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Stupid, Stupid xBox

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Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#171

I see a couple comments here, including the highest voted top level comment, questioning how the xbox can be "crushing" their competition given that a straightforward reading of console sales indicates things aren't so cut and dried. However, the xbox is crushing its competition, in several ways, and let me explain why a naive reading of unit sales is misleading. Many consoles sell at a loss, especially initially, or…

I am just curious - where are you getting the console costs from? From what I know this information is highly sensitive and even most insiders don't have an access. Also, what scale do you use to compare costs? From the fact that you call Kinect (sold ~18M [1]) "one of the most popular consumer electronic devices in history" and Move (sold ~15M[2]) "has not taken off" it appears that either you are using some kind of…

Found a newer source than the wikipedia citiations: http://www.hypable.com/2013/02/12/kinect-sales-reach-24-mill...

24 Million Kinects and 76 million XBoxes!

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#172

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am just curious - where are you getting the console costs from? From what I know this information is highly sensitive and even most insiders don't have an access. Also, what scale do you use to compare costs? From the fact that you call Kinect (sold ~18M [1]) "one of the most popular consumer electronic devices in history" and Move (sold ~15M[2]) "has not taken off" it appears that either you are using some kind of…

Found a newer source than the wikipedia citiations: http://www.hypable.com/2013/02/12/kinect-sales-reach-24-mill... 24 Million Kinects and 76 million XBoxes!

Thanks. So even with the most up to date numbers Kinect does not seem to be crushing Move.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#173

I see a couple comments here, including the highest voted top level comment, questioning how the xbox can be "crushing" their competition given that a straightforward reading of console sales indicates things aren't so cut and dried. However, the xbox is crushing its competition, in several ways, and let me explain why a naive reading of unit sales is misleading. Many consoles sell at a loss, especially initially, or…

If you look at what Microsoft has actually said about it's gaming division it has lost a lot of money that's yet to be paid back. (Not to mention plenty of internal cost shifting that makes things even worse.) Based on the size of there investment in both R&D and other company's it's been a horrible investment that's unlikely to ever be paid back when you include basic opportunity costs.

If you really want to look at sales, games are far from the only revenue source, accessory, downloads, XBOX live are all significant. Nintendo has made a lot of money reselling legacy games. They may be cheap but there is no R&D costs and they get everything not just a tiny slice of a 3rd party game.

As to loyalty, that's next to non existent in the console market. You get a slight bump on the next generation and that's about it.

PS: From a pure ROI standpoint Nintendo crushed the completion this round. Unfortunately the Wii U does not seem to be making the same headway.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#174
post #158

I see a couple comments here, including the highest voted top level comment, questioning how the xbox can be "crushing" their competition given that a straightforward reading of console sales indicates things aren't so cut and dried. However, the xbox is crushing its competition, in several ways, and let me explain why a naive reading of unit sales is misleading. Many consoles sell at a loss, especially initially, or…

Thank you for this insightful commentary. I wanted to add that there is a general vibe in this overall thread (not your comment - the vibe that you have responded to) that Microsoft essentially muscled their way into the console industry and achieved market dominance, largely because of their financial abilities. Certainly, their financial abilities allowed them to shoulder the losses on hardware, but as you have poi…

Well put, and although I may be somewhat biased, I agree -- financial muscle only gave us the ability to get on the field, it doesn't help you win or have a long-term strategy. The original hardware profile (PC-like so tools were available) and including a HDD was what allowed us to get game developers on-board quickly. Including the HDD and the NIC were also the bets, and as I tried to say in my original post, these were the innovations and the bets on the living-room Trojan horse -- we could afford to include these things because the console business model involved an audience size, a higher bill-of-material and a payback model which things like set-top-boxes and WebTV did not. Securing a few awesome first- and second-/third-party games exclusively to the console was also a critical tactic early on. I remain somewhat surprised that outside Halo there are no longer standout exclusive titles. I don't know why that effort has been dropped, that's stupid, too.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#175

I have heard people still there arguing that the transition of the brand from hardcore gamers to casual users and tv-uses was an intentional and crafted success. It was not. It was an accident Oh common man, YES it was intentional. MS worked its ass off on transitioning to casual users. Changing the ENTIRE UI, the addition of Avatars (MS's version of Nintendo's Miis), the advertising and marketing.

i'm honestly not sure if you're being sarcastic or not. if you are: heh, good one. if you're not: there's nothing wrong with putting some of your wood behind encouraging casual gaming and expanding your market, but putting ALL of your wood behind it? what else did they get accomplished in this time period? not enough other things if you take a look at how many people and how much money was being spent on R&D in that division.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#176

I've also been yelling this to my friends for some time. I actually can't figure out why Apple hasn't yet released an Apple TV with a more powerful graphics and some active cooling, plus a controller. Allow iOS games and you have a serious, serious competition crushing game platform with a TON of existing games and content. Instantly.

No storage. Where is the AppleTV supposed to keep the gigabytes needed to run some of these titles? Is it going to stream off the cloud every time you run it?

yes, it would have to be a new Apple-TV with at least some more local storage. the current models have 8GB, I think. tweaking that up to 128GB or 256GB would open up a lot of possibilities without making a $199 price-point impossible. but hey, what do i know.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#177

I see a couple comments here, including the highest voted top level comment, questioning how the xbox can be "crushing" their competition given that a straightforward reading of console sales indicates things aren't so cut and dried. However, the xbox is crushing its competition, in several ways, and let me explain why a naive reading of unit sales is misleading. Many consoles sell at a loss, especially initially, or…

I am just curious - where are you getting the console costs from? From what I know this information is highly sensitive and even most insiders don't have an access. Also, what scale do you use to compare costs? From the fact that you call Kinect (sold ~18M [1]) "one of the most popular consumer electronic devices in history" and Move (sold ~15M[2]) "has not taken off" it appears that either you are using some kind of…

That's comparing the number of Kinects sold to total Move controllers which include people buying multiple controllers and the Navigation controller.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#178

This is a very revealing article: - It gives official confirmation of the (somewhat obvious) idea that the XBox was a defensive move against general living-room entertainment boxes. - It shows that he has a very distorted view of the gaming landscape, if the truly thinks that the XBox is the dominant platform, or that mobile games are a genuine threat to console gaming (they most certainly are not). - He singles out…

"- It shows that he has a very distorted view of the gaming landscape, if the truly thinks that the XBox is the dominant platform, or that mobile games are a genuine threat to console gaming (they most certainly are not)." The threat of mobile gaming on the PC/Console gaming landscape has been recognized by some of the largest stars in the industry, eg: Gabe Newell states Valve wants the PC in the living room but the…

Pardon my skepticism.

Notice how Gabe is talking about how Apple is a threat not to consoles, but to PCs moving into the living room (i.e. his company's plans). To people who don't know the industry well, this might not be easily differentiable, but the reality is that the two come from fundamentally different lineages.

The thing that sells gaming platforms is not "natural progression into the living room", not an "upgrade cycle", not "development tools". It's the games.

If Apple takes a similar approach to living-room gaming as they took to the iPhone, with an open development platform, or an "Apple TV" that plays games, but is not primarily focused on games, you'll see roughly the same quality of games come out there as on the iPhone. And notice how no iPhone apps sell for more than 99¢ these days.

Apple has no history of game development. It's not a part of their DNA. And the gaming industry is a difficult business to succeed in. So to take any other approach would be monumentally difficult for them.

The biggest threat to console gaming is not Apple. It's the consoles themselves.

Consider the case of the iPhone vs. handheld consoles. The iPhone was released in the heyday of the Nintendo DS. The DS sold like hotcakes throughout its lifecycle, and didn't slow down at all even as the iPhone's app store exploded onto the scene.

It was only once the 3DS came out that handeld consoles started to have difficulties. Of course now everyone starts blaming smartphones for taking the market away from them, but look at the console: it has a lineup of games that's mediocre at best, it focused on 3D features that nobody cares about, it had hardware flaws like a terrible battery life, and it was very expensive at launch. No wonder it disappointed.

If consoles end up failing, they will fail on their own merits. It won't be because of an app store.

Re: Stupid, Stupid xBox

#180
post #165
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

According to wikipedia ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_best-selling_video_game... ), there have been 618.24 million XBox 360 games sold, and 863.53 million Wii games sold as of December 31st 2012. Nintendo is bigger on the 1st party games, though, so who knows whether it's made more for 3rd party devs or not.

You also have to consider average selling price and DLC sales. Higher ASP + DLC could easily make a 360 version far more profitable for devs than a Wii version, even at half the units.

Marginal cost for a software copy isn't high enough to make a $10 price bump and some DLC result in twice the profit. I don't think DLC is that big a factor except on the mega-hits that people play online for a year after purchase.
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