# 6,9,10 are ok. Other predictions failed
Ten predictions (2004)
141–150 of 324 posts
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#142This really is an impressive display of foresight. It appears that all the reading Steve mentioned doing paid off. The act of discussing his predictions here on HN is foretold in prediction #6. And those that were off, were still pretty warm.
Funny, HackerNews is what came to my mind for that point. I assumed by 'you and I' he meant developers/entrepreneurs/hackers. If he was in fact referring to the mainstream, then Twitter would be another great example.
The ambiguity is helping that prediction quiet a bit, wouldn't you say?
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#143Earlier quoted context omitted.
> The problem is multi-threaded has never really took off, even with all the cores we have today. There is still no silverbullet to harnessing parallelism. MMmmm..... yeah it has. I'll agree on the silver bullet, but I don't think they need one. Threads are all over the place, and easier than ever to use. They do require intelligence to use well, and people to think about things like locking strategies, but they real…
I really don't see threads being used explicitly more today then they were 10 years ago. The number of programmers who are proficient in dealing with locks, semaphores, etc...doesn't seem to have grown much (perhaps not outpacing the overall rate). If anything, we have a lot more code these days that is not explicitly multi-threaded but is implicitly concurrent in some other way that may or may not use threads under…
Exactly, in fact I'd say there's a lot more multithreading going on today, it's just that it's hidden behind whatever JEE framework people are using. This isn't a bad thing, enterprise developers (i.e. 90% of us) shouldn't have to worry about mutexes any more than they have to worry about interrupts or sorting algorithms.
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#144Earlier quoted context omitted.
Nah, mainstream social networks are new.
Yeah, if you're living a decade ago. By 2005, MySpace was such a big deal that if you were a student without one, you'd feel like you were missing out on something important socially, and by 2008, Facebook had pretty much everybody, including grandparents, as a user. Nowadays the center is shifting again, and most of the people I know have started using Tumblr as their social locus, but it probably won't overtake FB.…
This was written in 2004.
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#145One weird thing. Site is hosted in sites.google.com, and content is published on 2004, however Google sites launched in 2007, which came from acquisition of JotSpot, which was launched in 2006: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Sites
My bad, JotSpot existed in 2004, so this might be legit. Spooky accurate predictions though..
Back in the day stevey rehosted his blog on 3 or 4 different blogging services IIRC.
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#1461. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…
> 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. This failed hard.
Not according to http://visual.ly/most-popular-programming-languages-2013. Clojure alone is in 10th place for code submitted to codeeval.com in 2013.
Edit: http://www.tiobe.com/index.php/content/paperinfo/tpci/index.... appears less focused on web development and startups (it puts VB ahead of Ruby and leaves Clojure and Scala out completely) and even this ranking puts Lisp (presumably CL) at #13 overall.
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#1471. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…
JSON Databases have passed relational in popularity? I don't know that I believe that.
Anyone know if there's a NoSQL/SQL market share comparison out there?
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#148Earlier quoted context omitted.
I really don't see threads being used explicitly more today then they were 10 years ago. The number of programmers who are proficient in dealing with locks, semaphores, etc...doesn't seem to have grown much (perhaps not outpacing the overall rate). If anything, we have a lot more code these days that is not explicitly multi-threaded but is implicitly concurrent in some other way that may or may not use threads under…
Exactly, in fact I'd say there's a lot more multithreading going on today, it's just that it's hidden behind whatever JEE framework people are using. This isn't a bad thing, enterprise developers (i.e. 90% of us) shouldn't have to worry about mutexes any more than they have to worry about interrupts or sorting algorithms.
Out of interest, how does an enterprise developer (whatever that means) ensure consistency of data and good performance, the two competing aims of a decent mutex/lock strategy? Is it taken on trust that someone else handles this, and therefore hidden in 'safe' data structures or... ?
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#1491. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…
JSON Databases have passed relational in popularity? I don't know that I believe that. Anyone know if there's a NoSQL/SQL market share comparison out there?
They are becoming popular but there is no way they surpass relational databases in use.
Re: Ten predictions (2004)
#150Does anyone know why XML was so hyped when it came out? I remember reading article after article about how great it was and how it was going to revolutionize everything. Looking back on it, it all seems kind of silly.
I still use XML/XSLT daily.