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Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

dank.systems

201–210 of 642 posts

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suck at chess. Are you saying I can't be intelligent?

is that what I'm saying? or am I talking about AGI? perhaps there's some irony here to be explored when it comes to basic reading comprehension gaps

That's a polite way to put it. :-)

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#202
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The actual current frontier plays somewhere around GM level. https://chessbench-ai.github.io/#leaderboard It's also worth noting that the very latest models (GPT-6 and Fable 5.1) actually play worse than their immediate predecessors, so it is likely that the labs are not benchmaxxing for this yet. If they did, I'm sure they could come up with something superior to humans. But there is probably very little demand for…

I know HN readers and posters just read numbers and can't be bothered to read, but please read the methodology before making any claims. > About their ELO ratings from their own website: > A field-relative rating calculated within ChessBench. It compares performance among the tested models and is not a direct equivalent of a human chess rating. I am around 1600 elo in over the board I can mop up Astra Fable etc even…

> even if I give them literal infinite time and all the subagents and internet access..

Don't use the word infinite in any CS claims. They can recreate or approximate monte Carlo tree search and it technically is still a correct solution in your framing of the problem so long they defeat you.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#203

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn't how intelligence works. The LLM may not be able to play chess directly through inference, but it can write a program to do it and execute that program. Same as how human intelligence works. We can't fly, but we can build planes.

Human beings can play chess directly without coding up a tool.

Asking an LLM to play chess by writing algebraic notation is like asking a human to play chess blindfolded.

Yes some people can do it but most people can't even if they're unusually intelligent.

You really need to be giving the LLM a board representation.

EDIT: I see that they actually were giving the LLMs a board representation and they still played badly. Fair enough then.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#204
post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The actual current frontier plays somewhere around GM level. https://chessbench-ai.github.io/#leaderboard It's also worth noting that the very latest models (GPT-6 and Fable 5.1) actually play worse than their immediate predecessors, so it is likely that the labs are not benchmaxxing for this yet. If they did, I'm sure they could come up with something superior to humans. But there is probably very little demand for…

I know HN readers and posters just read numbers and can't be bothered to read, but please read the methodology before making any claims. > About their ELO ratings from their own website: > A field-relative rating calculated within ChessBench. It compares performance among the tested models and is not a direct equivalent of a human chess rating. I am around 1600 elo in over the board I can mop up Astra Fable etc even…

HackerNews is Gell-Mann amnesia that refreshes on every comment on every thread.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#205

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

> current frontier models > Gemini 2.5 Pro, O3, Claude Sonnet 3.7 and ChatGPT 4.1 The gap in capabilities between those models which they tested, and actual current frontier ones is enormous. I would not trust that any conclusions they made are applicable.

So give me a falsifiable point in time, a model you would claim succeeds at the task. One does not get to hotfix-patch updater out of the pressures of reality. Today is the day.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#206

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

> current frontier models > Gemini 2.5 Pro, O3, Claude Sonnet 3.7 and ChatGPT 4.1 The gap in capabilities between those models which they tested, and actual current frontier ones is enormous. I would not trust that any conclusions they made are applicable.

[dead]

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#207

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

> Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for illegal moves. With illegal asks discarded, none of the bots could beat a chess model calibrated to 1100 ELO.

It can be very interesting and even entertaining to know where models don't do well. I don't find something like chess to be very instructive about anything though, nobody is going to pay for AI to play chess at any significant scale even if it could do it perfectly.

> The author of the originating post says that "current frontier models need laborious oversight and guardrails on even the simplest tasks", and he's absolutely correct.

I have found that not to be the case, and I am not an AI power user or cheerleader by any means. There's probably a bunch of even "simplest" tasks where AI doesn't do well and might never. That doesn't take away from the cases where it works well and is a productivity booster. It doesn't even have to be solving millennium prizes or any other breakthrough creativity or reasearch, it's still very useful in places.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#210

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

Llm systems are not really build for adhering to a grammar (other than "a string og tokens").

It is also not clear whether the llm adhering to a grammar is necessary for intelligent agents.

Certainly,a harness can easily correct for it.

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