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Ten predictions (2004)

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Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#151

Post by ryanbrunner »

SonicSoul wrote: post #128
RyanMcGreal wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. JSON is basically XML with 50% less bullshit. It does less but it does it so much more elegantly than XML - and has the further benefit of a syntax similar to that of structured data in such languages as Javascript (duh), Python and Ruby - that it was a shoo-in to squeeze XML out of most non-enterprise uses, at least on the data transfer forma…

> object-relational mapping has gotten vastly better than it was in 2004 Maybe so, but it still seems like it's only good for prototyping. With each new version of ORM i get excited and try to implement it, but sooner or later it comes to bite me in the ass, and long term maintenance becomes more painful than not using ORM with all the low level hacks that need to be added and tricky management of the mapping config.

I think the key difference, at least among most developers I work with, is that ORM has evolved from a complete abstraction of all relational querying, into more of a productivity tool that can be useful in certain circumstances.

The differences between something like Hibernate and something like ActiveRecord is pretty vast, at least in terms of usage, and I think one of the key learnings we've made since 2004 is that it's not practical or feasible to treat ORM as a silver bullet.

Honestly, no one should be surprised that ORM isn't a silver bullet. NoSQL isn't either - there's plenty of caveats that should be considered before deciding on using NoSQL. I'd still argue that about 80% of database interactions can be solved by a decent ORM. Anything that lets me ignore 80% of my trivial problems and focus on the 20% that's actually challenging is a net win in my book.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#152

Post by edu222 »

RyanMcGreal wrote: post #68
friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

> We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. JSON is basically XML with 50% less bullshit. It does less but it does it so much more elegantly than XML - and has the further benefit of a syntax similar to that of structured data in such languages as Javascript (duh), Python and Ruby - that it was a shoo-in to squeeze XML out of most non-enterprise uses, at least on the data transfer forma…

Have you tried Django's ORM? From what I understand its not perfect, but for the most part it really rocks.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#153

Post by mratzloff »

Wilya wrote: post #54
ghshephard wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"6. A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. This is such a vague prediction does not even worth mentioning." This is one he nailed - Facebook.

You could repeat the same prediction every year, and you'd probably be right everytime.

Read the details of the prediction. It sounds to me like he's describing a post-apps API Facebook. Not in so many words; I doubt he was thinking along those exact lines. But his prediction doesn't cover MySpace or Twitter or other social sites quite as well, while he describes Facebook to a T.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#154

Post by [deleted] »

Guillaume86 wrote: post #103
franze wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) in 2020 most programmers will still be average 2) in 2020 browsers will support a multitude of programming languages natively, most of them functional 3) in 2020 linkedin will be dead 4) in 2020 there will be a huge governmental campaign to teach kids programming, starting in pre-school 5) in 2020 there will be an SVG that is to SVG what HTML5 was to XHTML 6) in 2020 TV will still be mostly watched in 2D 7) in 202…

2) is very optimistic (I wouldn't bet a dollar on it) 8) I'm not sure what you mean with that one, what kind of alternative? (given you seem to exclude transpilers/preprocessors)

[deleted]

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#155

Post by [deleted] »

Guillaume86 wrote: post #103
franze wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) in 2020 most programmers will still be average 2) in 2020 browsers will support a multitude of programming languages natively, most of them functional 3) in 2020 linkedin will be dead 4) in 2020 there will be a huge governmental campaign to teach kids programming, starting in pre-school 5) in 2020 there will be an SVG that is to SVG what HTML5 was to XHTML 6) in 2020 TV will still be mostly watched in 2D 7) in 202…

2) is very optimistic (I wouldn't bet a dollar on it) 8) I'm not sure what you mean with that one, what kind of alternative? (given you seem to exclude transpilers/preprocessors)

[deleted]

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#156

Post by franze »

Guillaume86 wrote: post #103
franze wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) in 2020 most programmers will still be average 2) in 2020 browsers will support a multitude of programming languages natively, most of them functional 3) in 2020 linkedin will be dead 4) in 2020 there will be a huge governmental campaign to teach kids programming, starting in pre-school 5) in 2020 there will be an SVG that is to SVG what HTML5 was to XHTML 6) in 2020 TV will still be mostly watched in 2D 7) in 202…

2) is very optimistic (I wouldn't bet a dollar on it) 8) I'm not sure what you mean with that one, what kind of alternative? (given you seem to exclude transpilers/preprocessors)

nr 8) is a manifestation of my wish that there must be something better "out there", i don't know what it will be.

some of the best frontenders i know rant about CSS regularly (and with a passion), and some already started dreaming of something better. lets hope they fix it until 2020. (7 years from undefined dream to market, should be possible)

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#157

Post by sophacles »

Nursie wrote: post #148
namdnay wrote: post #143

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Exactly, in fact I'd say there's a lot more multithreading going on today, it's just that it's hidden behind whatever JEE framework people are using. This isn't a bad thing, enterprise developers (i.e. 90% of us) shouldn't have to worry about mutexes any more than they have to worry about interrupts or sorting algorithms.

Out of interest, how does an enterprise developer (whatever that means) ensure consistency of data and good performance, the two competing aims of a decent mutex/lock strategy? Is it taken on trust that someone else handles this, and therefore hidden in 'safe' data structures or... ?

One place you see a lot of good "under the covers" stuff going on is with .Net 4.5. The task parallel stuff they have is really decent. You still have to think a little bit about concurrency issues, but if you are careful to use their thread safe structures, they have taken care of a lot of the harder parts for you. It is a neat model that just plays out pretty nicely.

Another cool product is Disruptor - they have figured out a good, fast way to do message passing that minimizes the need for concurrent data structures between worker threads. (Provided of course you can model your app in that way). Under the hood, they have some crazy dep memory barrier based stuff, but for most of the programmers on a team, thinking about that stuff is just not needed. (as an aside, I think if Beautiful Code 2 was being written, I think Disruptor should be included, that source code is downright inspiring.)

The point being, once you have a good, trusted and vetted set of primitives, and are willing to put a little effort into working in a paradigm someone else sets, you get a lot of benefit. This is no different than using RoR or Django instead of rolling your own web framework.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#158

Post by sophacles »

StevenXC wrote: post #123
stinky613 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you were in college in 2004 it was pretty unavoidable

But how many of us thought it would become proliferous as a global community? At the time it was locked down to each college (you had to have an @college.edu address to even register), and it wasn't until 2005 or 06 until high school kids got access, and then their parents, and Facebook tore down the dividers of their walled gardens. Then again maybe he was just a big fan of his MySpace page at the time.

In mid-2006 I was hearing about facebook, and it was being described as: "kinda like myspace, but for college kids - something universities can buy into and keep the creepers[1] out".

[1] Creepers being defined as people who just trolled social networks looking for friends/sex/whatever, that was new and terrifying to a lot of people then.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#159

Post by vacri »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #36
friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

> We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Thank god we dodged that bullet. I'm just glad people see XML for what it really is (useful, but not that useful). > Not really. We are already in the multicore age, and it will only get moreticore. The problem is multi-threaded has never really took off, even with all the cores we have today. There is still no silverbullet to harnessing parallelism. > Apple's lap…

A tautology if I ever heard one.

RTFA

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#160

Post by juan_juarez »

ghshephard wrote: post #38
friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

"6. A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. This is such a vague prediction does not even worth mentioning." This is one he nailed - Facebook.

I'm surprised that he missed MySpace which was active & growing at the time.
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