay for electricity that the…

I don't think that's an obvious conclusion at all. Many rechargeable battery chemistries experience terrible failures if they are not fully charged or fully discharged on a regular basis. Even still, as a consumer I find it offensive when the same resources are consumed to produce something and then crippled just to sell at a lower price. It's a sign of market inefficiency. For pure software, it's different because t…

Do you lose sleep over cable/satellite channels that could be available if only you paid for them?

Do you yell at your network hub because it's capable of 150M down but you've only paid for 30?

Do you freak out when you see people in VIP areas at events that you've paid general admission to enter?

Tesla is being smart by constraining the number of products that they have to produce. Removing complexity directly translates to cost savings which go straight to the company's bottom line. It also helps eliminate decisions that a potential customer has to make.

I'm willing to bet that a much higher percentage of 40KWh customers will convert to 60KWh now that they have the capability built in. It's smart no matter how you look at it.

Re: Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

#56

Post by rurounijones »

jpxxx wrote: post #8
rurounijones wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why not just stop sales of the 40kWh model, say "We are going to be nice and just upgrade them to 60kWh free of charge" and be done with it. Sure, some people who paid for the 60kWh packs will be annoyed paying "extra" for it but is that really such a concern that you have to start dicking about with what amounts to basically battery DRM? [EDIT] As someone mentioned below, if 40kWh models have already shipped then re…

Because that'd require hauling in 200 vehicles to replace a $10,000 battery pack while tying up maintenance bays, disrupting production to source and ship 60kWh packs, and incur a multi-million dollar charge on a company that is barely breaking even. (edit: Also, rich people tend to be of a type that go absolutely apeshit when they feel they've been cheated, meta-cheated, vapor-cheated or insufficiently cheated by ha…

Based on comments below, no 40kWh models have shipped which eliminates the first point.

Second point still stands but I reckon it would still be worth it.

Re: Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

#57

Post by peteforde »

iEricAllen wrote: post #25

I've never believed that Tesla had a viable product. In fact, Electric vehicles make very little sense and are far less "green" than most consumers perceive them to be. It's sad that people tend to believe whatever marketers tell them... Check out this article... By far the most comprehensive analysis on "green" cars so far. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732412850457834...

What definition of viable are you working with?

EVs make a certain type of person squirm, and I am really interested to try and understand why that is.

Re: Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

#58

Post by jmspring »

rgbrenner wrote: post #37
iEricAllen wrote: post #25

I've never believed that Tesla had a viable product. In fact, Electric vehicles make very little sense and are far less "green" than most consumers perceive them to be. It's sad that people tend to believe whatever marketers tell them... Check out this article... By far the most comprehensive analysis on "green" cars so far. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732412850457834...

"If a typical electric car is driven 50,000 miles over its lifetime ..." Is this guy serious? The average car is driven 13.5k miles/year. So 50k is 3.7 years. Why would anyone use a ridiculously low number unless they were just trying to prove a point they already made up their mind on?

Typical miles driven by a car...

Two car household here --

46mo/old Prius - about 52k miles 37mo/old Jetta TDI - about 54k miles

Since we are both solo-commuters, this is fairly typical for the bay area. Probably in the realm measured, but ... a 50k lifetime is a bit of a joke.

Re: Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

#59

Post by rgbrenner »

rgbrenner wrote: post #37
iEricAllen wrote: post #25

I've never believed that Tesla had a viable product. In fact, Electric vehicles make very little sense and are far less "green" than most consumers perceive them to be. It's sad that people tend to believe whatever marketers tell them... Check out this article... By far the most comprehensive analysis on "green" cars so far. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732412850457834...

"If a typical electric car is driven 50,000 miles over its lifetime ..." Is this guy serious? The average car is driven 13.5k miles/year. So 50k is 3.7 years. Why would anyone use a ridiculously low number unless they were just trying to prove a point they already made up their mind on?

"The average car on the road is about 11 years old, and the average car is driven about 15,000 miles per year. Multiply those figures together and you’ve got a fairly average car with something like 165,000 miles on it"

http://business.time.com/2012/03/20/what-you-only-have-100k-...

And that's AVERAGE of cars still being driven

Re: Tesla Model S Sales Exceed Target

#60

Post by marshray »

peteforde wrote: post #55
marshray wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think that's an obvious conclusion at all. Many rechargeable battery chemistries experience terrible failures if they are not fully charged or fully discharged on a regular basis. Even still, as a consumer I find it offensive when the same resources are consumed to produce something and then crippled just to sell at a lower price. It's a sign of market inefficiency. For pure software, it's different because t…

Do you lose sleep over cable/satellite channels that could be available if only you paid for them? Do you yell at your network hub because it's capable of 150M down but you've only paid for 30? Do you freak out when you see people in VIP areas at events that you've paid general admission to enter? Tesla is being smart by constraining the number of products that they have to produce. Removing complexity directly trans…

> Do you lose sleep over cable/satellite channels that could be available if only you paid for them?

No. I decided cable TV wasn't a good value and canceled it years ago.

> Do you yell at your network hub because it's capable of 150M down but you've only paid for 30?

No. My switch is 1 Gb.

> Do you freak out when you see people in VIP areas at events that you've paid general admission to enter?

No.

Would you buy a car that had 250 kg of lead weights bolted into the frame such that you had to pay the car dealers extra to remove it?

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