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Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

reuters.com

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Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#81

Post by hedora »

jimmar wrote: post #49
dabinat wrote: post #27

Prediction: this causes a recession in two years, right after a Democrat wins the White House, who will be blamed for it. The economy will turn around after a few years, just in time for a Republican to win and claim they fixed it. This is how Republicans have a reputation for being economically savvy despite actual evidence to the contrary, because the general population doesn’t understand that economics runs on a t…

So, you're aligned with President Trump who wants to cut rates, then?

I read the comment as: Trump’s policies are all forcing the US into stagflation so hard the fed has to do this, knowing it’ll cause a recession.

Fed actions typically take a few years to be felt, regardless of administration.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#82

Post by exe34 »

beej71 wrote: post #53
vasco wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Easy fix, have the democrats lose the next election and you break the spell. It's all military industrial complex anyway.

I wish they'd lost in 2020, that's for sure.

Would have thinned the herd nicely by botching COVID and saved a ton on welfare.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#83

Post by miltonlost »

im_down_w_otp wrote: post #55

It bugs me that the Fed has no mechanism to really deal with supply-shock driven inflation. Prices are shooting up, but not strongly correlated to money supply at the moment. They’re shooting up because there are a dozen or more entirely capricious and totally self-inflicted supply-shocks due to bizzaro tariff “policy”, disastrous military adventurism, and general erosion of the USD the prime vessel for international…

Yeeep, inflation right now is not a monetary phenomenon. There's also general corporate greed and ever-increasing monopolization, helped out by Trump's lax regulatory hand

Interest rates rising aren't going to fix these sources of inflation.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#85

Post by chunky1994 »

tedggh wrote: post #37
iamnothere wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Higher rates means financing/borrowing is more expensive. Mortgage rates will go up, possibly pushing home prices down. This is neutral for buyers because of higher rates, but bad for sellers. Loans (personal or business) will be harder to come by. Layoffs, or at least hiring freezes, are more likely. Companies will move into a defensive rather than an growth mode. Higher unemployment will lead to more desperation, a…

“Higher rates means financing/borrowing is more expensive. Mortgage rates will go up,…” This is highly inaccurate. The 10 year US treasury is a better metric for predicting mortgage rates. We saw this during the past interest rate cuts, interest for loans and mortgages still went up, remember? I do, because I was borrowing at the time. And why was that? Because the 10-year treasury continued going up, and that matter…

Variable rate (loans) track the Fed rate. Fixed rate (loans) track the long term treasury yields.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#86

Post by bwb »

darth_avocado wrote: post #52
bwb wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Definitely the right move, 100% agree. I don't think that mortgage rates are going to go down; I think they will go up. Just my opinion. I also think oil is about to go up even more, maybe for multiple years, which is going to be inflationary on everything we do. But, could be really good for solar growth, electrification, and electric cars.

Re: mortgage rates https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2026/09/16/heres-wha...

Remind me in 6 months :)

I'll be you; they are higher this time.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#87

Post by verelo »

evanwolf wrote: post #63
verelo wrote: post #11

Edit: Whoever the hell flagged this lol....people were complaining the parent comment wasn't helpful so I took time to write a thoughtful response with citations. You can't win around here. --- The counterintuitive part is that a lower Fed rate doesn't necessarily mean cheaper borrowing for the government. The Fed sets an overnight rate; someone lending for ten years cares about inflation and interest rates over thos…

I thought bumping up the prime rate slowed consumer spending. But the recent price hikes are because supply is hosed (oil, tariffs), not that demand has been bidding up prices. So how is this supposed to help?

I mean, if predicting market behaviour was that simple, I'd be very rich by now. This is another unique moment, the beginning of the end of an empire possibly. Some unusual things are going to happen and it'll be tricky to predict reliably.

Best thing we can hope for here is Trump sees an obvious way out of this: return the economy to a predicable machine, reduce spending, tax the ultra wealthy, and ditch tariffs. But I don't think much of that's likely to occur.

We're in unchartered territory in many ways. Good luck.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#88

Post by mig39 »

ndesaulniers wrote: post #71
daviding wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(deleted, political, no point)

> The important thing is really who's on the girl's soccer team I've not heard this expression before; can someone explain it to me?

I think they're referring to the obsession that some people have to trans issues.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#89

Post by almostjazz »

ndesaulniers wrote: post #71
daviding wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

(deleted, political, no point)

> The important thing is really who's on the girl's soccer team I've not heard this expression before; can someone explain it to me?

I may be wrong but I think they are referring to the Republican party's position on trans athletes in sports (literally, who is allowed on a girls sports team) being the only thing that matters to some voters.

Re: Fed hikes rates as inflation worries push up bond yields

#90

Post by jfengel »

Scottn1 wrote: post #66
dabinat wrote: post #27

Prediction: this causes a recession in two years, right after a Democrat wins the White House, who will be blamed for it. The economy will turn around after a few years, just in time for a Republican to win and claim they fixed it. This is how Republicans have a reputation for being economically savvy despite actual evidence to the contrary, because the general population doesn’t understand that economics runs on a t…

At what point into a presidential term does it become their actual mess? And is there evidence of a time delay? Because by that argument, the mess we are in would been caused by Democrats.

Usually, months to years. The economy is a very big ship and slow to steer.

This particular crisis is quite abrupt, caused by a sharp jump in the price of oil. Most presidents don't really deserve either the credit or fault that they receive on the economy, but in this case there's a very clear and direct connection.

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