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Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

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Re: Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

#91

Post by Cushman »

djt wrote: post #56
downandout wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Two does not necessarily make a trend, to be sure. However, if the odds are 1 in 10,000, a small number of incidents quickly become a significant indicator that the way this guy handles cases dramatically increases the likelihood of suicide. I don't know if any reports have been done on the subject that would be relevant here (specific to federal defendants, as they generally are looking at more time and are more lik…

Two is a pretty low sample for it to be statistically significant. Anecdotaly, a friend of mine committed suicide and I later found out he was going to jail for robbery.

Two is not a sample size. The sample size here is the number of defendants prosecuted.

Two events can be very significant if the prior probability of the event is very low.

Re: Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

#92

Post by tomjen3 »

mistercow wrote: post #88
downandout wrote: post #48

The reality is that it is quite rare for a federal defendant to kill themselves. To have 2 of them (that we know about) stemming from prosecutions by one individual, I would have to say, is pretty remarkable. While it could just be a coincidence, the one common denominator in these two statistically rare incidents is Stephen Heymann. We'll just call him "Suicide Steve". On a somewhat related note, the callousness of…

>To have 2 of them (that we know about) stemming from prosecutions by one individual, I would have to say, is pretty remarkable. While it could just be a coincidence, the one common denominator in these two statistically rare incidents is Stephen Heymann. Careful. You are subtly reusing evidence in an invalid way. The reason that Heymann's record is under examination in the first place is that Swartz committed suicid…

I a court of law, or over a dinner with a mathematican, you are absolutely right.

In real terms -- in getting the prosecutor removed from office, in stopping these kinds of mindless overuse of federal reach, it is best to count both, and use the nickname 'Suicide Steve'.

Re: Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

#93

Post by mistercow »

Cushman wrote: post #90
mistercow wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>To have 2 of them (that we know about) stemming from prosecutions by one individual, I would have to say, is pretty remarkable. While it could just be a coincidence, the one common denominator in these two statistically rare incidents is Stephen Heymann. Careful. You are subtly reusing evidence in an invalid way. The reason that Heymann's record is under examination in the first place is that Swartz committed suicid…

The point of the prosecutor's fallacy isn't that you should ignore evidence, it's that you must include all the evidence in calculations of probability. Swartz' suicide is inductive evidence for the hypothesis "Steve Heymann caused Jonathan James' suicide", you can't just ignore it.

I'm not saying to ignore it. I'm saying not to double-count it.

>Swartz' suicide is inductive evidence for the hypothesis "Steve Heymann caused Jonathan James' suicide",

That's actually a separate hypothesis.

Re: Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

#94

Post by mistercow »

tomjen3 wrote: post #92
mistercow wrote: post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>To have 2 of them (that we know about) stemming from prosecutions by one individual, I would have to say, is pretty remarkable. While it could just be a coincidence, the one common denominator in these two statistically rare incidents is Stephen Heymann. Careful. You are subtly reusing evidence in an invalid way. The reason that Heymann's record is under examination in the first place is that Swartz committed suicid…

I a court of law, or over a dinner with a mathematican, you are absolutely right. In real terms -- in getting the prosecutor removed from office, in stopping these kinds of mindless overuse of federal reach, it is best to count both, and use the nickname 'Suicide Steve'.

I think it warrants investigation. If we have sufficient outside evidence to support the hypothesis, then of course go after him. But if the truth is that this is par for the course, and all prosecutors are driving defendants to suicide, then it would be very bad to crucify this one guy. Nothing stops progress like a good scapegoat.

Re: Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

#95

Post by RobotCaleb »

ars wrote: post #46
monsterix wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Please 'know' before taking sides. It's easy to comment, and opine, than to know. Here are some insights from Wikipedia: US has had the highest incarceration rate in past decade [1]. Why so? Does it mean more percentage of citizens are lately turning into what one would qualify as a criminal, a thief or a murderer? Or otherwise. Quoting from Wikipedia: A. "The United States has 5% of the world's population and 25% of…

What does this have to do with what jamesaguilar posted? > No. Surely, something else is broken. Really? There are no other options you can think of? Perhaps the US is simply stricter? I quote from the article this image is from: "Still, it is the length of sentences that truly distinguishes American prison policy. Indeed, the mere number of sentences imposed here would not place the United States at the top of the i…

Are you implying that there's a direct correlation to people correlated vs IQ level/lead count in blood? Or is this just a case of pirates vs global warming? [0]

Thanks for the link,btw. That was fascinating.

[0] http://blog.lib.umn.edu/farre212/f11psy1001ds1415/Correlatio...

Re: Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

#96

Post by Cushman »

mistercow wrote: post #93
Cushman wrote: post #90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point of the prosecutor's fallacy isn't that you should ignore evidence, it's that you must include all the evidence in calculations of probability. Swartz' suicide is inductive evidence for the hypothesis "Steve Heymann caused Jonathan James' suicide", you can't just ignore it.

I'm not saying to ignore it. I'm saying not to double-count it. >Swartz' suicide is inductive evidence for the hypothesis "Steve Heymann caused Jonathan James' suicide", That's actually a separate hypothesis.

Can you describe the point at which double counting is occurring? My hypothesis is, "Steve Heymann's defendants are more likely than others to commit suicide". I propose to determine with what likelihood a criminal defendant will commit suicide, determine with what likelihood Steve Heymann's defendants have historically committed suicide, and compare the two numbers. How does excluding Aaron Swartz from consideration make my conclusion better reflect reality?

Re: Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

#97

Post by duaneb »

downandout wrote: post #48

The reality is that it is quite rare for a federal defendant to kill themselves. To have 2 of them (that we know about) stemming from prosecutions by one individual, I would have to say, is pretty remarkable. While it could just be a coincidence, the one common denominator in these two statistically rare incidents is Stephen Heymann. We'll just call him "Suicide Steve". On a somewhat related note, the callousness of…

It's also possible hackers tend to be more depressed. That would not surprise me considering the stereotypical hacker's isolated lifestyle. Aaron certainly had a history of depression and doesn't really strike me as stereotypical or average in any way, though.

Re: Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

#98

Post by Fjolle »

cecilpl wrote: post #74
Fjolle wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You assume way too much. I highly doubt that federal defendants are 10 times less likely to commit suicide than the general population in USA. For me personally two is still waaay to low for it to be considered anything but a fluke.

The general population suicide rate is about 1 in 10,000, which is what the GP quoted. What's your source for saying it's 1 in 1000?

I apparently read his post as 1/100.000.

Re: Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

#99

Post by ars »

RobotCaleb wrote: post #95
ars wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does this have to do with what jamesaguilar posted? > No. Surely, something else is broken. Really? There are no other options you can think of? Perhaps the US is simply stricter? I quote from the article this image is from: "Still, it is the length of sentences that truly distinguishes American prison policy. Indeed, the mere number of sentences imposed here would not place the United States at the top of the i…

Are you implying that there's a direct correlation to people correlated vs IQ level/lead count in blood? Or is this just a case of pirates vs global warming? [0] Thanks for the link,btw. That was fascinating. [0] http://blog.lib.umn.edu/farre212/f11psy1001ds1415/Correlatio...

It's not me implying it - the article I linked to did, and pretty conclusively too.

That graph you posted is messed up (yes I get it's a joke), but the spacing between dots randomly changes from 20 to 40 years. That graph actually demonstrates that there is no correlation, otherwise they would not have tried to mislead people.

Re: Prosecutor pursuing Aaron Swartz linked to suicide of another hacker

#100

Post by regularfry »

jamesaguilar wrote: post #82
regularfry wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the defendant kills themselves before trial, that's a failure to prosecute. If the prosecutor caused that suicide, that must count against them, no?

Why would it count against you if you are performing your duties both morally and legally, and something outside of your control and responsibility happens? So, no. This does not count against.

I have difficulty seeing driving a (apparently innocent) defendant to suicide as morally defensible. Besides, their goal should be conviction, not death. They failed to secure a conviction. They failed.
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