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Given that this is a much simpler problem than a fully humanoid robot, I'm not going to hold my breath for those.
I think the next advancement are robots like the MicroDuck [2], a little gimmicky, but demonstrating higher levels of intelligence that everybody can afford and collaborate on together. Once that has the ability to return to a docking station on low battery and recharge, you basically have a fully autonomous robot pet in your home.
The purpose of building humanoid robots is actually very simple: we want machines to feel lively and familiar. We are not the best creatures at performing every possible job, yet we are so interested in building humanoid robots. Instead, we could build specialized robots for each job and create ways for them to integrate seamlessly into an ecosystem that includes humans and other robots. A cooking robot, for example,…
For example, we bolt robot arms on tables, so that the work space is at a comfortable height for humans, but if the robot arm had the exact same intuition and intelligence as a human, you could just install it onto the floor. Suddenly the entire rationale, the table, which is the representative stand-in for "the world was designed for humans" is gone.
It's not that we necessarily need a specialized machine, it's that a generalized machine doesn't have to be humanoid.
End of the decade is my prediction. We are there GPT Astra shows signs of it. Give it a few more generations. Now if AI robot with compute onboard the robot, that might be multiple decades away, I don’t see compute becoming that abundant and small anytime soon
The real bottleneck is physical. Going from limited volume production to producing these by the millions and eventually billions is going to take some time and an enormous amount of resources and investment. I expect that might take a decade or two to ramp up. The first generations are probably going to be a bit of a toy for rich people as they will likely be a combination of expensive and not limited utility. But that could change rapidly.
The purpose of building humanoid robots is actually very simple: we want machines to feel lively and familiar. We are not the best creatures at performing every possible job, yet we are so interested in building humanoid robots. Instead, we could build specialized robots for each job and create ways for them to integrate seamlessly into an ecosystem that includes humans and other robots. A cooking robot, for example,…
What sort of robot would you need to load and unload a dishwasher, collecting and storing the crockery etc.? What sort of robot would you need to load and unload the laundry, fold and store the clothes? The biggest reason for humanoid robots is that they will need to function in environments designed for humans and used by humans, sometimes even alongside the robots. This is very different to something like a factory…
The purpose of building humanoid robots is actually very simple: we want machines to feel lively and familiar. We are not the best creatures at performing every possible job, yet we are so interested in building humanoid robots. Instead, we could build specialized robots for each job and create ways for them to integrate seamlessly into an ecosystem that includes humans and other robots. A cooking robot, for example,…
What sort of robot would you need to load and unload a dishwasher, collecting and storing the crockery etc.? What sort of robot would you need to load and unload the laundry, fold and store the clothes? The biggest reason for humanoid robots is that they will need to function in environments designed for humans and used by humans, sometimes even alongside the robots. This is very different to something like a factory…
https://www.inceptivemind.com/toyota-gantry-robot-hangs-ceil...
You might now counter that legs are easy and a solved problem, sure, I won't deny that, but the point is that you should try to think out of the box.
I stopped using my Roborock because it was such a pain to move everything out of the way (chairs etc.) so it could do a good job. Once I had a toddler, it was basically impossible to use. Given that this is a much simpler problem than a fully humanoid robot, I'm not going to hold my breath for those.
If we see rapid advances in robotics will alignment become a visceral concern for the population at large?
I love the idea of robot helpers but I don't love the idea of putting cameras all over my house and having ad companies surveil my intimate space. I do not think people are even recognizing the security ramifications of these devices. A picture of your key is enough to replicate it[0], and yet we're just going to put these devices everywhere? LLMs have been pretty easy to jailbreak too, you think thieves aren't just…
So don't buy one from an ad company then? There are home robots that run entirely on-device.
The purpose of building humanoid robots is actually very simple: we want machines to feel lively and familiar. We are not the best creatures at performing every possible job, yet we are so interested in building humanoid robots. Instead, we could build specialized robots for each job and create ways for them to integrate seamlessly into an ecosystem that includes humans and other robots. A cooking robot, for example,…