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Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

dank.systems

41–50 of 642 posts

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#41

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

The story isn't so clear cut. The caveat is: It depends on the task. Are there reams of chess moves that the model can train off of? No. Are there reams of math papers the model can train off of? Yes.

> The caveat is: It depends on the task.

I think the line of criticism around LLMs sucking at chess makes more sense when you understand what the AI companies are saying about the future trajectory of these models.

The entire recursive self improvement story falls apart once you point out that there is not much "cross domain transfer learning". Meaning that training an LLM to become good at coding, math, etc, will eventually transfer into them being good at other skills that were not explicitly trained for.

Using games like chess which have little economic value is actually a good test for this. What's even more surprising about them sucking at chess is how much information about chess strategy exists in the training data.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#42

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

This isn't how intelligence works. The LLM may not be able to play chess directly through inference, but it can write a program to do it and execute that program. Same as how human intelligence works. We can't fly, but we can build planes.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#43

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

[deleted]

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#44

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

> current frontier models > Gemini 2.5 Pro, O3, Claude Sonnet 3.7 and ChatGPT 4.1 The gap in capabilities between those models which they tested, and actual current frontier ones is enormous. I would not trust that any conclusions they made are applicable.

[deleted]

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#46

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

The story isn't so clear cut. The caveat is: It depends on the task. Are there reams of chess moves that the model can train off of? No. Are there reams of math papers the model can train off of? Yes.

>Are there reams of chess moves that the model can train off of? No.

For real??

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#47
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

why don't anthropic and openai ship yolo mode by default?

They do…? Well, “auto” mode has been default in Claude Code for a couple months now. It’s effectively “safer yolo:” tool calls are inspected by a separate classification system (another smaller LLM, I believe) to approve or deny. And you can always layer on additional sandboxing mechanisms to limit the blast radius deterministically.

> They do…? Well, “auto” mode has been default in Claude Code for a couple months now

They have never shipped "yolo" mode by default. Auto mode is not yolo mode. They trained a task specific model just for ensuring the llm didn't accidentally delete every file from your computer.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#48

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

Frontier labs don't care about chess. If OpenAI cared, GPT-7 could be a grandmaster+ level chess player. In fact there's a google paper on grandmaster level chess without search with a 270M transformer. Outside that, there was gpt-3.5-turbo instruct which was incidentally a 1800 lichess elo player that didn't make any illegal moves even after a few thousand moves. Frontier labs care deeply about automating knowledge work and computer use. They are working hard on getting models better and better, and they are succeeding. Astra is a step change on that front. So good luck i guess, if chess performance is your barometer.

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#49

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The story isn't so clear cut. The caveat is: It depends on the task. Are there reams of chess moves that the model can train off of? No. Are there reams of math papers the model can train off of? Yes.

> Are there reams of chess moves that the model can train off of? No. This is as false as something can possibly be. There are open databases of millions of chess games spanning hundreds of years.

It is even worse.. This is a classical reinforcement problem where data generation is easy because the rule set is pre-defined. So you really don't even need any data to start with (but would help).

Re: Why I'm still bearish on LLMs after Navier-Stokes

#50

This April 2026 paper is a fun and related read. https://arxiv.org/html/2509.24239v4 Researchers asked frontier models to play chess. Have a look at the MAR rates in Table 3. When not explicitly told which moves were legal, no model identified legal moves at a rate better than 80%. Many asked for more illegal moves than legal moves. And even when explicitly told which moves were legal, the models continued to ask for…

This isn't how intelligence works. The LLM may not be able to play chess directly through inference, but it can write a program to do it and execute that program. Same as how human intelligence works. We can't fly, but we can build planes.

Thanks for saying this, feels like everyone has gone insane over this stuff.
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