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It becomes clearer to more people that it's impossible to predict the future shape of the global economy due to AI. The more clear it is, the cheaper 30 year bonds become.
You mean due to Trump? Tariffs and Iran war caused this.
Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.
There is 0 risk to getting repaid from the US. We will print for the lenders the exact amount they are promised. Promises kept. All is good
Earlier quoted context omitted.
There is 0 risk to getting repaid from the US. We will print for the lenders the exact amount they are promised. Promises kept. All is good
I feel like there is an inside joke here, so I apologize if I am being a bit spectrum-y taking it at face value. Every sovereign can print money and repay lenders, but doing so cause an inflationary cycle. When it looks like that is inevitable, borrowing rates start spiralling, so you have to print more money, and soon you are Zimbabwe. Like the US is catastrophically indebted -- both parties have been negligent on t…
Italian and Greek bonds now have lower yields/rates (i.e., considered lower risk(?)) than US bonds: * https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/
It becomes clearer to more people that it's impossible to predict the future shape of the global economy due to AI. The more clear it is, the cheaper 30 year bonds become.
Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.
And the incredible thing is that yields are quite low based on historical standards. The risk of lending to most countries at yields that are barely above real inflation is massive for portfolio growth. Let's take the US, where you have to consider lending money to the government for 10 years at 5.009%. This barely covers inflation if you consider real numbers rather than the financial fiction ones that have been pub…
One crucial difference: the US wasn't $40T in debt, and it wasn't pulling trillion dollar deficits. In 1998 the US federal government actually had a surplus! Even 9% interest wasn't going to wreck the Federal budget when the overall amount of debt to be serviced was so much lower.
Everything is relative to size. If your older brother lends you a dollar at 100% daily interest, you can still throw a balled-up Jackson at him a couple days later and walk away clean. But ask anyone who agreed to a crazy 20% interest rate on their car loan what it did to their personal finances, and all you'll hear is horror stories. 9% on $40T would be suicide.
Notice that the stock market is at all time highs because 50% of the economy is grift now and not real. That is why Republicans go into vast deficit spending to pump up AI and worthless "high-tech", "disruptive" defense stocks.
Trump (and British pound saboteur Bessent) don't care one bit if the US plebs and the rest of the world suffer. The game is printing money, give it to grift companies like AI, have family invest early and get out if everything collapses. Probably they get into real estate cheaply due to foreclosures.
Finally some evidence that the system is working. Most countries are borrowing like there's no tomorrow, so obviously rates should go up to compensate the risk of not paying back.
It isn't the debt levels that are causing the rates to spike, rather the start of the emerging Bretton Woods III era.
Italian and Greek bonds now have lower yields/rates (i.e., considered lower risk(?)) than US bonds: * https://www.investing.com/rates-bonds/
Sort of. You also have to consider exchange rate futures, the value of the currency you will be getting paid in may change dramatically.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
conservatives?
Trump, sitting on top of a Republican government, is responsible for 10Trn of the debt, about a quarter. Conservatives gave up on principles long ago and have settled for simply lying about everything, including what's happening and who's responsible for it.